Why the idea that the world is in terminal decline is so dangerous
This is a left wing view. Aeon has some interesting articles, but many are mainstream progressive. In this same issue is a rant about Western philosophy being racist for ignoring China and India. Aside from that, This article is worthwhile because it offers a left wing perspective on something we know all-too-well here: the sky is falling.
"From all sides, the message is coming in: the world as we know it is on the verge of something really bad. From the Right, we hear that ‘West’ and ‘Judeo-Christian Civilisation’ are in the pincers of foreign infidels and native, hooded extremists. Left-wing declinism buzzes about coups, surveillance regimes, and the inevitable – if elusive – collapse of capitalism.
[...]
"Rome’s decline looms large as the precedent. So, world historians have played their part as doomsayers. At the same time as the English historian Edward Gibbon’s first volume of The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire (1776) was published, the American colonists said good-bye to their overlords; some read that as an omen.
[...]
" Declinisms share some traits. They have more purchase in times of turmoil and uncertainty. They are also prone to thinking that the circles of hell can be avoided only with a great catharsis or a great charismatic figure.
But most of all: they ignore signs of improvement that point to less drastic ways out of trouble. Declinists have a big blindspot because they are attracted to daring, total, all-encompassing alternatives to the humdrum greyness of modest solutions. Why go for partial and piecemeal when you can overturn the whole system?
Declinists claim to see the big picture. Their portraits are grandiose, subsuming, total."
[...]
"The problem with declinism is that it confirms the virtues of our highest, impossible solutions to fundamental problems. It also confirms the disappointments we harbour in the changes we have actually made. This is not to say there aren’t deep-seated problems. But seeing them as evidence of ineluctable demise can impoverish our imaginations by luring us to the sirens of either total change or fatalism."
Fill in the details here:
https://aeon.co/ideas/why-the-idea-th...
"From all sides, the message is coming in: the world as we know it is on the verge of something really bad. From the Right, we hear that ‘West’ and ‘Judeo-Christian Civilisation’ are in the pincers of foreign infidels and native, hooded extremists. Left-wing declinism buzzes about coups, surveillance regimes, and the inevitable – if elusive – collapse of capitalism.
[...]
"Rome’s decline looms large as the precedent. So, world historians have played their part as doomsayers. At the same time as the English historian Edward Gibbon’s first volume of The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire (1776) was published, the American colonists said good-bye to their overlords; some read that as an omen.
[...]
" Declinisms share some traits. They have more purchase in times of turmoil and uncertainty. They are also prone to thinking that the circles of hell can be avoided only with a great catharsis or a great charismatic figure.
But most of all: they ignore signs of improvement that point to less drastic ways out of trouble. Declinists have a big blindspot because they are attracted to daring, total, all-encompassing alternatives to the humdrum greyness of modest solutions. Why go for partial and piecemeal when you can overturn the whole system?
Declinists claim to see the big picture. Their portraits are grandiose, subsuming, total."
[...]
"The problem with declinism is that it confirms the virtues of our highest, impossible solutions to fundamental problems. It also confirms the disappointments we harbour in the changes we have actually made. This is not to say there aren’t deep-seated problems. But seeing them as evidence of ineluctable demise can impoverish our imaginations by luring us to the sirens of either total change or fatalism."
Fill in the details here:
https://aeon.co/ideas/why-the-idea-th...
I have been reading historical biographies lately based on a genealogical information website a neighbor started me looking at. It seems that there are some interesting characters in my tree and for fun, I have been reading about them. This follows reading binges on the founding fathers and many of the more interesting US Presidents (none of them in the tree). What is absolutely striking is the similarity of civilizations throughout the ages. The politics and disagreements on philosophy and religion keeps going on and on. No one has heeded any lesson from history and it keeps repeating. I asked myself "How can that be?" and the best answer I can come up with is that they were people, we are people and that is what people do. Therefore, I am neither worried nor optimistic about the future because in every meaningful way, I am convinced, it will be essentially the same.
