The more electric vehicles we build, the greater CO2 emissions we get. - CEO of Toyota Motors, Akio Toyoda

Posted by freedomforall 3 months, 4 weeks ago to Business
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Ignoring the fact that CO2 doesn't affect Climate in any meaningful way, the CEO of Toyota at least recognizes there is no way to produce enough low-CO2 energy to support civilization.

“The more EVs we build, the worse carbon dioxide gets…When politicians are out there saying, ‘Let’s get rid of all cars using gasoline,’ do they understand this?”

“The current business model of the car industry is going to collapse,” warns Akio Toyoda – if the virtue-signaling (and mandating and subsidizing) of electric cars isn’t dialed back. Because there’s no mass market for electric cars, which are too expensive to be mass-market cars.

It’s the math, man.

This idea that people who can barely manage a six-year-loan on a $25,000 car will somehow manage a loan on a $32,000 electric car (the lowest-priced electric car currently available) is as ridiculous as the idea that everyone will eat steak and lobster twice a week if the government so orders.

Unless someone else pays for it. Who will that be?

If from subsidies, then the people will pay that way – via taxes – and have even less ability to afford to replace their $25,000 non-electric car with a $32,000 electric car.

It can be printed, of course. Or hey! presto!’d into digitized existence. But then the people pay via inflation – the depreciated buying power of the money they have available. This is why the car industry will “collapse” if Electric Car Dementia isn’t treated somehow.

You cannot sell cars that people can’t afford to buy.

Toyoda – who knows numbers – did the math. And not just the MSRP math.

He added up the volts and watts that would be needed to power the replacement of the existing fleet of non-electric cars in Japan with electric cars and found there isn’t enough electricity to power an all-electric car fleet in Japan and power everything else that runs on electricity in Japan – like electric lights and electric ovens and electric water pumping stations and all the other things which are powered by volts and watts in Japan.

Something will have to give.

Or go dark.

Unless a sum on the order of several hundred billion dollars – the yen equivalent – is conjured to finance the building of the additional generating capacity needed to cover the additional demand.

Where will that money come from?

Because even if the money could be found to subsidize a mass-fleet of electric cars and pay for the additional generating capacity needed to power them, that additional generating capacity would result in an increase in the amount of the dread inert gas, C02, being ”emitted” – because the additional generating capacity that would be needed to support the powering of a fleet of electric cars and everything else cannot be met using solar, wind or hydro-electric power.

They simply can’t generate the megawattage. Which leaves coal/oil natural gas (which together account for about 80 percent of grid power) and these large-scale industrial emitters already emit a great deal more C02 than individual non-electric cars, combined.

To meet the increased demand, it will be necessary to build more coal/oil/natural-gas burning utility plants."
SOURCE URL: https://www.ericpetersautos.com/2020/12/19/oh-what-a-feeling/

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  • Posted by $ Stormi 3 months, 3 weeks ago
    Back druing Obama, they proved the carbon footprint of the batteries were greater from production to disposal, than running a conventional car.
    Then there is the issue of the power grid, not at all able now, much less when we go to solar and windmill, to recharge these things. It is just madness, we will all be in darkness before they are done. Poor people will not be able to have a car, the cost and repairs will just be prohibitive, so, we will start to hear mass transportation again, as we are hearded into urban gulags.
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  • Posted by mspalding 3 months, 3 weeks ago
    Nuclear. Nuclear power will provide carbon-free electricity to power electric cars. Who will pay? The consumers who are now buying electricity instead of gasoline. Simple economics will solve these problems. Of course, then there's the goverment. They have huge regs that make nukes expensive. They slow economic growth with huge taxes that may erroneously be partially used to subsidize electrics. They print huge amounts of money that reduces the purchasing power of our money.
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    • Posted by $ blarman 3 months, 2 weeks ago
      Nuclear could solve a lot of problems with power generation. Especially if they converted from using uranium/plutonium to thorium. It doesn't solve the economic problems with electric cars, however.
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  • Posted by shaifferg 3 months, 3 weeks ago
    Has anyone else read about "small" nuclear power plants? Read an article recently about a company building tiny nuclear plants of a few hundred KW. A size that would run a small plant or 50 or so homes.
    One unit could supply an entire apartment building. Estimated lifetime 40 to 50 years with no maintenance. Different approach using sodium instead of converting water to steam and running a steam alternator the way the Navy ships do. A few designs have been approved.
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    • Posted by $ blarman 3 months, 2 weeks ago
      I think you're referring to thorium reactors, which are much less dangerous and don't require the huge containment vessels of a uranium/plutonium plant. Yes, those present some remarkable options if only we could start putting them in place...
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  • Posted by 25n56il4 3 months, 4 weeks ago
    I have a question? Or two! How much does the darling little battery that operates this electric vehicle cost to replace it? What is the life expectancy of said battery? How does an electric car hold up in a flood zone area? We drive through a lot of water on the Texas Gulf Coast.
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    • Posted by Lucky 3 months, 4 weeks ago
      $5000 to $10,000 cost to replace.
      5 to 10 years.
      Flooding, with good design this could be ok.

