Economy in freefall? 1Q revision shows shrinkage of 2.9%

Posted by richrobinson 11 years, 10 months ago to News
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Weather related? Really?


All Comments

  • Posted by Solver 11 years, 10 months ago in reply to this comment.
    If this quarter's annual GDP growth is still below 2.5% then that pull to push down is pragmatically justified by the greater good of politics.
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  • Posted by 11 years, 10 months ago in reply to this comment.
    That's a long pull. The original estimate was for a 2.6% growth in GDP. A lot of economists should lose credibility but we seldom hold them accountable. Obamanomics is a failure.
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  • Posted by Solver 11 years, 10 months ago
    By statistically pushing the GDP growth rate down for last quarter, they can pull it up for this quarter...poof...no recession.
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  • Posted by CircuitGuy 11 years, 10 months ago
    ZeroHedge contributes here. I'm glad to see him mentioned in a major commentary outlet. Maybe that happens all the time, but it's never happened to me; so I find it cool.

    Regarding the content, if we dismiss the effects of winter, what unusual thing happened caused the drop? That's a hard question to answer b/c any answer can be seen as a post hoc anomaly hunting, even if you're right.

    I don't see anything unusual (compared to the previous two years happening). I think it's weather and other random processes. We have a tendency to look for meaning in random patterns.

    I have seen first-hand strictly anecdotal evidence that the weather impacted the economy. My wife's practice was slow Q1 and got a deluge of work right around the thaw. That's one data point, and her clients are older than the population; so we can't draw any conclusions from this.

    I believe this is noise.
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  • Posted by Robbie53024 11 years, 10 months ago in reply to this comment.
    True. The only good thing about all the alien children coming is that it has increased the overall IQ ;-)
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  • Posted by freedomforall 11 years, 10 months ago
    At first glance I read it as I.Q. shrinkage of 2.9%.

    Easy to believe that of voters based on the POTUS of the past 7 elections.
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  • Posted by $ jbrenner 11 years, 10 months ago in reply to this comment.
    They were hired for Obamacare. Good little moocher here, you get your healthcare. Bad, bad little objectivist, we'll put you on the other (death panels, Sarah Palin?) list.
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  • Posted by $ jbrenner 11 years, 10 months ago in reply to this comment.
    If I remember right, Obama had budgeted for a huge increase in the number of IRS employees. There must be a few IT server people in there somewhere.
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  • Posted by $ jbrenner 11 years, 10 months ago
    If you would like a really good shrug job, go to the IRS, and apply to be a data retrieval expert.
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  • Posted by Eudaimonia 11 years, 10 months ago
    Yeah, "weather related" - an "unusually cold winter" - which they'll spin as more proof of "Global Warming".

    History *will not* be kind to these clowns.
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  • Posted by Eudaimonia 11 years, 10 months ago
    Now I know why I can't find a job in my field.
    I was starting to get really depressed.
    Now, I'm just angry.
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  • Posted by Abaco 11 years, 10 months ago in reply to this comment.
    The recession officially ended June of 2009. Recession is two straight quarters of negative GDP. That ended spring of 2009. No...what we now have is the new norm - a weak, vulnerable economy. After this quarter it may be in a recession again.
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  • Posted by Technocracy 11 years, 10 months ago
    The economy has never actually left recession as far as I am concerned. Not one quarter since 2008 has shown growth beyond the follow on "margin of adjustment" that inevitably retracted the initially reported numbers.

    Why anyone would believe them when they say we are out of a recession when they are continually changing the reporting models and still readjusting numbers is beyond my comprehension.
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  • Posted by j_IR1776wg 11 years, 10 months ago
    When I was a little boy, the Soviet Union would announce 5-year economic plans. They always failed to meet their goals and always had an excuse. Weather was the leading one followed closely by bandits and hooligans. Obviously Socialism could not be blamed since it is the perfect political/economic system:-)
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  • Posted by $ jbrenner 11 years, 10 months ago
    What economic numbers shall we make up today? - BHO
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