I have been re-reading The Lessons of History by Will and Ariel Durant, the copy I bought in 1968, and they confirm "the similarity" that coaldigger notes. All we are experiencing is the same thing with modern (tech, communication, etc,) factors in the mix. For me, it's interesting but not reason to worry. We been here before.
Freedom is important, but we were politically "free" for a million years and four successive kinds of humans used the same hand-axe for 100,000 years. Once we had ideas and words to express them, then freedom to act on those ideas paid huge rewards. In Sumer it was the idea of "large" numbers such as 5 and words to express them and the ability to record them in writing.
For the Greeks, writing led to introspection and expanded discoveries about the external world. The Renaissance and printing, the Age of Reason and steam, the Enlightenment and electricity...
But all along, even in the so-called "Dark Ages" things tended to improve if only slowly. Just for one case in point, medieval astronomers of about 900 AD had a better grasp of the order of the heavens and the motions of the Earth than did the Romans. In the "Dark Ages" antimony was separated as an elemental metal and soap was invented. you would not want to give up your life now to live back then. And given a time machine, you might choose Ancient Greece for cultural reasons. But the Court of Marie of Champagne in the shadow of Eleanor of Aragon c. 1100 was vibrant in its own right.
France had a network of people with semaphore flags on hilltops that could transfer information faster than horseback. Electricity moves at about 2/3 the speed of light, depending on the velocity factor of the transmission line. Speed of light is 5 us per mile, 85 ps per inch. 150 years after those semaphore flag network was retired, I use those speed of light numbers on a daily basis. "What hath God wrought"
(And for the record, I live on the Wind River Reservation and I know of no Indian that prefers "Native American" as a designation)
That being said, we can generalize about trends and evaluate whether the principles underlying the trends contribute to more or less freedom. Is the sky falling? To answer that question one must first define what sky is wanted. There is very little question in my mind that the trend in the United States over the past 50 years has been towards socialism and away from true liberalism - that being the liberalism of Thomas Jefferson and the Founding Fathers rather than the co-opted version appropriated by Woodrow Wilson. To a freedom-loving person like me, the blue sky and open spaces which is a product of individual liberty is very much endangered by the policies espoused by the political left. In that respect, the sky is falling (and its crash would have been hastened by another progressive Presidency). If you are a leftist, you want that sky to fall so as to usher in the communist utopia you envision. What most wishing for the falling sky do not realize is that they are effectively evicting the mythical Atlas and they will soon find that their shoulders bear the weight of the oppression that is the reality of leftism.
The one thing I can say either way about those who are self-reliant, is that they are taking the approach of making sure their own perceived needs are met through their own means. That's far better than the leftist mindset of government-sponsored theft (a.k.a. welfare) and entitlement. Regardless whether the end of the world comes or not, which mindset is going to support the principles of liberty?
I recommend Against the Gods by Peter L. Bernstein. Reviewed here http://necessaryfacts.blogspot.com/20...
See for example here: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases...
(Again, despite the hand-wringing...)
Moreover, libraries are more important than schools. In a recent interview Judge Clarence Thomas spoke of reading Ayn Rand in the public library as a youngster in the South. Racism and oppression were defeated by the truth.
Books by and about Ayn Rand have sold perhaps about 50 million copies. It is one of the factors that continues to hold promise for the future.
Liberals have become a religion! Change has become their enemy!
Are we experiencing the "decline" of modern societies around the world? Absolutely, but not for the reasons mentioned! let's take the Roman empire model first.
Yes, the actual beginning of Rome's decline can be identified definitively as the beginning of the reign of Julius Caesar (albeit the events that took place a number of years before that set the stage). The Republic succumbed to the rule of the masses (democracy left to its own devices will do that). The Senate became so concerned about the citizenry and the rule of the masses that the government opened the grain stores and the games became the hallmark of Rome's focus, that being on a more "universal" form of hedonism.
