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Falling oil prices, the Iran deal, and Obama managing the decline of US

Posted by $ jbrenner 8 years, 3 months ago to Economics
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Do you remember when several of Obama's lackeys talked about managing the decline of the United States (and for that matter, Western civilization)?

Most of us remember what an odd deal the Obama administration made with the Iranians. Most people criticized the deal, but focused on the nuclear aspects. What most people didn't realize is that we also lifted economic sanctions on Iran, thereby increasing their GDP by 100-150 billion dollars per year. When is the lifting of those economic sanctions taking effect? TODAY. Is it any wonder that crude oil prices are going down precipitously?

What are the consequences of all this? A number of coal, shale-derived oil, shale-derived natural gas, biofuel, and solar energy companies (including those he propped up via cronyism) have either gone bankrupt or are about to do so, and the major oil companies have taken quite a hit. All of this is part of the management of the decline of the U.S.

Not coincidentally, a number of other countries are really taking a financial bath, too, as a result of Obama's meddling. Russia, Saudi Arabia, Libya, and a number of other Muslim countries are severely destabilized as a result of drastically lower oil prices. Some of these countries may actually be wanting to drive down oil prices to bankrupt competition, particularly from North Dakota. In 1982 plus or minus a year, the price of oil went from 50 dollars per barrel down to 8 to eliminate American competition, before coming back up gradually.

For those of you not personally involved with the energy business like I am, the net effect on you is lower energy costs, and therefore, significantly deflationary pressure overall. Many Gulchers, and most people in the U.S,. will like this outcome. But as for me, the Iran deal was consummated at MY expense!


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  • Posted by $ Thoritsu 8 years, 3 months ago
    I do not correlate the Iran deal with the lower oil costs directly, unless Saudi Arabia is doing it as a means to limit funds available to Iran.

    I DO NOT support the lifting of sanctions on Iran. They cannot be trusted, and this will not change their corrupt government. Therefore, the sanction should have stayed.

    Lower energy prices, unless controlled by government spending, are disruptive but good overall.
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  • Posted by Ben_C 8 years, 3 months ago
    Yes, New Orleans and Louisiana are hurting but Detroit and the auto industry benefit from lower gas prices as does the airline industry - so it is a trade off. A destabilized world fits right into Obama's agenda for a fundamental change. He needs a crisis to be able to step in and offer his "hope." Communism is alive and well.
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  • Posted by ProfChuck 8 years, 3 months ago
    Commodity based economics is wildly unpredictable. As technology reduces the cost of production new and untested opportunities arise and traditional markets suffer. This is part of how and why capitalism works. Those with significant investment in "status quo" have the choice of accommodating the new environment by taking advantage or by fighting, Luddite style, to resist or even block the change. It is possible to take advantage of even the most dramatic of changes but you must have imagination to do so.
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    • Posted by fosterj717 8 years, 3 months ago
      Rail unions are a great example of stifling change and technological breakthroughs! Anything that seems to be a threat to their almost 200 year old train grid, they will fight tooth and nail! I have seen their power up close and personal! Overcome roadblocks by unions such as theirs and you have a change of creating a game breaker in modern transportation! Won't happen, unions too strong so we are relegated to old fashioned and inefficient technology until the next great conflagration! For what its worth! (Go Taxi2000!)
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      • Posted by jetmec 8 years, 3 months ago
        In England the rail unions want change and modernisation, At the moment the engines etc are privately owned the tracks are owned by the government guess which one is dragging there feet!
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        • Posted by $ jdg 8 years, 3 months ago
          That arrangement is the result of stupid EU antitrust law that forced the railroads to divest their tracks. Hopefully their voters will vote to leave the EU next year before Greece and Spain drag the rest down with them, and that law will go away.
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        • Posted by fosterj717 8 years, 3 months ago
          You missed my point being that there are technologies already here that can be built for about $10M per passenger mile (as opposed to $150M per passenger mile) and that can provide individual service at the cost of a bus ride (not subsidized by the taxpayer) that are basically autonomous vehicles (known as Personal Rapid Transit or PRT). They need very little "human" interaction and are on demand. Even with "modernization" of the rail systems, massive subsidies will always be required as well as dealing with an "entrenched" and ineffective union system. As yourself, what would Ayn Rand have to say about this. Check out Skyweb Express (http://www.taxi2000.com/) and you will see what I mean...BTW, there would be no need for government ownership of any part of a system such as this! For what its worth.....
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  • Posted by Zenphamy 8 years, 3 months ago
    j; I can't help but point out some problems with your premises.

