People in urban areas wouldn't need bicycles, or horses, they could walk. But it wouldn't make any difference because they would be starving without food.

This is one of the reasons I like the Gulch.

I just did a bit of research and the Census Bureau says that 80% of the US pop of 320M is urban - but they include some really little towns (2,000 pop) as urban, so I do not think that figure is a good fit for catastrophe analysis. I looked up the megaregions of the US (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Megareg...) and added them up and got 233M living in mega cities (which comes to 72%).

I think - and I am making this up - that,in the advent of a infrastructure collapse that lasts longer than 3 weeks, people in rural areas will do OK but people in urban areas will experience about a 10% survival rate. That means that, just taking the megacities into account, the US population would drop to 110M. If you also assume that some - let me make up the figure "20%" - of the rural population will also not survive, then we are down to about 92.6 million people in the US.

There are an estimated 100 million bicycles in the US. I assume that there are also a lot of spare parts - tires and gear cables. (And I doubt that everyone will be riding a bicycle - people in really rural areas may go straight to horse transportation.) So I think that bicycles will be a viable first step - and there will be enough for each household member to have their own.

After that, bicycles will be scavenged to repair other bicycles and self-replicating transportation (horses) will become popular again.

Jan, trying to be one of the 10%

Unless they had the Anthricite Card...

(Roll ad..)

P-38 can opener on a rusty ball chain - ₡ (Charcoal lumpia) 35.00
Rusty and dented but intact can of Dinty Moore Chili from the 1970's - ₡1300.00
Telling a mugger that he shouldn't stab you for your almost-edible chili because you used to be the lead singer for Led Zeppelin? Worthless.

There are some things charcoal can't buy. For everything else, there's the Anthracite ServiCard.

You have previously endorsed revolution to bring down the system. It's not very "nuanced". You don't have to discuss it if you don't want to.

No, I didn't. You are apparently unable to understand nuanced English language if any of it is in any way in disagreement with your perception. Have no idea what you are talking about, but I have no more time to waste with you. You are welcomed to the last word.

You just changed the subject again. I have no idea how the 2nd amendment is related to your understanding of the 1st amendment. If you are advocating armed revolution again, then "no".

I think there would be a shortage of used bicycles, even for those who didn't starve first. Also parts wear out. You would soon be riding on the rims with no brake pads and with broken gear cables. :-(

And the second comment reinforced my understanding of the first.
But you disagree. So be it.

No, I would buy a modern bicycle with the gold.

The reason I think that primitivism will stop at about 1900/1940 is that information and capabilities are too well distributed to go below that point. I know a lot of people with forges who can do excellent blacksmithing, for instance, and refined metal is all around us.

The reason I could buy a modern bicycle is darker: in any major collapse, it will be the large cities that suffer the greatest loss of life. There will be many modern bicycles waiting to be 'mined' and re-sold.

Jan

He asked if it would help to have gold if the major economies of the world were to collapse and then said "I like to let my posts go where they go."

Obviously your reading and mine differ.

Could be. But good luck trying to buy even a 1900 bicycle. A lot of simpler technology has already been displaced by advancements whose loss would not automatically return to a simpler level.

No he did not. He said he didn't mind if the discussion wandered. You don't have to discuss the original question if you don't want to.

I suspect that in the US, 'primitivism' would be circa 1900 technology, with medicine at about 1940.

I think for any collapse, gold would be at least a 'pass through' phase - which would give you one last chance to buy survival stuff. No one knows, when a collapse starts 'at what point will it end'. If the collapse is local, then gold will still be worthwhile at the end of the collapse. If the collapse is universal, then gold will be a pass through phase and then we will go to barter for a while.

Jan

The original poster has indicated his question was not as limited as you assumed. Lets go on to something more productive.

I like to let my posts go where they go. No worries.

I don't have to read his mind. I read the question. If he meant something else he can amend it.

That is your opinion, again, and your opinion is no more valid than any other opinion. You can't read rich's mind, so you are making assumptions about what he means, and so is everyone who commented. You haven't the information to limit the breadth of rich's question.

With all of that happening on a global scale, which is much worse than the Great Depression, the economy would most likely literally cease to function. Gold is not an intrinsic value, guaranteed regardless of economic circumstances.

There are all kinds of political consequences, not irrelevant to the topic, but that isn't what he asked.

My thinking was more along the lines of an economic collapse. Crashing stock markets, failed currencies, bankrupt States and Countries...

Good one, Susanne.
Without the ability to create legal tender from nothing, the 'credit card' would not exist in any form. The consumer economy would have been tiny and the world would be a different place.
I suspect organized religion might have more power and corporate ceos would not be rock stars. Even rock stars wouldn't be rock stars ;^)

THAT is the real question that you didn't specify in the original post. How much disaster and how did it occur? Did it destroy the infrastructure or just the con game financial system? If its the latter and there are no nuclear or bio attacks in "retaliation" then the trading system will be rebuilt after a period of 'difficulty' (including significant loss of life in the short term) and gold and silver will likely be valuable in the aftermath. If the infrastructure (power, water, communication, transportation) is in shambles and the survivors find themselves in the pre-electric age then other commodities will be of more value.

Want a few beans for some rice?

And many people answered after thinking about the essence of the question and the consequences rationally.