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Trade declines across the world

Posted by $ blarman 8 years, 3 months ago to Economics
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It is concerning that trade is falling across the globe for all the reasons cited by the Wall Street Journal. But TPP/TPA is a disaster for freedom - including free trade - because it suborns US sovereignty.

I really wished I could have left a comment for the author at the bottom.
SOURCE URL: http://humanevents.com/2016/01/05/battening-down-the-hatches-reminiscent-of-the-1930s/


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    Posted by $ Abaco 8 years, 3 months ago
    The death of the American middle-class has been a major (if not THE major) cause of a global slowdown.
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    • Posted by $ 8 years, 3 months ago
      And not only the American middle-class, but the European middle class as well. Their welfare policies (the same ones we've inclined to especially in the last 20 years) encourage people to move or Shrug. The only growing middle classes are in developing India and to some degree in China. India actually stands a chance of making it stick, but China's policies are going to have to change substantially before the middle class there is really going to take off. My gut tells me that their economy (bolstered by artificial stimulus and currency manipulation) is going to have to implode before it can be built on solid fundamentals.
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      • Posted by term2 8 years, 3 months ago
        How are we going to survive when 1 out of every 7 americans are getting food stamps that the other 6 have to pay for. And thats JUST food stamps.
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        • Posted by edweaver 8 years, 3 months ago
          While it may be 1 in 7 on food stamps, I would suggest there are not 6 payers. Remove children, the 94 million out of the workforce and the elderly on fixed incomes and I would be surprised if there is any more than 3 of the 7 paying for the program.
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          • Posted by term2 8 years, 3 months ago
            good point. I know that our small business has paid $11,000 so far in the last three years into the state unemployment fund (we have had NO layoffs during that time) - that just sits there !!! We only have 5-8 employees. Each year we pay $1300 in state business license fees, $100 local business license fees, and an unknown amount in real estate property taxes (we rent). Thats in addition to the payroll taxes, and several new taxes our traitorous republican governor slipped into the mix that we will have to pay next year. Another hike in sales/use taxes. Lately the government has forced us to account for ALL property used in business and tacked a 1% per year levy on that. Pretty disugsting I think. I really dont see what I get back for all that money.
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            • Posted by edweaver 8 years, 3 months ago
              I hear you. I'm supposed to consider myself one of the lucky one's. In Wisconsin, we have headed a little bit in the the right direction (I'm not really sure of that with the all the gimmicks) and by a little bit, I mean a very, very small amount. Yet our governor keeps saying how much they have done to save the taxpayers. We have been used and abused for so long that the cuts are too small to make a difference. All the taxes and fees amount to slavery.
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        • Posted by $ Abaco 8 years, 3 months ago
          1 out of every 4 children in America is born into poverty. Even if you think poverty is overstated, that's bad.
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          • Posted by edweaver 8 years, 3 months ago
            I have a hard time believing this number. Maybe I would believe it without all the handouts but the poor in this country are really not poor.
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            • Posted by $ 8 years, 3 months ago
              That's because the government manipulates the official poverty floor just like they manipulate every other "official" number regarding jobs and the economy.

              I think the number they need to be screaming from the rooftops are the numbers of Americans on Food Stamps, the numbers on WIC, the numbers on SNAP, and the numbers on any combination of the above.
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    • Posted by $ Thoritsu 8 years, 3 months ago
      Caused by the death of manufacturing in the US and Europe, caused by:
      1) lack of social support for basic hard work vs "my magic talent" NBA/NFL/singing/acting/art. "We are all winners. Just need my big break, and I'll be rich"
      2) preferred trading with partners conducting asymmetric trade warfare
      3) Fools in the US buying cheap crap, rather than quality products, particularly union idiots shopping at Walmart, buying Chinese products putting themselves out of jobs.
      Now we are either service providers or unemployed.
      4) Progressive idiot furthering these problems by pouring money on the fire rather than working on the root causes. (typical behavior for both well-intentioned bleeding hearts and mal-intentioned drug dealers)
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      • Posted by $ jdg 8 years, 3 months ago
        Shopping at WalMart is just common sense. The fact that China can produce many goods more cheaply than the US is a result of overregulation and overtaxation in the US (and greedy unions enabled by corrupt federal agencies). The blame belongs in DC.
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        • Posted by $ Thoritsu 8 years, 3 months ago
          I agree with that, although I don't typically go there because I shop online more and more, and Target et al have equivalent pricing and don't have the same menagerie of missing chromosomes.