    Iraq's oil production and sales were decimated in 2003 and in the intervening years haven't come anywhere near pre-2003 production levels. Libya's production was killed off during the 'Arab Spring' as well as Algeria and for the last three years, Syria. I think the largest driver in the drop of oil has been the drastic reduction of China's demand along with all of the Fed's free money since 2008 that went into the 'fracking' race here in the States and into Wall St in general. You'll note that as the Fed began tapering off of QE, the price of oil started going down. Many of the companies now facing bankruptcy and/or restructuring were built on inflated asset leveraging with that free Fed money. In a way, it brings to mind the Iris bulb bubble and bust of the Dutch, though the money wasn't being managed to the same extent.

    The real problem we now face is the probable de-coupling of the dollar from oil and the drive towards the commodity basket currency to replace the petro-dollar of the last 60 or 70 years..The 150 billion return to Iran and the probable increase of their GDP is a rain drop in the barrel compared to what happens with China's continued return to the realities of economics and the IMF's breakup of the petro-dollar. In short, we're headed into a really steep drop off that we may never recover from.
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  • Posted by Herb7734 8 years, 3 months ago
    Any manipulation of the free market will be at your expense, jb. Aren't you used to it by now? Or does it still give you pain? It is said that you can get used to anything if it is done long enough or said often enough. Not to us. We are of the ilk whose work is our very life. Our accomplishment a reason to get out of bed every day. To know you are manipulated against your will turning your accomplishments into crap is a pain that will never get better. (Been there, had it done to me, but knowing you're not alone doesn't make it better).
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    • Posted by $ 8 years, 3 months ago
      I don't want to manipulate the market, but I suppose the initial sanctions were such a manipulation.

      Repetition of intentional market manipulation will never make me immune to its effects. It will always give me pain because it will always be an affront to my liberty. That being said, you are correct in saying that it is a pain that will never get better.
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  • Posted by fosterj717 8 years, 3 months ago
    Things with this administration are never as they seem. As the writer said, what is transpiring, while great for the consumer on the surface holds some very dangerous "unintended" consequences.

    First of all, the heating up of rhetoric between Saudi Arabia and Tehran creates a potential tinderbox. The lowering of the price of oil by the Saudis can be looked at as a way of deepening our commitment to defending Saudi oil in a region now very close to becoming (thanks to Obama and Kerry) a nuclear powder keg.

    Obama, by accident or design, is helping create this glut of cheap oil has totally devastated our own self-dependency at a time when our military as well is being gutted. Throw on top of this pile of kindling the fact that our reliance is again growing precipitously on foreign oil that we soon will be at the mercies of the tyrants and miscreants of the world.

    It seems this emerging situation is nothing short of being a dangerous Trojan horse, perhaps designed to help Obama (I.e., the Democrat Party)in the upcoming election and to hurt Americans who wish to preserve our independence, by relying on domestically produced energy.

    Obama and his henchmen openly stated on numerous occasions that he/they will manage our decline by "taking America down a notch" and this might be a great way to do it. I for one am going to try to find companies that will only sell domestically produced oil.
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  • Posted by wiggys 8 years, 3 months ago
    jbrenner,