Cicero recognized that the Republic was in danger whereas he even cast his lot with Pompey in hopes that would save the Republic from Caesar's designs. That was not to be, the Rubicon was crossed and Pompey and his armies defeated. It was at this point that Caesar ascended to becoming tyrant and the Republic died. We are now at a point whereas the Presidency has become a cult figurehead (first Obama and now Trump). We are tacitly supporting the President seizing of power and ruling over an increasingly "unresponsive" Congress and an already corrupt Judiciary! Yes, the Republic is dying if not already dead. Tyranny once our venerable Constitution rendered invalid. This is the next phase. Rome redux!
As for the influx of "foreign" infidels yes, that is happening. The question that is not readily apparent is "why?"...There is a philosophy that in order to fix something you first have to break it. this appears to be the grand strategy! Fear and death will deliver the coup de grâce! The start of this approach (thanks to George HW Bush) was the "partial" invasion of Iraq. Partial? Because there was never a plan on taking out Hussein by Bush (or the international elite). We needed a "boogieman" to fear and to keep us in a constant state of fear and agitation. Hussein filled that need nicely.
This veiled approach also set the stage for the next phase (thanks to Clinton and finally GW Bush). Bin Laden was in Clinton's grasp (if he wanted him) however Bin Laden (like Hussein) was needed by the international elite and the Military Industrial Complex in order to further us along the "desired" path to rule by the UN (and their rulers).
With the toppling of Hussein and the collapse of stability he represented, the next phase was well underway that being the destabilization of Western Europe, the former Soviet Republics, North Africa, and all of Southwestern Asia. Obama was the man for this phase and he did it with gusto! Fomenting such destabilizing effects ratchets up the need for more military involvement and greater participation of the UN and other "Super" national entities. We now have the debate raging about Islamic Terrorists coming into the country without being vetted! How appropriate and what a way to sow more fear. Perhaps with enough fear, Americans will again trade Freedom for supposed (albeit fake) security. Remember the Patriot Act? Throw into the fray, heightened globalization through control by the central banks, the IMF, the World Bank and the Import/Export Bank and via treaties negotiated by the UN et al and there you have the stage nicely set. Total control by a world government and the death of America as we have known it. Any questions?
Fear, never-ending war, creation of national emergencies (NK, Cuba, Syria and Iran) - Interestingly, these four countries are the only one's without a Central Bank - I wonder what that means in the scheme of things?
Yes, the world is in rapid decline however not for the reasons stated above. In my humble opinion!
Like the death of Mark Twain, the end of the world has been greatly exaggerated -- often.
The easy allusion to Rome is fallacious on several grounds. Granted, it is a fact, apparently, that like people and trees, cultures rise, flourish, age, and fall. But I have more of my own teeth than everyone in my family combined who was my age now when I was 10. I just finished 20 push-ups and 33 sit-ups to start my day. Again, impossible to anyone my age now in the world I knew growing up. I have had heart surgery and the removal of a malignancy rather than dying of either of those, which I would have 100 years ago.
I also read your State of Fear by Michael Crichton. I get it. But we have always had world-beaters seizing the wealth of others for their grandiose plans -- and that in glory in republican Roman which looted Greece -- and diminished Rhodes as a center of learning in order to establish Delos as a center of the slave trade, before Julius Caesar. The Caesars, the Medici, the Habsburgs, the Rockefellers, there's never a shortage, but the deeper and more abiding engines of creation are found in the freedom to discover and act on those discoveries. The very fact that State of Fear was published and sold - and more to the point, Atlas Shrugged - speaks to why such dire predictions will not come true.
As for my allusion to Rome being fallacious, I strongly disagree! I suggest that you read Cicero and you will see that Rome's decline was marked by that time frame and yes, Greece fell as did other civilizations however there is a marked difference between then and now! The world is getting hot (not environmentally but rather with the proliferation of nuclear weapons, etc. Technology advances without discernible cultural maturing is a very dangerous combination!
