Why I don't dabble in derivatives

Posted by $ blarman 10 years, 2 months ago to Business
33 comments | Share | Flag

Not that I have money for investing in stocks either... This just demonstrates how corrupt the market has gotten.

I'm wondering if the market wouldn't be better off if there were just basic stocks (offering dividends) and bonds (offering flat rate payouts) and we did away with all the other chicanery. What say you?


All Comments

  • Posted by $ Olduglycarl 10 years, 2 months ago
    Agreed...I would also would like to see public corporations more concerned about the end user of their products or services instead of the stock holders. Stock holders, in my view, should not have any say in the company. The company should work for the happiness, satisfaction and good health of it's customers. If they do business that way...the stock holders will make out just fine. If the company screws up...then you dump the stock. This is a truer free market view I think.
    What do you think?
    Reply | Permalink  
  • Posted by salta 10 years, 2 months ago in reply to this comment.
    If an energy consumer buys crude futures, that is a hedge. If the crude price rises, so would their costs as consumer, but they also profit from holding futures. The person on the opposite side of that trade is the speculator, though buyer and seller are not matched like that in the market. The speculator might not be in the position for long, but the hedger probably is.
    Hedging is always reduction of risk, like buying insurance. Speculation is always taking on risk.
    The meaning of the words are confused in media reports. Like when JP Morgan announced they lost $2bln on a "hedging loss" in 2012, it was worded like that for the regulator's benefit. It would have been less accepted if they said they lost it on a speculation that went wrong.
    Reply | Permalink  
  • Comment hidden due to member score or comment score too low. View Comment
  • Posted by $ MichaelAarethun 10 years, 2 months ago in reply to this comment.
    Bank said only one account per customer was FDIC covered to that amount and mentioned using LLC's to have accounts in other banks if one should have that much extra. I'm reading a runup learning curve book on LLC's at present along with three others. I keep one on the table by the computer, two by my bunk and one in the rucksack for getting caught waiting for something while out shopping or whatever or bus time. The FDIC didn't sound at all appetising nor did the zero interest T Bills unless you really trusted the government. Still and the system is against it i can't see risking $ when you have enough and then some unless you see inflation going up at 15 to 20 percent plus a year. In that case i would go find a safe hard money currency - and a ten gauge.
    Reply | Permalink  
  • Posted by Herb7734 10 years, 2 months ago
    Did you lose money in the stock market? With derivatives, or just trying to beat the roulette investment wheel? Aw, poor baby. Who held a gun to your head and made you invest?
    Who was it who said, "Sure the game is rigged, but if you don't play, you can't win?"
    All of life is chancy. Look at the folks who invested in the making of the "Atlas Shrugged" triple header. If I had that much money, I might well have put it in a pile, sat on the pile with my shotgun and dared someone to try to get any of it. But in another way, my gambling was in start-up businesses. I knew I could rely on myself and my willingness to work hard which made up for the lack of funds. (If you do the work of three, you save the wages of two.).
    Reply | Permalink  
  • Posted by Abaco 10 years, 2 months ago in reply to this comment.
    Yes. Kaplan, and their competitors all offer study guides. One could probably be found in a library. It covers everything for the Series 7 - registered rep (stock broker). Very good source of basics on registered securities.
    Reply | Permalink  
  • Posted by Danno 10 years, 2 months ago
    Futures and Options are valid for product hedging. For example, a farmer does not know what the price of corn will be in 6 months so does a cost analysis and buys a future to hedge his bets. If he decides to sell his Future contract that is OK. If a broker creates a Futures contract not based on an existing product (in development or planned) and sells it that is NOT OK. Naked shorts in futures market should be banned except the government is using them to kept the price of gold down.
    Reply | Permalink  
  • Posted by davidmcnab 10 years, 2 months ago
    The markets are capitalist by nature. It's only natural that financial operatives will devise products they think they can sell and make money from.
    Derivatives aren't all bad. For instance, a steep put option can handsomely reward someone who steps back from the masses, looks at the fundamentals, and determines that an equity is severely overpriced and due for correction. Similar is the reward of a call option for someone who has uncovered an absolute gem, such as a company which has invented a machine that converts atmospheric static into usable energy.
    Reply | Permalink  
  • Posted by johnpe1 10 years, 2 months ago
    derivatives are neat, especially in differential equations!!! -- j
    .
    Reply | Permalink  
  • Posted by johnpe1 10 years, 2 months ago in reply to this comment.
    isn't that the way the housing bubble was created? . and
    maybe also the dot com bubble? -- j
    .
    Reply | Permalink  
  • Posted by scojohnson 10 years, 2 months ago in reply to this comment.
    Ultimately though, your are betting for or against a 3rd party that theoretically you have no control over. For the major market-makers, they do and always have tilted the table in their favor.