    you obviously do not realize that EVERYBODY is significantly affected by all of this. regardless of how cheap gas gets if people do not have jobs they can't buy it anyway.we have no choice at this time but to observe how things play out over the next 12 months of 0 in office. the congress as we know will in fact do nothing to stop his meddling because they have given up their actual reason and purpose for being elected to the congress. the potential for the situation to get worse is looming. it just depends upon how successful the new office holder is at convincing the congress of what positive changes/steps should be taken to initiate the righting of the ship. but for that we would need a person of intelligence and as far as i can see those vying for the position have very limited intelligence so we are in my opinion screwed.
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    • Posted by $ 8 years, 3 months ago
      I know everyone is significantly affected by all of this. I'm just a little closer to it, as I have been on almost all sides of the energy sector (solar, hydrogen, biofuels, oil, natural gas, syngas).
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  • Posted by edweaver 8 years, 3 months ago
    Great info JB. This has been a topic of conversation in the media that I listen to. They seem to think this may not be a good thing since many of the countries that will be punished by this are very volatile. I would include the US as well. If our financial condition deteriorates farther, I think we will see much more unrest especially in large cities. There is talk that this could trigger another world war and history has a track record to prove that. Since you are somewhat of an insider in the oil market do you have more thoughts on where $20 oil could lead?
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    • Posted by $ 8 years, 3 months ago
      You are on the right track, edweaver. The real question is which country (countries?) has the nerve to temporarily lose money until its competition is bankrupt. I used to make money betting on gasoline prices going up from February to May every year. Iran's reentry into the oil market is enough of a step change that I am unsure of when to call a bottom on oil prices.
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    • Posted by term2 8 years, 3 months ago
      At least Trump wouldnt go to war unless there was booty or self defense to gain. Obama and Bush went to war when there was nothing to gain- just the destruction of our wealth.
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      • Posted by $ jdg 8 years, 3 months ago
        I wonder what investments he holds in war industries. If he has booty coming from them, he'll attack anybody.
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        • Posted by term2 8 years, 3 months ago
          Perhaps I am being foolish, but I just have the feeling that he has all the money he can ever spend, and is into politics for the glamor of it, and to actually do something good for us. I dont get that feeling from ANY of the other candidates, with the possible exception of Rand Paul.
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          • Posted by $ jdg 8 years, 3 months ago
            Glenn Beck points out that Trump and Sanders have very similar economic policies. http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2016/...
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            • Posted by term2 8 years, 3 months ago
              There is no shortage of people slamming the anti-establishment Trump. I am voting for him, regardless of what some idiot comedian
              's views are.

              Trump says his mind, and will tell us if the emperor has no clothes. No political correctness there at all. We need that for 4 years to clean out washington.

              As to what Trump can actually do, other than raise peoples' awareness of whats going on, is NOT a lot. He would hav to have congress in his pocket, which is unlikely. Cpngress will probably be divided along party lines, and if not- Congress is mostly socialist anyway.
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              • Posted by edweaver 8 years, 3 months ago
                Are you sure he won't become the emperor?

                I agree we need to remove political correctness but I'm not sure he will clean out DC. He sounds like he will run over anyone who gets in his way and the thing that concerns me the most is I have not once heard him say that he will fight to defend the Constitution. I believe the solution to most of our problems can be solved by someone the looks to the original intent of our Constitution and defends it as if their life depends on it.
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                • Posted by term2 8 years, 3 months ago
                  I think the founding fathers did very good in protecting us from England, but they ignored protecting the sanctity of private property. ( should have been. Life, liberty, and property... Instead of life, liberty, and pursuit of happiness) . Since then the government itself has stolen our wealth, and allowed for taking from some and giving to others. Trump can only try to slow this down by exposing what the establishment has done, but we are in the end times of socialism. The dollar is already destroyed by money printing, deficit spending, and unfounded liabilities. The financial collapse is "X" years away. Trump will help make X a larger number than Hillary or sanders or any of the unelectable republican candidates
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                  • Posted by $ 8 years, 3 months ago
                    But Trump won't try to slow this down. His view of eminent domain completely contradicts the founders on this topic. Property protection was built into the amendment that deals with eminent domain. This amendment is completely shot to hell now, thanks to people like Trump.
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                    • Posted by term2 8 years, 3 months ago
                      WAsnt it the Supreme Court that really put the nails in the coffin on eminent domain being OK? I know people on this forum just dislike anything that Trump does or did, but its nowhere as bad as what Hillary or Sanders have done and will do. Trump is the only one that can actually beat either of those two
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  • Posted by $ sjatkins 8 years, 3 months ago
    This does not follow as Iran has already made deals to sell its oil, principally to China and those deals have been in place long before this. Nor does it make since to claim that the Middle Eastern countries conspired to drive down oil prices this much. They don't remotely have that much power in the oil markets today. The US is today a larger oil producer than all of them combined and Russia is no small producer either.
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    • Posted by $ Olduglycarl 8 years, 3 months ago
      To my understanding, the really cheap oil is coming from South America and therefore driving prices down.
      And Yes...American crude plays a role here also.

      Interesting to note, (and it somewhat vets out) It has been revealed that some old wells have more oil in them after being played out years ago. There has been a discussion about how this happened. It might seem that oil is not the result of decaying fossils. Hot debate on both sides.
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  • Posted by laurienewsom 8 years, 3 months ago
    There is no doubt that the Iran deal is by design. Becoming allies with Iran ensures its power to overcome the other mideast countries including Saudi Arabia. Our dollar as the global currency is at stake as well as our sovereignty. I assume the plan is to ultimately create a global dominance of Iran/USA with the United States becoming a muslim dominated governance. With, of course, Obama as supreme ruler in his hopes.
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