If one were to look with an open mind, the trajectory we are on (not only us) provides ample tinder for the winds of dangerous change and ultimately, decline of civilization. Atlas Shrugged only reinforces the belief that before you can build that "new" society, there must always be the destruction of the old! This goes for our culture as well. When you have more people avoiding paying Federal Income Taxes that do, you are already in a state of decline. It is a decline of the spirit and that leads to the decline of the rest of the organism.
As you mentioned, cultures (like any living entity) rise, flourish, age and perish! Why you would not see that happening here and now escapes me. Rose colored glasses don't alter reality, just the perception of it.
As for "World Beaters" seizing the wealth of others, we are witnessing this event in this country (assuming you are from the US) everyday we see the "mindless" redistribution of wealth which is no different that the distribution of grain to the masses in ancient Rome at the time of Cicero and Caesar. Stealing wealth can be done by individuals or by the masses (something for nothing - buys votes doesn't it?). Wouldn't you agree that Congress (house and senate) produce way too much legislation that gives things away to various constituencies, be it "corporate" welfare (Crony Capitalism - GE, Lockmart, etc.) as well as Obama Phones and incredible wefare benefits and unfunded entitlements to the masses. How long do you think that is going to be sustainable?
Let me throw this out for consideration! Common Core, is it for the betterment of the common man or, is it for the betterment of an oligarchical elite such as Bill Gates (Common Core's biggest supporter)? "Group Think" is just another stab at creating a 2 class hive (just like the Soviet Union experiment). Also, keeping in mind, Bill gates sells software and that in turn sells computers and networking therefore creating another multi billion dollar industry for him to exploit. He built Common Core and soon will be the primary beneficiary of it. Tell me he and his liberal friends in Silicon Valley aren't the prime beneficiaries.
As for Atlas Shrugged, it is prescient in speaking why such decline as envisioned by Ayn Rand can come. Denying that fact or missing the point amounts in essence to being little more than whistling past the graveyard. The masses being the herd type animal we are will, just like lemmings march right off the cliff or perhaps a better way of putting it, "like the proverbial lobster placed in a pot of cold water and having the heat slowly turned up, will only realize its own demise when it is too late!" Either allusion I firmly and without doubt believe, lemming or lobster, take your pick!
Young people are methodically trained in socialist doctrine and in the inevitable immediate collapse of Western Civilization. This is reinforced by movies and books. When these world views are noted by the press, it is as if they had sprung up of their own accord (news article today on Millennials overturning capitalism). Depression is on the rise in Millennials...what a surprise.
Jan
In one saga, a man strikes his newlywed bride the day after they are married. She says, "Someday, you will regret that." Years pass and he is now very in love with her, and she with him. Enemies attack their home; he is an excellent bowman and can keep them all at bay. His bowstring breaks. He turns to his beloved wife and asks her for some strands of her beautiful knee-length hair to use as a bowstring. She says, "No. You struck me. I will not give you my hair." (In this culture, pride is more important than love.) He will not lower himself to take her hair by force, and he fights with a sword until his enemies kill him. Moral: Don't beat your wife.
I study the sagas for the info they contain, but I avoid reading them as stories...because they are almost all mega-downers. I accept, philosophically, that stories about the bad times that other people have can lead to empathy that crosses lines of class and race and religion. I accept that these stories are good things to have for this reason.
I do not accept that our culture should magnify and glorify the negative side of our present civilization in order to make us feel as if we were subject to a modern version of 'Original Sin'. We are not born guilty of inherited blame for slavery and prejudice and genocide just because we now live in a flourishing high tech culture. This is what the negative media is trying to push on us psychologically, and I reject that meme.
Jan
1. Fight the decline - If you say things are pretty good, you're an apologist of all the evil things in the world, e.g. violent crime, intrusive gov't, corruption.