    As you pointed out, who wants to spend their retirement pouring over computer screens every day... ? Easier to enjoy life, and I've always found, easier to control your own business / your own destiny and be certain of the outcomes .
    Reply | Permalink  
  • Posted by scojohnson 10 years, 2 months ago in reply to this comment.
    You just split among multiple accounts, each insured for $250,000. That's not a barrier, only if you want bragging rights to show a statement to someone.
    Reply | Permalink  
  • Posted by straightlinelogic 10 years, 2 months ago in reply to this comment.
    I couldn't agree with you more. In the last crisis, they put in short sale bans on some financial stocks. Changing rules is definitely another risk factor with derivatives.
    Reply | Permalink  
  • Posted by scojohnson 10 years, 2 months ago
    Participating in a free capitalist market is one thing... choosing to gamble your hard-earned money in a rigged system is another... The market-makers are not going to take the bad side of trades, so what is offered for sale are more of the sucker-bets. The odds are probably better than a slot machine in Vegas, but probably not by much.
    Reply | Permalink  
  • Posted by $ 10 years, 2 months ago in reply to this comment.
    I've normally equated hedging with risk management and Beta. It's diversification of one's portfolio in case of unforeseen events. Speculation is just a generic term for someone who takes a financial investment position based on where one thinks the market is going. I don't really see the direct connection between speculation and hedging. Hedging can be simply taking equity positions (stock) in two competing companies rather than investing solely in one. Speculation, however, is only really valuable if you are betting against the market in general - if you are convinced that some specific aspect of the market is going to run counter to what everyone else is betting on. To me, that's not an investment with a reasonable expectation of return, but pure gambling. I'd appreciate it if you could connect the dots.
    Reply | Permalink  
  • Posted by salta 10 years, 2 months ago in reply to this comment.
    I've been thinking since my earlier reply. Instead of futures (which is just one of many instruments), look from a different angle, the functions of speculation and hedging.
    Hedging is reduction of an existing risk, and helps commerce function. Speculation is taking on that risk from hedgers. It is a dependent relationship... hedgers need speculators. The fact that speculation volume can be much larger than the hedgers need just makes a market more efficient.
    Reply | Permalink  
  • Posted by $ TomB666 10 years, 2 months ago in reply to this comment.
    Thanks for the post SLL. You do a great job of explaining things :-)

    Do you recall back in the 1960's (or was it early 70's?) when the Hunt brothers had cornered the market on silver? As I recall the people running the system changed the rules ex post facto so their friends on the losing side of the trades did not actually have to deliver silver.

    When the rules can be changed against those of us who are not 'connected' to favor those who are, I want no part of such a market. If you are a particularly astute trader and can see it coming so that you can bail in time more power to you. I'd rather deal with things and people who keep their word.
    Reply | Permalink  
  • Posted by salta 10 years, 2 months ago in reply to this comment.
    There are plenty of books on futures trading out there (but I'm not recommending trading, it would be a minefield for "dabbling"). For a layman's overview of the industry, most of those books usually have some good intro chapters. Worth browsing in a bookstore.
    Reply | Permalink  
  • Posted by $ 10 years, 2 months ago in reply to this comment.
    Investment is capital applied toward productivity. The bigger question is what type of productivity (if any) you want to enable through your capital and what type of return you want to allow others to use that capital. If you have no intention of allowing others use of that capital - even for a price - I don't see any obligation to do so.
    Reply | Permalink  
  • Posted by blackswan 10 years, 2 months ago
    If there was no reason for a security to exist, it wouldn't. Perhaps the only caveat is that these securities should be constrained from being used multiple times as collateral. The entire global GDP is around $60 trillion, so how can derivatives rack up a quadrillion? It can be difficult explaining how the insurance on a product can be worth 15 times the value of that product.
    Reply | Permalink  
  • Comment hidden due to member score or comment score too low. View Comment
  • Posted by $ MichaelAarethun 10 years, 2 months ago
    My sister's friend at work won a state lottery. She confided and asked Sis about the best way to invest. We had discussed that previously.

    Figure the amount of years left in your life span plus five or even ten.