          I still think considerable blame is from the unions vs DC, unless you assert all unions power comes from DC. Thus, my comment about the irony in "Pro Union" bumper stickers (I read as "pro union", "pro OSHA", "pro EPA", "anti-capitalist", "anti free market") shopping at free market, Walmart.
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          • Posted by $ jdg 8 years, 3 months ago
            Yes, I believe effectively all of unions' power comes from DC. I would have no problem with unions if they didn't have (1) the power to "represent" individuals who would rather negotiate separately; (2) the power to extort political contributions (as "dues") from their opponents; and (3) exemption from the normal laws covering gang violence. I would even give them back the right to engage in secondary boycotts, which DC took away.
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            • Posted by MountainLady 8 years, 3 months ago
              The problem with unions, as with any other "helping" cooperative, is the lure of power becomes all-consuming.
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              • Posted by $ MichaelAarethun 8 years, 3 months ago
                Unions as you should know by now are the third leg or more like a kick stand to the standard Socialist Triumverate. Have beeen since the 1930's
                One Government and military, Two Big Really big business meaning financial controllers. Three Labor Leaders and very specifically that does not include members just http://leaders.as do the other two. The modern terms are statist, corporatist, labor. Socialist goes in front, fascist tags on the back end. The end result of that effort was National Socialism but they got their start with pure or International Socialism

                Some change have become more apparent. There is always an elitest ruling class in ALL socialist organizations. Plato's escape hatch.

                Even the triumverate has it's heirarchy. Think of the old penny farthing bicycle One Big Wheel, One smaller wheel and a kick stand as modern convenience. Also there is a set of handle bars for steering. Control over Government over Corporate Financial over Labor. Apply what you said to that eighty five or ninety year old framework ha ha ha form to the purists add in the three definitions of left, right, center, Click Click Click it all falls into place.

                Government Over Citizens

                Left but use the center of the left as the false center or as Mike said between Rinos and Reublicans. He's more optomistic and forgiving than I

                Citizens Over Government Right (but to right of tthe false center) and for the most part squarely in the True Center or very close That for us is/was the Constitution.

                That's horizontal vertical is the old God, King Country people changed to People over Government The right according to the left was the seat of power divine right of kings and all that. That job was taken by the left when they quit the classless society and went to a class society. leaders apparatchiks the rest...

                1776 to 1788 the divine right of Kings became the right of citizens and that's where the true power should be seen.

                Unless they abdicate their responsibilities.

                Add in the extremists anarchist to the far right (lack of any government) and a choice of Nazis or National Socialists and Communists or International Socialists as the extremists of the left. Followe by SecProgs, Socialist, Dinos, Democrats and Rinos, Republicans in Left to right order.) All believe in or support Government Over People.

                Easy to understand and explains a lot.

                Their words not mine.

                They just picked up the center marker one day and put it in the center of the left then refused recognize anybody else.
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                • Posted by MountainLady 8 years, 3 months ago
                  I blame Feminists. And one reason is that they have made Big Government a friendly helpful we-can't-do-without-Mommy institution.

