9 Artificial Intelligence Stats That Will Blow You Away

Posted by mminnick 7 years, 4 months ago to Science
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The article makes you think. I especially like #9 it is dead on correct.
SOURCE URL: http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2016/12/10/artificial-intelligence-stats-that-will-blow-away.html


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  • Posted by $ blarman 7 years, 4 months ago
    So I've worked in IT for twenty years, and these claims are vastly over-hyped. Here's my critique:

    #1. Note the qualifier AI app. Duh. When you limit your popularity to a very specific group of applications and then include ALL the major apps in that group? This one is a totally useless headline if you look at it carefully.

    #2. Ever heard of the Turing Test? Yeah. The claim that AI is going to power 85% of customer interactions is nonsense. Sure, there's 25% of simple requests that an AI can handle, but a lot of times customer service interactions are all about getting the customer to realize what their real request IS in the first place - not merely running through a list of canned fixes. The other problem is in getting your customers to USE the AI in the first place. No one wants to talk to an automated attendant. Cart before horse, anyone?

    #3. This one may be possible if you live in a few select regions with clear speech patterns. They haven't yet built a version of Siri et al which can handle either a Southern Drawl or the New England slur.

    #4. Yes, it takes a huge investment to field a decent AI so it makes sense that this will be a limited field, but the article left out two major players: Apple (with Siri) and Google. Oops.

    #5. This one is the first one on the list that has a decent chance. The estimates on traffic accidents avoided are interesting, but hardly proven. And there is still the legal liability question to be resolved in the case of a real accident. The other thing no one ever brings up in the self-driving car debate, however, is that those systems can be hacked or taken over by law enforcement...

    #6. Pure BS for the timeframe they are talking about. Maybe in ten years, but in two? No way.

    #7. Pure speculation. The numbers being cited here are the size of the entire US economy, and economies are driven by the needs of people - not machines. I can see modest improvements in a variety of markets, but the size of change being cited here would be like Bob Uecker hitting a 1000-ft home run.

    #8. Define intelligence. Computers specialize in being able to make certain comparisons faster than human beings. There's no question about that. And given today's voting populace, I don't know that this is all that grand in the first place. But first they have to build a computer that passes the Turing Test - and so far no one has done it.

    #9. Of all the predictions in this article, this one should have been #1. It's a simple fact that no one knows what the future is going to hold.

    All in all, #9 really isn't a prediction, but only one of the remaining eight to me is reasonable as cited.
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  • Posted by ewv 7 years, 4 months ago
    This from the clowns who are pushing as "intelligent" the corporate telephone answering systems installed as barricades cutting off accountability of any human being to customers.

    Voice recognition has been working commercially for over 30 years. What they do to properly interpret it and respond to it is supposed to be the artificial intelligence, but all we get beyond menu mazes following a simple tree structure determined in advance is a lot of wasted time and frustration trying to get to the point of the call while being insulted with pre-recorded fragments in simulations of human conversation pretending to be "natural" human intelligence -- serving as a distraction from how bad the whole thing is. Some of the menu mazes are even worse, going in endless loops as you try to find something usefully relevant, with the "intelligent" system never recognizing that it is failing, but succeeding fully in its intended goal of preventing you from talking to a responsible human being.

    When this mentality is applied to self-driving cars no one will get anywhere unless leaving the system on horseback.
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  • Posted by Herb7734 7 years, 4 months ago
    No one to date knows what consciousness is. Do not confuse it with artificial intelligence. However, at what point does AI reach a singularity and cross over and become conscious? This is going to get out of hand within this century. Get out the Ouija Board and let me know.
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    • Posted by ewv 7 years, 4 months ago
      Everyone knows what consciousness is. It is our faculty of awareness. We don't know how it works biologically, but we do know that what is being peddled as AI isn't consciousnesses and is rarely intelligent.
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      • Posted by Dobrien 7 years, 4 months ago
        The first known scientific account relating consciousness to the brain dates back to Hippocrates in the fifth century b.c. At that time, there was no formal science as it is recognized today. Hippocrates was nonetheless an acute medical observer and noticed that people with brain damage tended to lose their mental abilities. He realized that mind is something created by the brain and that it dies piece by piece as the brain dies. A passage attributed to him summarizes his view elegantly:


        "Men ought to know that from the brain, and from the brain only, arise our pleasures, joys, laughter and jests, as well as our sorrows, pains, griefs and tears. Through it, in particular, we think, see, hear, and distinguish the ugly from the beautiful, the bad from the good, the pleasant from the unpleasant."

        The importance of Hippocrates’s insight that the brain is the source of the mind cannot be overstated. It launched two and a half thousand years of neuroscience. As a specific explanation of consciousness, however, one has to admit that the Hippocratic account is not very helpful. Rather than explain consciousness, the account merely points to a magician. The brain makes it happen. How the brain does it, and what exactly consciousness may be, Hippocrates left unaddressed. Such questions went beyond the scope of his medical observations.

