REQUIEM FOR AN EMPIRE -- ONE
Posted by davidlaibow 10 years, 11 months ago to Politics
All empires rise, fall, and collapse; it's the way of history. The "British Empire" was a flamboyant overdescription; at its pre-World War I height, it was not an "empire" centrally ruled from London, but a worldwide network of colonies, dominions, and alliances. The others - from ancient Sumeria and Egypt, China, Greece, Rome, Spain, France, Russia, the Ottomans, to the present day, have risen, fallen, and collapsed, to be swept away and replaced by others, which rise, fall, and collapse, in their turns.
And so it will be with the American "empire", which rose more or less by accident in the aftermath of the Second World War, is falling now, and will probably collapse by the middle of the present century, to be succeeded by another predominant global imperial superpower, which will rise, fall and collapse in its turn. The American land and the American people will remain, but the economic, governmental, and social forms will differ from today’s.
In the 1980s, many expected "Japan, Incorporated" to succeed the United States as the world's next global imperial superpower; instead, Japan has had almost two decades of economic stagnation, and there’s no reason to expect an improvement which would restore Japan’s economy to its previous position.
China’s current upswing from an almost insignificant economic base, using low-wage manufacturing and mercantilism has given mainland China a momentary advantage. People who have an economic interest in misrepresenting this momentary advantage as the evidence of a coming imperial dominance can cherry-pick data to prove whatever they need to prove; the art and science of “statistics” is determining what conclusion you want to put about to the public, and arranging or inventing data to support what you need to prove.
Nations with low levels of productivity that industrialize will experience a sudden, dramatic increase in the gross domestic product’s annual growth rate – the effect of compound-interest mathematics guarantees that unless there is a steady, year-after-year increase, the growth rate declines again. America’s growth rate has declined over the past decade because each year’s growth has to be matched and then exceeded; the business cycle is the economic law of gravity; what goes up must come down, and unless you have a way to repeal that law, the cycle peaks and then declines (just because a person does not like the law of gravity doesn’t free them from it).
Much of China’s current economic upswing is based on producing low-cost, low-quality merchandise for the comparatively higher-living standard (maintained artificially by the 1930s “Fair Labor Standards Act” which established the federally mandated minimum wage, and the 1940s “Full Employment Act”, which obligated the federal government to maintain “unemployment” at less than 5 percent of the available workforce) American market; if declining sales in the declining American economy decrease those factory orders and shipments, the balloon deflates, and so does the Chinese growth rate. As they deflate, so does the possibility of China’s becoming the next imperium.
China could become the next “empire”, however, by default – American decline causes America to lose that role by its own actions, and those whose interests require an “empire” at the top of the international food chain find no one else suitable for the role but China. It is true that some of China’s eastern cities, such as Beijing and Shanghai, are as “first world” as New York or London; but the great mass of China’s territory and people are not part of this.
If America is the largest customer of China’s manufacturing economy, and the American economy declines significantly and massively, China has two choices: provide financial “life support” to the American economy to sustain its own position, or seek new economic partners. When that time comes, what happens to America, as a government, an economy, and a society?
Copyright 2013 by Caballa Family Enterprises, 2000 City of San Fernando Pampanga, Philippines
Contact email address: “davidlaibow1215[at]yahoo.com”
Re-Posted on “GaltsGulchOnline” on May 18, 2012
And so it will be with the American "empire", which rose more or less by accident in the aftermath of the Second World War, is falling now, and will probably collapse by the middle of the present century, to be succeeded by another predominant global imperial superpower, which will rise, fall and collapse in its turn. The American land and the American people will remain, but the economic, governmental, and social forms will differ from today’s.
In the 1980s, many expected "Japan, Incorporated" to succeed the United States as the world's next global imperial superpower; instead, Japan has had almost two decades of economic stagnation, and there’s no reason to expect an improvement which would restore Japan’s economy to its previous position.
China’s current upswing from an almost insignificant economic base, using low-wage manufacturing and mercantilism has given mainland China a momentary advantage. People who have an economic interest in misrepresenting this momentary advantage as the evidence of a coming imperial dominance can cherry-pick data to prove whatever they need to prove; the art and science of “statistics” is determining what conclusion you want to put about to the public, and arranging or inventing data to support what you need to prove.
Nations with low levels of productivity that industrialize will experience a sudden, dramatic increase in the gross domestic product’s annual growth rate – the effect of compound-interest mathematics guarantees that unless there is a steady, year-after-year increase, the growth rate declines again. America’s growth rate has declined over the past decade because each year’s growth has to be matched and then exceeded; the business cycle is the economic law of gravity; what goes up must come down, and unless you have a way to repeal that law, the cycle peaks and then declines (just because a person does not like the law of gravity doesn’t free them from it).
Much of China’s current economic upswing is based on producing low-cost, low-quality merchandise for the comparatively higher-living standard (maintained artificially by the 1930s “Fair Labor Standards Act” which established the federally mandated minimum wage, and the 1940s “Full Employment Act”, which obligated the federal government to maintain “unemployment” at less than 5 percent of the available workforce) American market; if declining sales in the declining American economy decrease those factory orders and shipments, the balloon deflates, and so does the Chinese growth rate. As they deflate, so does the possibility of China’s becoming the next imperium.
China could become the next “empire”, however, by default – American decline causes America to lose that role by its own actions, and those whose interests require an “empire” at the top of the international food chain find no one else suitable for the role but China. It is true that some of China’s eastern cities, such as Beijing and Shanghai, are as “first world” as New York or London; but the great mass of China’s territory and people are not part of this.
If America is the largest customer of China’s manufacturing economy, and the American economy declines significantly and massively, China has two choices: provide financial “life support” to the American economy to sustain its own position, or seek new economic partners. When that time comes, what happens to America, as a government, an economy, and a society?
Copyright 2013 by Caballa Family Enterprises, 2000 City of San Fernando Pampanga, Philippines
Contact email address: “davidlaibow1215[at]yahoo.com”
Re-Posted on “GaltsGulchOnline” on May 18, 2012