                  If you have a chance, go to "One Political Plaza" and read my thread: "Of Mice and Matriarchies, Or How and Why Female Oligarchies Stifle Creativity and Productivity." Comments appreciated.
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      • Posted by term2 8 years, 3 months ago
        I agree with all your points except #3. Buying American doesnt mean its any better, its just more expensive. I buy a lot of chinese parts and subassemblies, and they are every bit as good as what we used to make here, but somewhere between 1/3 and 1/2 the cost. There are a LOT of very good companies in China making high quality stuff much cheaper- and without the hassles of employees here in the USA.
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        • Posted by $ Thoritsu 8 years, 3 months ago
          I agree US made does not equal higher quality on its own, but you can not tell me 10-20 years ago, when this started, Chinese goods were anywhere near the quality of other manufacturers. For example, my brother had a Chinese jack stand fail with a huge casting flaw. They have come a long way now, but they are still not great, unless overseen (or trained) by a Western company.

          I think the "hassles" you describe are the ones I was referring to in #4. OSHA, EPA, unions, etc. These are the agencies driving up the cost to manufacture in the US.

          My point in #3 was since we have opened our market to companies without the EPA, OSHA and union drivers, which the unions find so beneficial, the market has selected the cost/quality point, and those non-compliant companies have killed ours. Shocking. The best irony ever is a pro union bumper sticker in a Walmart parking lot.
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          • Posted by term2 8 years, 3 months ago
            I get equal or better quality from the companies I deal with in china at 1/3 to 1/2 the cost of sourcing them here or building them ourselves. In fact, a lot of suppliers here that offer subassemblies buy them from china and just resell them here rather than make them on their own. An example is a 4 foot 2 conductor trailer plug I get for 65cents from china. Buying the same thing here costs over $2.00, and I bet DelCity gets them from china anyway.
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            • Posted by $ Thoritsu 8 years, 3 months ago
              Now yes, but how was it in 1999?
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              • Posted by term2 8 years, 3 months ago
                Prob in 1999 there were US suppliers that made the products, and the chinese quality wasnt very good. But the chinese were smart and improved their products while our government made it harder to manufacture here. The nail in the coffin will be the $15/hr minimum wage. We will have to lay off half our staff for sure. If we bump the prices of the products, we will lose business for sure.
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                • Posted by jetmec 8 years, 3 months ago
                  Why not have a minimum wage ? Costs keep going up but nt wages! I agree that companys need to make a profit, But do the people who run it need there big wage? the workers make goods and the profit for the company, A simple way would be give a basic wage and the a percentage of the profit to the workers this will help everyone
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                  • Posted by $ 8 years, 3 months ago
                    Minimum wages have never solved any of the problems of business. An interesting thing is to investigate the history of unions and minimum wages in the first place. Look up the history of something called the Davis-Bacon Act (which still governs the prices governments must charge for labor for road construction projects). Black-led companies would underbid the companies who had historically won those contracts (predominantly white companies). These white-run companies had been accustomed to making a lot of money on these contracts because they were largely awarded via cronyism. Instead of trying to present a better bid, they resorted to cronyism and got some of the legislatures to vote in favor of a minimum wage so they could then justify awarding the construction projects to these crony companies instead of the challengers.

                    Should employees be paid what they are worth? Absolutely, and savvy business-owners know and understand this. But therein lies the rub: it is based on the value the employee brings to the company - not some arbitrary mark set by a bureaucrat.
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                  • Posted by $ WilliamShipley 8 years, 3 months ago
                    The only way that a business gets money is to sell goods and services to customers who voluntarily buy them.

                    Each employee must do something that helps perform that task and brings in enough money to pay their salary and all the taxes and government mandated expenses associated as well as actual management costs.

                    You cannot pay someone more than what they bring to the bottom line. If you do, the business is better off without them, so don't hire them. Note this has nothing to do with the overall profitability of the business. The business can be highly profitable but still shouldn't pay individual employees more than they contribute to the bottom line.
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                  • Posted by term2 8 years, 3 months ago
                    A minimum wage is an artificial number that ignores the real value of a worker's time in the global economy for the work they do. The reason wages havent risen lately is that the american workers have been upstaged by people who are willing to work for less, and need the work. The alternative to paying even today's minimum wage is to outsource to a cheaper country OR simply go out of business. The customers here can only pay so much for a product or service, and if we raise the prices they just stop buying.