        Two thousand years after Hippocrates, in 1641, Descartes proposed a second influential view of the brain basis of consciousness. In Descartes’s view, the mind was made out of an ethereal substance, a fluid, that was stored in a receptacle in the brain. He called the fluid rescogitans. Mental substance. When he dissected the brain looking for the receptacle of the soul, he noticed that almost every brain structure came in pairs, one on each side. In his view, the human soul was a single, unified entity, and therefore it could not possibly be divided up and stored in two places. In the end he found a small single lump at the center of the brain, the pineal body, and deduced that it must be the house of the soul. The pineal body is now known to be a gland that produces melatonin and has nothing whatsoever to do with a soul
        Descartes’ idea, though refreshingly clever for the time, and though influential in philosophy and theology, did not advance the scientific understanding of consciousness. Instead of proposing an explanation of consciousness, he attributed consciousness to a magic fluid. By what mechanism a fluid substance can cause the experience of consciousness, or where the fluid itself comes from, Descartes left unexplained— truly a case of pointing to a magician instead of explaining the trick.
        One of the foundation bricks of modern science, especially modern psychology, is a brilliant treatise so heft y that it is literally rather brick-like, Kant’s A Critique of Pure Reason, published in 1781. In Kant’s account, the mind relies on what he termed “a priori forms,” abilities and ideas within us that are present first before all explanations and from which everything else follows. On the subject of consciousness, therefore, Kant had a clear answer: there is no explaining the magic. It is simply supplied to us by divine act. Quite literally, the magician did it.
        Hippocrates, Descartes, and Kant represent only three particularly prominent accounts of the mind from the history of science. I could go on describing one famous account after the next and yet get no closer to insight. Even if we fast-forward to modern neuroscience and examine the many proposed theories of consciousness, almost all of them suffer from the same limitation. They are not truly explanatory theories. They point to a magician but do not explain the magic.

        One of the first, groundbreaking neurobiological theories of consciousness was proposed in 1990 by the scientists Francis Crick (the co-discoverer of the structure of DNA) and Christof Koch. They suggested that when the electrical signals in the brain oscillate they cause consciousness. The idea goes something like this: the brain is composed of neurons that pass information among each other. Information is more efficiently linked from one neuron to another, and more efficiently maintained over short periods of time, if the electrical signals of neurons oscillate in synchrony. Therefore, consciousness might be caused by the electrical activity of many neurons oscillating together.

        This theory has some plausibility. Maybe neuronal oscillations are a precondition for consciousness. But note that, once again, the hypothesis is not truly an explanation of consciousness. It identifies a magician. Like the Hippocratic account, “The brain does it” (which is probably true), or like Descartes’s account, “The magic fluid inside the brain does it” (which is probably false), this modern theory stipulates that “the oscillations in the brain do it.” We still don’t know how. Suppose that neuronal oscillations do actually enhance the reliability of information processing. That is impressive and on recent evidence apparently likely to be true. But by what logic does that enhanced information processing cause the inner experience? Why an inner feeling? Why should information in the brain—no matter how much its signal strength is boosted, improved, maintained, or integrated from brain site to brain site—become associated with any subjective experience at all? Why is it not just information without the add-on of awareness?

        For this type of reason, many thinkers are pessimistic about ever finding an explanation of consciousness. This is an excerpt from the new bookConsciousness and the Social Brain by Michael S. A. Graziano (Oxford University Press, 2015):
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      • Posted by Herb7734 7 years, 4 months ago
        How does sensory awareness become rational though. Or thought at all, for that matter. They know what the brain is doing, but how does that translate into consciousness?
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        • Posted by ewv 7 years, 4 months ago
          Sensory awareness does not 'become rational'. It is the basic form of direct awareness on which a more developed (human) brain is able to further integrate and differentiate the basic sensory material. Many species are conscious -- aware of reality, but in different forms (mostly primitive) and and much more limited than what humans are capable of through rational thought employing concepts.

          Human thinking has been located in the brain and nervous system, and there is some knowledge of the role of neurons and their location for different kinds of processing. But no one has a more comprehensive explanation of how that results in conscious awareness as such at the perceptual level, let alone in the rest of human thinking. But we do know directly that we are conscious and that it means awareness of external reality.
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          • Posted by Herb7734 7 years, 4 months ago
            I am not disputing a thing that you put forth. The trouble is that our paths don't cross. AI can do pretty much everything that humans can do except create. They cannot "dream up" a new concept or idea. That is an example of consciousness. To give an example, Einstein came up with the beginnings of the non Newtonian universe. It didn't come from prior facts but from what Dr. E. termed "thought experiments." Do you get my point or are we at cross purposes still?
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            • Posted by ewv 7 years, 4 months ago
              Consciousness is awareness of external reality, not creativity. Conceptual creativity reorganizing facts in new ways is a specific attribute of human consciousness in how we are aware at the conceptual level. Advanced abstract theories are forms of awareness based on perception but in ways that perception alone cannot do.

              AI is not awareness and therefore not consciousness. It consists on non-biological algorithms created by human beings. It cannot do "everything we do except create", but it can lead to new organizations, which are inferences it reaches.

