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A simple analysis to quickly settle the AGW climate change debate

Posted by BrettRocketSci 9 years, 5 months ago to Science
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There was yet another story in the news about global warming and climate change and CO2. Doesn't matter which one--that and a holiday break motivated me to finally get this analysis of the physics and facts down in writing. The simple and quick analysis turned into a 3,300 word article, but I share it with you for your honest consideration and objective reaction. Thanks for reading and for any comments!
My article here: http://bit.ly/1YzQnFy


All Comments

  • Posted by 9 years ago
    Two big updates for everyone here. The original blog article has been published as a book!! Now on Amazon as paperback or eBook (Kindle) here:
    http://amzn.to/1RLHa8c. It has several updates, improvements, and elaborations on key points and arguments.
    And if you are on Facebook, there is a page for the book there too. I greatly appreciate you going here and "liking" the page, and sharing it if you are so bold: https://www.facebook.com/climatechang...
    The essay and effort is no longer associated with me...you'll see it with someone else now. But still wanted to share the update and opportunity to spread the message. Thanks to everyone here for the very positive and highly engaged reactions! It was a major factor in the later efforts.
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  • Posted by 9 years, 5 months ago in reply to this comment.
    Thanks Don. Turns out I have a commentor on my website who used the greenhouse effect as his argument against my article. The big problem is, the greenhouse effect is a METAPHOR or ANALOGY. It is not a description of the actual scientific process or physics that explains why and how CO2 is the unique and primary driver of the problem!! There is no solid film of plastic in our atmosphere! And it certainly isn't made of CO2!! I'm getting more feisty with my age I guess...
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  • Posted by 9 years, 5 months ago in reply to this comment.
    Hi Michael. See my reply from your link on an earlier comment. I appreciated your link and found it valuable, relevant, and thought-provoking. But I still questioned the alarmism with it. AND--that still has nothing to do with explaining how and why CO2 is the primary culprit!!
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  • Posted by 9 years, 5 months ago in reply to this comment.
    Exactly, thanks. It's really hard to believe there are so many people spending so much time and money modelling the entire global atmosphere to trace the impacts and effects of 0.04% of it...with so much confidence!! But apparently they are.
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  • Posted by bz1mcr 9 years, 5 months ago in reply to this comment.
    I guess at this point I should let the AGW supporters defend/support their arguments and claims. I am certainly no expert on the effects of CO2 in the atmosphere and why the AGW folks think they create a green house effect. That said, a green house (made of glass) does pretty much what you said. Glass lets the Sun warm the soil inside and reduces the energy getting out. Solar collectors do much the same.
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  • Posted by $ MichaelAarethun 9 years, 5 months ago
    The question about water levels connects with this. I learned again - what I had forgotten from High School -

    Water occupies a certain volume when frozen 9% rises above the surface level and 91% occupies the original space or volume under neath.

    Ice coming into the ocean from land affects the oceans water surface level with it's total volume one way or another. So melting glaciers is now a big deal... the projected amount if it all melted seems to hover around 2-3 meters or at the most about ten feet.

    Depending on tides that could mean the current high tide would be ten feet higher and the low tide ten feet higher at least in a holly wood thriller.

    One other factor is the difference between fresh water coming from land and salt water already in the ocean. The volume is different.

    So the worst that would happen is high tide would be ten feet higher than at present. Which would put a lot of shoreline, beaches, and a few docks under water...at high tide.

    The next question is how much of that 'new' water would be held captive in the atmosphere as part of the normal weather cycle given that the temperature of the atmosphere having presumably risen was capturing more for it's approx. nine day stay aloft.

    Reverse that to what happens if all the atmosphere captive water was dumped into the oceans and on land leaving nothing aloft.

    My imagination says a complete collapse of the weather cycle would have to occur since any complete absence would cause warming which would replenish the supply until some optimum balance had occurred.

    In any case the atmosphere would mollify to some extent the fall or rise in surface levels as would absorption into the land. Replacing the Ogalalla Aquifer would modify the final totals.