      As well-
      30 min to 2 hour to charge.
      Low accuracy on indicator of remaining charge.
      So, either you operate with a big safety margin on range, or factor in the cost of a tow home (on a diesel truck?) every year.
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      • Posted by 3 months, 3 weeks ago
        More falsehoods about electric cars exposed
        "Would you wait 15 minutes to get a fast-food hamburger?

        Electric cars will make you wait longer. This includes even those which are touted as being capable of receiving a “fast” charge in 15 minutes or so. Because you’ll have to wait for the car plugged-in ahead of you to “fast” charge.

        This assumes you’re second in line. If you’re third . . .

        Well, they’ll just install more places to plug in. It is not as easy as it sounds because of the problem in physics of two objects not being able to occupy the same space at the same time. To achieve the same capacity to charge as many electric cars as a gas station is capable of refueling in an hour, it would be necessary to at least quintuple the physical size of the charging station, to compensate for the quintupling of the time it takes to recharge each EV vs. the time it takes to refuel a non-electric car.

        Think they’ll figure out a way to reduce recharging time such that it’s about the same as the time it takes to gas up a non-electric car? The problem there is that the faster you recharge a battery, the more you reduce its life – and increase the odds of a fire.

        There is a reason why you trickle charge batteries – if possible.
        It is usually not a problem – with lawn mower batteries and such – because you have the time to wait. But it’s a problem with electric car batteries, if you don’t like to wait. Unless you don’t mind risking a fire. Or reducing the useful life of the battery – which costs a great deal more to replace than a lawn mower battery.

        These batteries – EV batteries – are also enormous, mainly because people expect an EV to duplicate (at least) the performance capabilities of a non-electric car. To do that requires about 1,000 pounds of batteries on average, which orders-of-magnitude increases the raw materials demand that goes into batteries, as well as the energy required to make the batteries, which are among the least renewable (in terms of what goes into making them) things on the market.

        You have probably heard of “Peak Oil.” We have been hearing about it for the past 60 years. You probably have not heard about Peak Cobalt. Expect to hear about it – but probably not until after non-electric cars have been regulated off the market. The cost of electric cars is a function of the cost of cobalt – including the human cost of this unpleasant but necessary-to-EV-batteries substance.

        There’s another problem, unique to things powered by electricity.

        You cannot just pour it in, as you do with gasoline. Electricity doesn’t sit ready-to-go in storage tanks, underneath the pumps. It has to be transmitted as demanded – via cables from the generating source – and this requires cables of much greater capacity than your household extension cord.

        This is why it is not possible to “fast” charge an EV at most private homes. You can reduce the waiting time from eight or more hours but not to 15 minutes. Not without upgrading your house to commercial-grade electric capacity.

        And then there’s that increased risk of burning your house down.

        Finally, a word about “fast” charging – which even where feasible is only partial charging. You cannot fully “refill” a battery “fastly” – as you can fully refuel a non-electric car’s tank, quickly.

        Which means more frequent charging.

        Which, in turn, compounds the throughput problem as well as the charge-capacity and fire-potential problems, all those electric cars recharging in a hurry, more frequently.

        And losing their capacity to be recharged more quickly – the more often they are “fast” charged.

        These are EV facts but most people aren’t aware of them for the same reason they’re unaware of the 99.8-plus percent chance you won’t die if you get the WuFlu, if you’re not very elderly and very sick already. It is also why most people have no idea that the big pharmaceutical companies who stand to reap billions in profits from mandated or coerced vaccinations are immune from being sued for any sicknesses caused by their vaccines.

        The reason for this lack of awareness is the same.

        You are being sold on something you probably wouldn’t buy, if you knew what you were buying. They want you to think you are buying something else. Something that makes sense. But if that were the case, why don’t they give you all the facts?

