No Shortage of Skilled Labor?
This came up as a "Shortage of Viable Jobs" posted by jstork, to which DrZarkov replied that there is a shortage of skilled workers. I responded to the "Shortage of Jobs" thread. Here is my response to the "Shortage of Workers" claim. I note, of course, that this is a meme from within Atlas Shrugged that as the economy spun down, and regulations spun up, workers hid their talent, taking the lowest jobs rather than seeking more responsibility - for which there would be only punishments, never rewards. "But," said Aragorn, "that is not this day,"
Machinists make about $19 per hour on average. In high demand industries, such as oil and gas, and within the government, they make twice that on average. See here for pages of graphs and charts:
https://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes51...
If there were a shortage, wages would rise to attract more workers. Government employees would be leaving for work in booming industries. Certainly, workers in South Carolina would be migrating to Michigan, if there were a shortage. In fact, the differential is just a few dimes more in the north.
See also
Indeed https://www.indeed.com/salaries/Manua...
The Houston Chronicle: http://work.chron.com/average-pay-jou...
Payscale Dot Com http://www.payscale.com/research/US/J...
Also from Indeed, slightly lower wages for "Manual Machinists"
https://www.indeed.com/salaries/Manua...
The average wage for machinists ($19 and change) is just less than the very flat median wage of $20 http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/...
There is apparently no shortage of machinists, but, perhaps a slight abundance of them.
I will post other wage and salary surveys later.
Best regards,
Mike M.
Machinists make about $19 per hour on average. In high demand industries, such as oil and gas, and within the government, they make twice that on average. See here for pages of graphs and charts:
https://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes51...
If there were a shortage, wages would rise to attract more workers. Government employees would be leaving for work in booming industries. Certainly, workers in South Carolina would be migrating to Michigan, if there were a shortage. In fact, the differential is just a few dimes more in the north.
See also
Indeed https://www.indeed.com/salaries/Manua...
The Houston Chronicle: http://work.chron.com/average-pay-jou...
Payscale Dot Com http://www.payscale.com/research/US/J...
Also from Indeed, slightly lower wages for "Manual Machinists"
https://www.indeed.com/salaries/Manua...
The average wage for machinists ($19 and change) is just less than the very flat median wage of $20 http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/...
There is apparently no shortage of machinists, but, perhaps a slight abundance of them.
I will post other wage and salary surveys later.
Best regards,
Mike M.
(Myself, I like a city with a good bus system.)
The safety net of today, with unemployment monies and Medicaid, e.g., makes uprooting the family to chase jobs less necessary than in my father's day. I attended 13 different schools before graduating from high school as we moved for my very skilled father to find the best wages. That is far less likely to happen today.
There's also the company profitability to consider. As with the demand for $15/hour minimum wage, pushing wages too high cuts into the bottom line, resulting in a reduced number of affordable positions.
I've led advanced technology projects using lots of CAD/CAM manufacturing, and the sad fact is that sometimes the computer makes it possible for the engineer to create a design that can't be machined. There are also complex parts that can be a challenge to a CAD system, like the exhaust tubing for a radial engine. The real breakthrough technology that may well someday eliminate most machining tech jobs is 3D printing. This new field is rapidly moving beyond the simple plastic materials it started from into metals, and is refining production from basic molded quality to polished machined quality.
Sometimes there's a field with both practical robotic and manual skills needed. Welding is just such a job market, where the artistry sometimes required is too difficult for a robot (so far, anyway).
The skilled jobs picture is complex and diverse, and not easy to sort out by looking at average wages. I do talk to companies that have difficulty finding really skilled employees in the craftsman level.
https://up.jobs/careers/railroad/elec...
Note that they pay about $19 per hour, the same as the machinists in the opening post here, and a shade less than the average wage in America.
However, it seems that there are also some shifts in the markets for ETs because of changes in technologies. They are not as in demand as they once were.
See here:
http://www.electronicdesign.com/board...
"Three major developments over the years have probably contributed to the dearth of techs. First, economics. Get rid of the techs to save money and make the engineer do the work. Second, semiconductor technology. With more circuitry inside ICs, there is less need to design specific circuits so there is much less need to breadboard and test them. Third, we got computer aided design. The engineer does not need as much bench work as before since most circuits are simulated first.
"And, there are more reference designs .... While prototypes are still built, engineers often build the prototypes themselves and carry out the testing ... Things are so much more complex today than before, the engineer has to do the prototyping and testing since the tech may not be as knowledgeable or capable. Another factor may be that so much of design today is software for the embedded processors inside everything. This requires engineers or techs who can code and do their own debugging."
Range of wages from Glassdoor
https://www.glassdoor.com/Salaries/el...
Show higher demand (higher wages) at Northrup Grumman, Lockheed Martin, AT&T, and the US Postal Service. But no one is offering $40 per hour.
I have a client with a strong need for one.
"Economics - have the EEs do the work"
This is ignoring economics. Techs are cheaper and much much better and faster at doing rework than an EE b/c the tech does it all day. So with an EE doing it, you spend more and get lower efficiency. Just look at a typical EE solder job, and I'm not counting EEs who can barely handle an iron or distinguish solder from bus wire.
"semiconductor technology. With more circuitry inside ICs, there is less need to design specific circuits"
Yes, the amount you can do per IC has increased. But there are still parts the need reworking on boards. When they do, they're often BGAs or fine-pitch, requiring a good bit of skill. I generally agree, though, a shop that's turning out a certain number of boards a month needs fewer techs. It also requires fewer PCB designers and fewer EEs. This is part of general increased productivity due to automation.
"The engineer does not need as much bench work as before since most circuits are simulated first"
It depends on what you call bench work and what kind of designs. A lot of the work has changed from value changes and cuts-and-jumpers to software/firmware debug.
There's a constant cycle of commoditization/decommoditization. Someone invents something new, and there's a high margin; i.e. non-commoditized/non-modular. Eventually the technology matures, and it becomes a high-volume low-margin commodity; a module that you cannot differentiate from other modules to justify a high price.That commodity gets used as building blocks for a new non-commoditized product.
All of this means I see no limit to the number of jobs. People invent tools, like the article's example of efficient PCB layout or simulation tools, and the only limit is the ways people can think up to use them to meet people's desires and needs.
Today I read that Dick's sporting goods stores is offering to beat the prices of the same products sold by other stores such as walmart and online stores such as amazon; WHY? ; because they are losing sales to these and other establishments very quickly and it is happening in a down economy to boot. This organization is going into the deep muddy and it is being led by the wall street types. they keep opening more and more stores which means more inventory and more wages and more overhead.
The country is not only being run into the ground by the Washington crowd but also by the corporate elites. glad I am not 40 or 50.
The master's is the new bachelor's.
Don't disparage, though, we are all ever-more educated for the better. American adults tend to know more science than other adults in other industrialized nations. And there is the Flynn Effect of the average IQ rising, granted specifically that IQ tests just measure your ability to take tests. That is what our live is all about in a complex, informatic society.
Be grateful. Tomorrow will be even better.
And, when it comes to the high tech jobs, the kids do have a point. Like mathematics and physics, software belongs to the young.
That said, TJ Rodgers of Cypress Semiconductor stands out for having earned his doctorate developing the technology that he worked in. Even so, as above, he started out working for someone else.