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  • Posted by Technocracy 12 years ago
    The economy has never actually left recession as far as I am concerned. Not one quarter since 2008 has shown growth beyond the follow on "margin of adjustment" that inevitably retracted the initially reported numbers.

    Why anyone would believe them when they say we are out of a recession when they are continually changing the reporting models and still readjusting numbers is beyond my comprehension.
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  • Posted by CircuitGuy 12 years ago
    ZeroHedge contributes here. I'm glad to see him mentioned in a major commentary outlet. Maybe that happens all the time, but it's never happened to me; so I find it cool.

    Regarding the content, if we dismiss the effects of winter, what unusual thing happened caused the drop? That's a hard question to answer b/c any answer can be seen as a post hoc anomaly hunting, even if you're right.

    I don't see anything unusual (compared to the previous two years happening). I think it's weather and other random processes. We have a tendency to look for meaning in random patterns.

    I have seen first-hand strictly anecdotal evidence that the weather impacted the economy. My wife's practice was slow Q1 and got a deluge of work right around the thaw. That's one data point, and her clients are older than the population; so we can't draw any conclusions from this.

    I believe this is noise.
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