That's a long pull. The original estimate was for a 2.6% growth in GDP. A lot of economists should lose credibility but we seldom hold them accountable. Obamanomics is a failure.
ZeroHedge contributes here. I'm glad to see him mentioned in a major commentary outlet. Maybe that happens all the time, but it's never happened to me; so I find it cool.
Regarding the content, if we dismiss the effects of winter, what unusual thing happened caused the drop? That's a hard question to answer b/c any answer can be seen as a post hoc anomaly hunting, even if you're right.
I don't see anything unusual (compared to the previous two years happening). I think it's weather and other random processes. We have a tendency to look for meaning in random patterns.
I have seen first-hand strictly anecdotal evidence that the weather impacted the economy. My wife's practice was slow Q1 and got a deluge of work right around the thaw. That's one data point, and her clients are older than the population; so we can't draw any conclusions from this.
They were hired for Obamacare. Good little moocher here, you get your healthcare. Bad, bad little objectivist, we'll put you on the other (death panels, Sarah Palin?) list.
The recession officially ended June of 2009. Recession is two straight quarters of negative GDP. That ended spring of 2009. No...what we now have is the new norm - a weak, vulnerable economy. After this quarter it may be in a recession again.
The economy has never actually left recession as far as I am concerned. Not one quarter since 2008 has shown growth beyond the follow on "margin of adjustment" that inevitably retracted the initially reported numbers.
Why anyone would believe them when they say we are out of a recession when they are continually changing the reporting models and still readjusting numbers is beyond my comprehension.
When I was a little boy, the Soviet Union would announce 5-year economic plans. They always failed to meet their goals and always had an excuse. Weather was the leading one followed closely by bandits and hooligans. Obviously Socialism could not be blamed since it is the perfect political/economic system:-)
Regarding the content, if we dismiss the effects of winter, what unusual thing happened caused the drop? That's a hard question to answer b/c any answer can be seen as a post hoc anomaly hunting, even if you're right.
I don't see anything unusual (compared to the previous two years happening). I think it's weather and other random processes. We have a tendency to look for meaning in random patterns.
I have seen first-hand strictly anecdotal evidence that the weather impacted the economy. My wife's practice was slow Q1 and got a deluge of work right around the thaw. That's one data point, and her clients are older than the population; so we can't draw any conclusions from this.
I believe this is noise.
Easy to believe that of voters based on the POTUS of the past 7 elections.
History *will not* be kind to these clowns.
I was starting to get really depressed.
Now, I'm just angry.
Why anyone would believe them when they say we are out of a recession when they are continually changing the reporting models and still readjusting numbers is beyond my comprehension.
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