              Einstein's theory did come from facts he knew, especially the facts in Maxwell's theory of electromagnetic waves and Newton's theory of gravity. Without that knowledge he could not have done his "thought experiments" exploring implications. He would have had nothing to think about. His creation was a conceptual reorganization.
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  • Posted by $ MikeMarotta 7 years, 4 months ago
    Well, it was something to think about for a few minutes, but only the first was a true statistic. The rest were all just blue sky. By 2050, 63% of Americans will have read Atlas Shrugged.
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    • Posted by $ CBJ 7 years, 4 months ago
      Considering today's education system and the average attention span, I doubt that 63% of Americans will even be capable of reading Atlas Shrugged. Unless it can be reduced to a text message or a tweet. :-)
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      • Posted by $ MikeMarotta 7 years, 4 months ago
        But consider the fact that this phony statistic was offered here in the Gulch as if it were actual content. MMinnick now disparages modern education, but MMinnick did not perceive the gross errors in the news article. So, is MMinnick an illiterate tweeter? Or is there a deeper and broader narrative that you (and the other MM) ignore? In other words: Things are not as bad you claim. If they were, even that pie-in-the-sky "news" would be impossible.

        Can Atlas Shrugged be reduced to a tweet? What is the essence of the story? "I swear by my life and my love of it never to live for the sake, of another man or ask another man to live for mine." (116 characters) In fewer chars: "I swear never to live for another or ask anyone to live for me."
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      • Posted by 7 years, 4 months ago
        I think you gentlemen are being way too optimistic. The average student today has the initiative and capacity to read
        "Atlas Shrugged" or "The Fountainhead" beaten out of them by their sophomore year. The students are not taught to think on their own, they are taught to follow the dictates of the teacher and of society, no matter how stupid they are.
        I talk with my grand children about this and how they should think for themselves. My daughters are both educated and know how to think for themselves and are working with their children to make sure they follow in the same path but it is difficult. My oldest has learned it, the younger ones are getting the hang of it, but it is difficult because most of their friends and acquaintances don't think for themselves but follow group think patterns.
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        • Posted by $ MikeMarotta 7 years, 4 months ago
          Perhaps we could say that you are too pessimistic. "Averages only apply to average people." Most people in most times and places are just average. So, if the average person does this or does not do that, what have you said? In other words: When was it ever different?

          Do you know the "Our Gang" (LIttle Rascals) comedies from the 1920s to 1940s? Which one of them was a physicist? Today, we have Big Bang Theory as the number one comedy on television. We have a cartoon on the fridge: "At Home with the Heisenbergs --- "I can't find my keys." ... "Perhaps you know too much about their momentum." A million people would get that joke -- and 90% of the readers here.

          Kids group. That is a sentence. Group is a verb. It is what most children in most times and places do as they discover and create themselves. When I was in high school, we had an Ayn Rand group of individualists. We sat together at lunch. (Go figure).

          Some other really smart guys formed their own little clique: World Peace Through Massive Retaliation (here: http://necessaryfacts.blogspot.com/20.... Do that today and the cops would be all over you.

          Until about 1960, the average IQ at Harvard was 100: it was just an inherited status to attend that school because your progenitors did. (Now someone will make a wisecrack about the IQ at Harvard today...)

          And nothing is "beaten out of" kids. In school today, we do not strike children. (Another wisecrack coming?) Whatever problems public schools have were within the system 100 years ago. Again, view a LIttle Racals and tell me about school in 1930. Yes, in some ways it was better, but mostly because we selected: not every child went to school. Most kids stopped at the 8th grade and went to work at 14. Maybe we should do that today, but we do not. So, whatever is "average" in high school cannot be compared to your parents' time.
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      • Posted by term2 7 years, 4 months ago
        It would need to be 1.2 pages long as opposed to 1200+. It wasnt even popular as a movie (although AS2 and AS3 werent up to the current movie standards
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  • Posted by dnr 7 years, 4 months ago
    As a person who wrote their Master Thesis in 1964 called "Computer Diagnosis of Congenital Heart Disease" and as a long time follower of Ray Kurzweil, I have absolutely no major fears about AI. Gates, Hawking, and others paint a dark picture about AI which I do not agree with. It does not match everything I know about the possibility of AI "taking over the world." Yes, AI could eliminate 60% or some large percentage of current jobs. The name of the game is productivity and it is no different than the moment a guy, in our ancient past, "hooked a stick to a horse and replaced five guys with sticks." Learn to take advantage of how AI can help us, increase productivity and thus the "wealth of nations." I have been around all of this for a very long time and we must learn how to embrace it.
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  • Posted by scojohnson 7 years, 4 months ago
    While its a sufficiently non-trivial challenge to build a self-driving car out of a 1500 lb Prius, I'm kind of hoping for a more relevant application. Would be nice if a future version of the GMC 2500HD Duramax could self-drive down the highway towing my 5th wheel so I could watch a movie or read a book on the way to the hunting spot. It seems like dealing with trailer sway, cross winds and weird vehicle dynamics, etc., is probably a very long ways off though.
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  • Posted by ProfChuck 7 years, 4 months ago
    Shades of Dune and the Butlerian Jihad. "Thou shalt not make a machine in the likeness of a human mind." AI may give us an insight into what is meant by "intelligence".
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