        That they don’t ought to give you a moment’s pause."
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        • Posted by evlwhtguy 3 months, 3 weeks ago
          Great points....Here is another point you could make.....you mentioned "To do that requires about 1,000 pounds of batteries on average"....what does that do to the "gas mileage of the vehicle??? A full tank of gas is like 12 to 15 gallons....this only weighs 75 to 100 pounds....and gets lighter as you use it. the batteries weigh 1,000 pounds empty or full.
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      • Posted by 3 months, 4 weeks ago
        Anti-matter cars, that's the answer. ;^)
        It may take that long for battery-electric cars to become as reliable and affordable as ICE cars, if they ever do. Point is that it will take some quantum leap in technology to get there, and it may be a completely different portable power solution.
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    • Posted by $ blarman 3 months, 2 weeks ago
      Average replacement cost on a typical car-sized battery is $10K. Even at $4/gallon, that's a lot of gas. And the life span on a battery is only about 3 years. That means that people are going to be selling their electric vehicles around that 2-1/2 year mark or so to get out of replacing the battery. And the ones who don't are going to get caught by surprise when they find out that their batteries are dying.
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    • Posted by 3 months, 4 weeks ago
      If I recall, Tesla gives a 3 year warranty on its batteries. I can't say what the replacement cost will be, but in the past I have read it can be substantially greater than replacing an engine in an ICE vehicle.
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  • Posted by GaryL 3 months, 3 weeks ago
    How much coal, diesel, NG, solar or wind power does it take to recharge all these electric vehicles and how much does it cost to produce all these energy producing power sources? I have heard it many times that the cost to produce just one wind turbine, everything from the ground minerals to the finished wind mill is much greater than the energy output from it over its entire life expectancy. Solar panels are not much cheaper and from what I have been told if your electric car needs a charge from a pay for charging station it will cost between $30-$40. Here where I live the most expensive utility for my home is electricity and an electric car on charge every few days would run my meter past the typical red line on most tachometers.
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  • Posted by $ Thoritsu 3 months, 3 weeks ago
    First, I believe he is trying to protect his loathsome investments in hydrogen, which is F A R, F A R worse! It is the worst snake oil, ever proposed in the energy market. His statement about renewables is wrong as well. Renewables are more like 20% worldwide, and 15.5% in the US.

    2. Second, I do not see how EVs are any more CO2/vehicle to produce than ICE vehicles. We already replace vehicles, like a person replaces their skin. Every 5-10 years the vehicles on the road change anyway. Therefore, this part of the argument is irrelevant.

    3. The additional rating required from the electric utility infrastructure is about 50%, total energy/yr. EVs are about twice as efficient as ICE vehicles. Transportation and utility consume about equal fuel today. Therefore, converting transportation to electric is about a 50% increase. This is anything but ominous. We also know, that the distribution infrastructures are obsolete, and in need of refreshing.

    I am not a fan of subsidy. I do not have an EV. I do not believe CO2 is the ominous menace that chicken-little wants to say it is. However, these are not reasons to disparage EVs.

    EVs have excellent performance, efficiency, and prices are simply controlled by battery prices. Battery capacity is doubling and price is dropping in half every 10 years. EVs are coming. We don't need subsidy, and we should not view technically and economically inevitable as wrong or forced.

    Toyota's history should present them as suspect. Market dumping, slowest fuel injection adoption, buying battery technology from Ford (and acting like they are the Green Company), and now investment in hydrogen. This company is happy to lie to get what it wants.
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    • Posted by 3 months, 3 weeks ago
      I'm not surprised that we agree. Toyota has a vested interest. So does every car maker, and most are glad to take subsidies.
      Electric cars aren't competitive with ICE cars today except for buyers with money to burn, and at that, only with governments stealing from others to subsidize electrics for fraudulent reasons.
      The need for additional power generation and infrastructure if electric vehicles become mainstream is real and the cost in the trillions.
      If the free market can bear those costs and produce a product that out competes ICE vehicles, more power to it. ;^)
      They might get my dollars when that happens. At present they are stealing from me for a fraudulent purpose. (What else is new?)
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      • Posted by $ Thoritsu 3 months, 3 weeks ago
        Right on.