                    Setting a $15 minimum wage will just eliminate the jobs that arent worth $15 and hour to the customers. Wages are really set by what the customers will pay , not the business owners.

                    For example, in my small company of 8 employees, most of them get $8.25 per hour. We are able to compete in the off road lighting market at this rate. Change minimum wage to $15 per hour, and we are just out of business unless we can cut 4 people out and get the remaining 4 people to do what 8 did before. If we cant get the 4 people to be twice as productive, all 8 lose their jobs. Raising our prices is just not an option, as we would lose significant business and some of the people would lose their jobs anyway.

                    You can blame the government and the federal reserve for the 'costs going up'. In fact, costs are continually going down due to efficiency improvements which go on constantly. Robots do things cheaper, as does automation. Parts get made thinner with cheaper materials too. BUT, the federal reserve prints money, making what we have worth less. Therefore, the prices of things rise in terms of these less valuable dollars. Get rid of the federal reserve's money printing to support Obama's deficits and you would find prices in terms of stable dollars falling, not rising.
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                • Posted by $ Thoritsu 8 years, 3 months ago
                  That was my original point. We let this happen. I'm not arguing that today Chinese can't make quality product, although I would argue you need to be careful in selection. It is hit or miss.
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                  • Posted by $ 8 years, 3 months ago
                    My dad deals with Chinese factories. Their quality control in general is terrible and one reason is because they don't take a long-term view of business: they just don't care about repeat business in many cases. They are in it to get their quick hit and move on.

                    The best thing to befall Chinese manufacturing IMO is for their currency to appreciate and normalize so that the prices of their products don't permit customers to overlook the terrible Q/A failure rates any longer. Once enough of the Chinese manufacturing gets turned down in favor of competitors with a better offering, the Chinese will be forced to revisit their business strategies.
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                  • Posted by term2 8 years, 3 months ago
                    From my experience one must be VERY specific about the specs you want on each thing. If you arent specific, you get some sort of generalized specification that is indigenous to the chinese way of doing things. Quality and specs are often different from what is commonplace here in the US. When I specify exactly what I want, they seem to be good at getting it right.

                    I find it amazing that people here think that increasing the minimum wage is not going to decrease jobs. I say all jobs not worth $15 an hour in this international arena will simply disappear when the government mandates the wage.
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                    • Posted by $ Thoritsu 8 years, 3 months ago
                      That is fine for spec-ed items, but when if you buy COTS parts or equipment, you rely on the supplier's opinion on details and quality.
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                      • Posted by term2 8 years, 3 months ago
                        I agree. normal expected specs on USA things are different from in china
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                        • Posted by $ Thoritsu 8 years, 3 months ago
                          Korea too, but unlike US guys, Asians will go nuts to do what the spec says. US guys may give you more because they think you need it, or less if they think you don't. The reverse is true if they are the customer as well. Demanding to the letter. Sometimes ask for more, but will back off if pressed.
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      • Posted by dbhalling 8 years, 3 months ago
        No not manufacturing. By an attack on inventing. Wealth is created and increased by increasing one's level of technology.

        Manufacturing's importance will continue to decline as 3D printing shows and as the electronic/internet industry killed the manufacturing side of publishing.
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        • Posted by term2 8 years, 3 months ago
          What about the wealth that I wind up with by employing cheap Chinese labor and selling to the relatively rich Americans. Theres no inventing involved except moving manufacturing or software development, or whatever to people who will work for less of my money.
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        • Posted by $ Thoritsu 8 years, 3 months ago
          3D printing is just another technology in manufacturing like standard parts, the assembly line and robotics. It does not make manufacturing irrelevant. It makes it more efficient. Perhaps efficient to the point the US can compete with China et al someday, but not yet.