    Some points to ponder....
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  • Posted by $ MichaelAarethun 9 years, 5 months ago in reply to this comment.
    Are you using a computer or a a linked cell radio telephone? that has caused some missing post problems in the past.
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  • Posted by 9 years, 5 months ago in reply to this comment.
    Hi again CircuitGuy. I've read your disagreements here a couple of times and I still don't see anything fundamental to debate you on. Given the context of the AGW proponent's claims, or my framing of the debate (and it IS a debate AND controversy), I still appreciate your comments but don't have anything to say against them at this point.
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  • Posted by 9 years, 5 months ago in reply to this comment.
    Thanks Don. I'm still trying to follow your logic (or your account of their logic) for how and why CO2 is the driver here. So, more CO2 allows more of the sun's energy to pass THROUGH the atmosphere, thus heating our planet's surface? And it also contributes to preventing that same heat energy from dissipating OUT? I think we would both agree that is a fantastic claim--it's a bi-polar greenhouse gas?! But seriously, is any of this their argument?
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  • Posted by 9 years, 5 months ago in reply to this comment.
    That's very fascinating, thanks for the article Michael. It supports the claim that the oceans are an effective and huge heat sink. But I wasn't aware of these details and concerns. I still don't buy the alarmism...the only time they'll really be near their heat absorbing capacity is when they start boiling! Melting glaciers is a real concern, but then we get to the question of how best and when to address that if & when it happens.
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  • Posted by edweaver 9 years, 5 months ago in reply to this comment.
    96% may very well be possible. Makes the 90% that I have found in my research likely a low number. The truth is I don't know if these percentages are accurate but applying logic to the subject tells me that these numbers are likely very close. CO2 is a product of all decomposition. All plant life that dies every year will still die, emitting the same amount of CO2. But even if the number was 80%, humans would still have little impact.
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  • Posted by edweaver 9 years, 5 months ago in reply to this comment.
    Upon an initial scan of this article it seems to be giving an excuse for the lack of atmospheric temperature increase to the ocean's ability to store co2 & heat which I would tend to agree with. I'm not sure that I believe that the temperature of the oceans has increased however since a warmer ocean would produce more and larger hurricanes and it seems to me that these numbers are significantly lower in number & strength. Also part of the oceans are the sea ice at both poles and I understand those to be increasing as well. So are the oceans warmer?? Given the track record of the NOAA's track record of changing temperature data to fit the narrative I have no faith in their numbers.
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  • Posted by bz1mcr 9 years, 5 months ago
    As you say the AGW modelers don't agree on how to model the effect of moisture and clouds, and yet they go on modeling the effect of CO2 while admitting the clouds and moisture probably have a much larger effect. They don't know how to model it so they just ignore it and model what the think they understand.

    Another thing they don't know how to model is the heat flow from the earths core. All seem to agree the core is very hot and heat energy should be flowing to the cooler surface and atmosphere. But since there is no accepted explaination for the source of energy heating the core, it's magnitude, or how it might be changing they just leave it out of their models. Which I am sure I do not need to point out have a terrible record of predicting global warming. They seem to claim that we should believe them just because some smart people have worked hard on them and spent a lot of money. It seems to not be important that they don't work and ignore several factors which seem like they could be very important.
    Don
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  • Posted by bz1mcr 9 years, 5 months ago in reply to this comment.
    Brett, You are correct that it would be a very slow process if the suns energy had to first be absorbed by the atmosphere and then the atmosphere had to heat the rest of the planet (dirt, rock, water, et al).
    That is not what happens. The AGW modelers claim more of the suns energy is passing through the atmosphere hitting the Earth and less of the Earths radiated energy is passing out back into space.
    That difference in energy needs to overcome the heat capacity of the whole planet for its temperature to change. As you said the water and the rest of the planet has a tremendous total heat capacity. And, thus temperature can only change very slowly.

    Don
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  • Posted by bz1mcr 9 years, 5 months ago in reply to this comment.
    Again it seems you are off track. I never said anything about the air getting warmer first. The AGW guys say more energy is getting in through the atmosphere and less is getting out. The sun's energy heats everything, dirt, rock, water and atmosphere. And as you say the heat capacity of the atmosphere is tiny compared to rest. You are correct that if the atmosphere had to warm first and the transfer heat to the rest of the planet it would take a very long time. Especially if the atmosphere was only a fraction of a degree warmer. Energy flows very slow when the temperature difference is small.
    For some interesting reading try researching the impact of heat coming from the Earths core. No one seems to doubt that the core is very hot, but there is no agreement on why. Where does all that heat come from? The best scientific answer seems to be, some sort or nuclear reaction, but what controls it and how long will it go on? And how much of that heat reaches the crust. Just maybe the Earths temperature is not only a function of energy from the sun, but also a function of the energy being released from it's core.
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  • Posted by DrZarkov99 9 years, 5 months ago in reply to this comment.
    You're correct that even simple forms of logic seem to escape the liberal brain. The other lecture I often give, despite obvious incomprehension on the part of any liberals in the audience, is the law of diminishing returns. When I try to explain that continuing to demand ever-cleaner water and air drives the cost to astronomical levels, often without demonstrable gain, the response is usually "Well, what price would you put on the life of even one child saved?" Of course responding to that with the argument that the huge cost could save many more lives if the money went to medical research falls on deaf ears, smug that they "won" the argument.
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