        I really have a problem with Toyota. They have an unearned reputation for quality that precipitated by a love for America-bashing. (Don't get me started on Consumer Reports). Similarly the Prius is a POS. The Volt was MUCH better, yet market inertia and bias would not allow GM to have such a car, and a better car bombed. Honda is similar, but at least they invent real technology.
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        • Posted by 3 months, 3 weeks ago
          Unfortunately, Honda's expertise doesn't extend to physically beautiful cars - except the Accura NSX. That dedication to ugly and the price premium they had for years kept me buying other better looking cars and cursing the multitude of slow driven Hondas and Camrys seemingly always in my way. ;^)
          My last made-in-America car purchase was ... never. I bought a Mercury Capri in '74 but it was made in Germany. I did love a '69 Chevelle 350 convertible that my Dad loaned to me in '73, but it was great engine, poor handling, poor braking - pretty much standard for that time.
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          • Posted by Steven-Wells 3 months, 3 weeks ago
            I've only owned American-built cars, only one of which I purchased new. In nearly sequential order, Chevy Impala ('59 with the cat's eyes taillights), Ford Galaxy, Pontiac Custom S, Ford LTD, Chrysler Cordoba, and Ford Thunderbird. And 5 Corvettes. I recently sold my 4th Vette, a gorgeous metallic red 2004. That one was sleek and very fast and had great handling and brakes. Also good gas mileage. I've had my 2019 Corvette Grand Sport for several months since I purchased it in Florida and drove it home to California (at a little more than 23 miles per gallon). In comparison with the previous one, it feels likes a wild beast. Way more engine, super handling, and unbelievable braking. It feels like I'm piloting a rhinoceros that jumps up to a hundred miles an hour in a few seconds and turns like a cheetah.
            What was my point, anyway? Oh, yes, the time it takes to fill the gas tank versus recharge an electric vehicle. Going multiple days of 700+ miles per day (okay, slow sight-seeing days were only 550+ miles) is it even possible to travel long distances with electric cars? I've done many long distance cars trips. 800 miles in a day. 900 miles in a day. My longest was a 1,200-mile day.
            Meanwhile, for all the electricity hungry cars, we should be building molten Thorium salt nuclear reactors all over the place. Fuel is super abundant and relatively small water sources are sufficient for cooling. Near oceans, as a side effect, they emit desalinated water, which farmers in thirsty California would love to have.
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            • Posted by $ blarman 3 months, 2 weeks ago
              That's one of the reasons you don't see any electric tractors - range. They've focused instead on lightweight materials for the cabs including carbon-fiber shells. The sheer weight of the batteries needed for a tractor-trailer rig is just ridiculous...
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            • Posted by 3 months, 3 weeks ago
              I completely agree, S-W. When I go on the road in the MX5 I often go 800-1000 miles in a day. I think the best the battery in Tesla will do when brand new (and not using the heat or a/c) is 300 to 400.
              👍 on building Thorium generators, too.
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          • Posted by $ Thoritsu 3 months, 3 weeks ago
            Oh? I have a Ford Focus RS. I bet that would scratch your performance itch.

            Capri was cool. Liked that thing. It came with a line OHC motor and I think it was offered with the Cologne V6, a version of which is in my 2004 Ranger. That engine went from 1962 to 2011, and it made better hp and torque than the "modern" Toyota small truck V6.
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            • Posted by 3 months, 3 weeks ago
              I enjoyed the Capri with that 2800 V6.
              (It followed a 6-month trying experience with a '73 Jensen Healey. The Lotus engine was sooo good when it was right, but it leaked oil from the valve cover and puddled around the spark plugs.)
              My business partner has a Focus, but not the RS. He has had one for about 12 years and he says its the last car he will buy. He recently sold his Honda S2000 because he wasn't driving it enough.
              My performance itch isn't as demanding as it once was. My '99 MX5 lacks a bit in power but almost makes up for it in handling and driving fun. It's scheduled for a new clutch, brakes, and valve cover gasket in January.
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              • Posted by $ Thoritsu 3 months, 3 weeks ago
                S2000s are cool. I also have a Lotus 7, with a supercharged 2.0 Zetec engine and T9 transmission. Had a chance to get one with an S2000 drivetrain, and STI rear axle. Wish I had bought that one!

                MX5s are cool, but you should get a Miata with the retractable hardtop! Those drive great, and the new ones went on a diet. Turbo kits make these fantastic!!!
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                • Posted by 3 months, 3 weeks ago
                  The models with the hard top convertible gave up all the space behind the seats. Too much to give up for me. Its my only vehicle and sometimes I need all the space available. They also have a lower driving position that I do not like because it creates blind spots for me. The newest ones are just butt ugly ; the '90 styling was infinitely better than the latest model with its ugly grin. Bring back hidden headlights. ;^)
                  How about this news? Apple says they will have self driving cars in a few years. Probably 6-figures if the id-phone is any example. Probably sell well in Kali though.
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                  • Posted by $ Thoritsu 3 months, 3 weeks ago
                    Self-driving cars are the real next thing. EVs may happen, but are not a necessary step. This is going to revolutionize society! Automobiles provided transportation liberty. Cars were a source of freedom, focal point of the economy, and a heart beat of the US. With "liquid" local transportation, another generation will emerge. Already we see majority young people disinterested in automobile features and performance. So foreign to me, but an overwhelming change. This is going to be a seminal change. We should prepare investment, and expectations for it.

                    BTW, I'd love to build out a nice 1990's Miata, with a later turbo-6-speed drive train. I have Spartan tastes for the interior, but Dionysian tastes for the performance.
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                    • Posted by 3 months, 3 weeks ago
                      Young people are stuck inside their phones. They don't notice cars until they are struck by a self-driving one. Then they'll discover ambulance chasers.
                      That MX5 build sounds good. I still yearn for a turbo rotary, too, not a high priority though. Freedom from government meddling, thieving bankers, and corporate corruption would be pretty satisfying. ;^)
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