2. Welcome the Flood - We have become decadent, and a great flood is coming that will leave only the righteous.
In the more extreme form of #2, people don't want to bother with problems because they hasten the great flood, which hastens the coming of the righteous world that follows the flood. I strongly disagree with this because I don't think liberty is the default state for humankind. The declinist will say to this that even if we don't get utopia after the flood, there's no way things could be worse than they are today. I don't know what world they're living in. I actually wonder if they have clinical depression or something, since the world appears to be safer, freer, and more prosperous, than in all of human history.
An example of #2 are Naomi Klein saying she used to fear climate change, but not she sees the bright side that its effects will justify socialism. (I think climate change and socialism are two major threats to human prosperity, so I can't stand this view.) Another example is people opposed to fractional reserve banking. They look forward to a collapse of the monetary system, which they don't think will play out as in Germany.
The phrase in the article "the party's over" reminded me of 2005 book "The Party's Over" that says modern civilization will come to an end when there is no more cheap oil. I think oil will stay cheap within an order of magnitude because other things will replace it and there won't be much reason to extract it from difficult-to-reach places.
"Rome’s decline looms large" - It does for me too. I see my US society as Rome. I feel it more when I travel. We have this vast empire of bases. People count on us to provide security and to respond whenever there's a military crisis anywhere in the world. Sometimes it seems like more people at home view success as a birthright rather than something to be worked for. So I feel like we're Rome. I think we should get off this path, but I don't feel like the path leads to a climatic collapse.
"In fact, we are all, as a species, in this mess; our world supply chains and climate change have ensured that we are poised before a sixth mass extinction together." - I don't minimize these problems, but they do not make me feel any fatalism or declinism. The current mass-extinction event started before widespread agriculture. We're not sure of the cause of it.
Organizations working on any problem, e.g. fighting crime, reducing spouse abuse, protecting the environment, don't like to say, "We've mostly solved this problem by standards of 100 years ago, but still contribute so we can make little incremental improvements making things even better." It seems like they have say the problem is about to kill everyone. And further, they seem to need to have a group of evil people to blame it the problem. To people with a hardcore declinist view, anything other than seeing doom is actually supporting the problems of the world.
I'm baffled by people who see problems as so bad that society is bound to collapse soon. I'm living in a prosperous part of the world in a prosperous time. More and more people are living in it. There used to be poor "third-world" countries not allied with USA or USSR. That's all gone. Being born in a particular country no long means your rich or poor. The wealth comes from technology, so people have an incentive to learn an abandon old superstitions. Communism threatened to destroy life on earth when I was a kid, and now it's a joke. I know it's bad to laugh about it or put communist figures on hip tee-shirts, but it's actually good that's not an immediate threat anymore. I don't understand the world declinists live in.
"To people with a hardcore declinist view, anything other than seeing doom is actually supporting the problems of the world." equals "If you are not part of the solution, then you are part of the problem." Questioning the solution or the definition of (or existence of) a problem is not an option.
That's a scary thought. You can measure it in how emerging markets have become more correlated to the S&P500. A crisis related to unsustainable gov't could ripple through the world with unpredictable consequences.
Eventually, things would even out, although I suspect at a much lower level of economic activity. Things like off-road jaunts just wouldn't be one of the choices people would be able to make financially for a long time.
So, our company is substantially dependent on china doing well, and china is very substantially dependent on the USA consumer doing well. It is a scary thought. Makes me want to revert to our internal manufacturing model that we had in the past, BUT our customers are expecting the prices that are possible only with cheap chinese labor, and will stop buying from us at the prices needed to support in house production.
I think this is a natural development. The wealth in question comes from trade. The extreme case of everyone making everything for himself is pure poverty. Wealth comes from specialization and trade, which makes people dependent on one another. I agree, though, it's scary given how the Chinese gov't doesn't respect its citizens' rights.