          If you are making the point the only increase in wealth in manufacturing is throgh manufacturing technology, I would argue the organization and process discipline in the company performing the manufacture are equally important.
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          • Posted by dbhalling 8 years, 3 months ago
            What it means is that manufacture will continue to provide less and less value in the economy, just as agriculture did. Manufacturing zealots are the new Luddites. The ultimate value is always in the creation - invention
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            • Posted by $ Thoritsu 8 years, 3 months ago
              While I agree with your last statement, I don't think manufacturing zealots are Luddites. Perhaps you overstated to make the point clear.
              We manufacture a lot of equipment. We have 10 divisions and about $1B in sales. I can tell you one big difference between a financially successful division and a weak one is operations (supply chain and manufacture). We use zero AM processes (3D printing) except for plastic models and some robotic welding. AM is not ready for prime time, being essentially a weak, brittle casting process. Welding and painting are very important. One of our Italian CEOs (we are part of a $30B company) gave a speech at a CTO (me) conference with the point that engineering development is no good unless it makes money. Innovation (cool stuff) is not enough. It needs cost-effectively solve a problem for someone who understands this and can pay for it. I am with Edison (not a role model to be) on this with the 1%/99% assertion. It is very difficult to sell an idea, but it is very easy to sell a well run business, to your point, even better with solid IP. Half the wealth of the companies in the US is laying around on the floor, in inventory, waste or with overpaid suppliers.
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            • Posted by $ 8 years, 3 months ago
              Invention without application is useless - literally. Manufacturing is by definition a value-added activity in business as it transforms raw materials into finished goods. The goods themselves are of value according to their use, but of far more value than the raw materials. And how many patents are for improvements to manufacturing technology?

              The thing about value in manufacturing is all about how easy it is to copy the process. Why is the recipe for Coke still a hot item? Because no one has figured out how to duplicate it yet! When someone can duplicate a manufacturing process (assuming the means are legal, of course), it means that the intellectual value of that technique can no longer demand a premium price. It is far from being worthless, however.
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  • Posted by $ allosaur 8 years, 3 months ago
    Why would a brave new world for a Socialist Utopia need any trade, albeit free or otherwise?
    Some Marxist great leader sugar daddy will always be there on Candy Mountain in accordance to our needs.
    Ask any skinny North Korean. Don;t think they get any of that diabetes much.
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  • Posted by DrZarkov99 8 years, 3 months ago
    One has to wonder what cookie jars the hands of most of these establishment GOP schills are in. Donald Trump had the most sensible comment about the TPP/TPA when he pointed out how it wasn't possible to negotiate the best deal for each party when so many are involved, and that separate trade deals with each party served each other's interest better.
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  • Posted by dbhalling 8 years, 3 months ago
    Scary, but not surprising as Obama has used the FDR playbook and the Republicans, they also replayed the stupid responses of their forebears.
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  • Posted by wiggys 8 years, 3 months ago
    Interesting that Mr. Barone is now writing about the decline in world trade that has actually been going on for about 6 years. Where has he been?
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  • Posted by jimjamesjames 8 years, 3 months ago
    Research the Baltic Index.
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01...
    In short, there is less tonnage of dry goods being shipped, so much that the major carriers are in precarious financial shape.
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    • Posted by $ MichaelAarethun 8 years, 3 months ago
      That's bad news because it's one of the key component parts of having more wars. Gulf War I & II they traded out entire divisions and corps with ALL their equipment and pogy bait supplies. The old method was trade out people with personal gear and leave the equipment in situ back hauling repairable items only.

      Train, Truck, cargo ships including stevedores and security guards at ports, ship's crews and ship repairs and ship building spiked sharply and of course so did commercial and military air cargo as a result. Foreign aid military and otherwise the same.

      The problem while somethings infrastructure wise are built we grunts mostly break things and provide appoints at each gate to paradise you are trying pass and with the gate keeper you are trying to impress. Many lines no waiting.