    Divide the after tax portion by that number.

    You will be in one of three catagories.

    a. Not enough to make a long term real difference but maybe enough to worry about investing

    b. Enough if spread out over the time span and keep working to 66 or whatever it is now.,

    c. Enough to quit work immediately

    If it's b or c your main concern is protecting your funds. Relatives, friends, commission agents, moochers of all kinds are now your biggest worry. There is no need to invest unless you live in a high inflation economy. In that case move to Mexico - or elsewhere. A zero interest account means no tax consequence each year.

    Two kinds of those besides the mattress and one - banks etc. have FDIC max'd at $250,000. Not a place to park a million in lottery net although their are ways through LLC's. The other is zero interest T Bills which means you will still lose to inflation but that's a smaller loss than eventually getting a check for $250,000.

    In a nutshell do you NEED to invest. If you already have enough...Why?
    Reply | Permalink  
  • Posted by freedomforall 10 years, 2 months ago
    Derivatives are financial instruments that allow banksters to manipulate prices of real commodities.
    (This is not to say that there aren't legal, ethical uses for such instruments, but the rules are designed to allow insiders to manipulate prices and manipulate producers of the real commodities.)
    They destroy markets. The excuse that they create liquidity is a smokescreen to protect the guilty and hide their unethical manipulation of markets. They can't profit in a free market, so they manipulate it to steal from others.
    Reply | Permalink  
  • Posted by mia767ca 10 years, 2 months ago
    i have lived off of trading options for the last 8 years...4% return per month on average...i also teach others how to do it...i trade credit spreads and L.E.A.P.s...i let my winners run and cut my losers short...my basic rule is that your money should work hard for you...you should not work hard for your money...with that said, there is a learning curve that takes time to understand the world of derivatives...my email is: mia767ca@aol.com ...i am a retired airline pilot
    Reply | Permalink  
  • Posted by straightlinelogic 10 years, 2 months ago
    I've made and lost a lot of money in derivatives (derivative: a financial instrument whose price is derived from another financial instrument, an index, a commodity, or other financial variables) markets, both personally and running a trading desk for a firm of which I was a partner and member of the executive committee. There are things to both like and hate about derivatives. Derivatives--credit default swaps and S and P put options--enabled me to financially express a view that things were going to fall apart during the last financial crisis. Without derivatives, it is almost impossible to speculate and profitt from negative outcomes in financial markets. From my standpoint, that is derivatives' chief benefit. It is the same reason I like playing craps; it's the only gambling game that you can bet either for or against the shooter.

    However, the crisis also demonstrated the dark side of derivatives. First and foremost is counterparty risk. Much of the unraveling of the crisis was due to the failure of counterparties (AIG, Lehman Brothers) daisy chaining through an inextricably intertwined system. People who point to the notatial value of interest rate swaps, credit default swaps, and other over the counter derivatives (now estimated at over $600 trillion) are pooh-poohed because most of those swaps are netted by derivatives dealers against swaps going the other way. The net exposures are small fractions of the gross notational amounts. Unfortunately, when a counterparty fails, the net exposure becomes the gross exposure, and that's what happened last time and will happen again.

    The counterparty risk contributes to the other big risk in derivatives: liquidity risk. We saw a couple of weeks ago with ETF pricing the liquidity risk in a product whose reference instruments are regulated and priced on an exchange (ETFs are derivatives; their pricing is derived from the price of a basket of financial instruments or an index). When the SHTF, liquidity dries up, and that is even more so when the products are traded over the counter. The market makers for interest rate swaps (by far the largest OTC derivative) and credit default swaps are the giant banks. As a very small participant in the those markets, when my trading desk tried to institute or unwind positions, we were looking at huge spreads. The market makers have fought tooth-and-nail against measures that would make those markets more transparent, or, by bringing them onto an exchange, more competitive. Now, with Dodd-Frank regulations and the Volker rule, those derivative markets, as well as more mundane bond markets, are even less liquid. When the SHTF this time, it won't be a situation of wide bid-ask spreads, it will be a situation of no market at all.

    One final note. Now that I've retired from finance, I do not speculate in derivatives. It was hard enough when I had a Bloomberg machine and other computer systems that gave me virtually instantaneous access to information and markets. You have to be completely on top of it to have any hope of success. Without such systems, speculating in derivatives is a sucker's game. For interest rate and credit default swaps, it requires a multi-million dollar stake just to participate.
    Reply | Permalink  

  • Comment hidden. Undo