      The peace time version is much the same it's called pork. Something really strange for a muslim to support but it's cost us nine trillion in increased debt so far.
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  • Posted by freedomforall 8 years, 3 months ago
    The source of this story is imo a neocon rag that has a vested interest in misleading readers.
    In particular the article lies about the TPP being a "trade agreement" and how foolish everyone is to oppose it.
    Attention Human Events, some of us are not that stupid. The TPP is an arrogant attempt to destroy national sovereignty to benefit corrupt corporate interests and puppet government officials.
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    • Posted by $ MichaelAarethun 8 years, 3 months ago
      For the benefit of the newcomers neocon or neo conservatives are one part of the Republican In Name only family who drifted across from the left in order to get elected in a district belonging to the right wing of the left. Confused? Consider them a successful raiding party that became carpetbaggers.
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      • Posted by $ MichaelAarethun 8 years, 3 months ago
        trade may have declined but we are now shipping oil first time since 1970 in direct competition with the middle east and venezuela. how about that. Private enterprise took the bit in it's teeth first day out of thralldom.
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  • Posted by MagicDog 8 years, 3 months ago
    I already have at least one of just about everything the third world sweat shops can produce. Why buy more? And, I can get it for wholesale on-line.
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    • Posted by $ MichaelAarethun 8 years, 3 months ago
      Many of them are not sweat shops. They are in line with their local economic condition. China for example is all about individual cell radio phones and laptops or tablets. Worse than a London subway. 'The World Is Flat' describes the wages paid in India to those with educations as they outsource the USA. Their dentists go where the teeth are. Their computer people stay at home and come out ahead. More to your point is Ukraine. One of Bush's screw up. Instead of supporting with cash payments a hundred billionaires and the Grupa Semma they could have have concentrated on the outlying former parts of the Soviet Union and went for paring away their slave state assets. Same for Kurdistan. Why are they always sucking up to the other side and failing in the stated mission. It's like every President since Reagan is employed by foreign countries and foreign political systems - Ditsy Debbie and company included.
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      • Posted by $ MichaelAarethun 8 years, 3 months ago
        Now the silovaki but still the same people in charge or pulling the strings. Who? One or more of the 564 Billionaires according to one google source. the ones the SCOTUS decided could buy and sell your politicians,, candidates, elected officials, and your votes using money as free speech.Your rights? You have none. Best course of action? Learn English if you are an Optimist, Russian or Chinese if you are a Pessimist and if objectively practical a choice of Marxmanship or Marksmanship.
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  • Posted by illucio 8 years, 3 months ago
    It´s true, we all are so used to adding comments in every section we come across nowadays that, when that possibility isn´t offered; it somewhat feels like censorship or "a loss of voice".

    As for trade and recession well, it really isn´t easy to put a specific reason. Usually, there are multiple ones and yes; alot are simply beyond our grasp and control. The market, or the notion of "the free market" is, as many other concepts; abstract as well.

    Ever since the dawn of man markets have had certain leverage and control by more than one factor. Government too can be one of these muffers, but it certainly isn´t the only one. So, you see; the complexity is not easy to understand either (though we do have the possibility of understanding, that I´m confident of).

    A strike can cause a problem in the market, so can a limit to price (to put two extremes into context). For instance, the Pear market can suffer a blow if a production line doesn´t reach a certain desired offer. If we consider the fact that this particular agricultural industry is owned by a monopoly; the fruit itself might just be left there to rot should the price not be met. This has happenned.

    A strike, on the other hand; is the power conveyed to the workers who, should they be unpleased with the share they believe is fair on their part; they can cripple an enterprise when regulations are external presence have more control than the entrepeneurs themselves.

    Both examples are real, modern day situations that should be dealt with somehow. There are many "hows" we well know of; yet the question is which is the least damaging one in general; or the most "constructive" for the short, medium and even long run.
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  • Posted by term2 8 years, 3 months ago
    There are a lot of reasons for declines in trade. Labor disputes, delays, and high terminal charges eat up lots of the savings gleaned by buying from china. Sending things by express air shipments is even more expensive and frought with delays caused by stupid customs inspections and fees.

    BUT, the hassle of making things here in the USA with the employee regulations and taxes, not to mention the various agencies on your back for the slightest violation of their onerous labor laws- increases the costs of any alternative.
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