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  • Posted by $ blarman 1 month, 1 week ago
    The Market has been a virtual playground for twenty years. I'm glad I don't have any money in the "Wall Street Casino" because with all the derivatives and index funds and everything, no one is actually buying into anything of real value. The whole thing is a house of cards standing on one minor detail: the Fed Interest Rate. When that goes up because the US can't pay its debts, it will collapse and destroy the US economy.

    For those not familiar with national economic indicators, three of the biggest ones are 1) Housing, 2) Bonds, and 3) Stocks. Some analysts refer to this as the three-legged stool of investing. But even casual analysis of these three shows that the whole system is poised for total collapse.

    1) Housing has already collapsed once. And instead of getting rid of Fanny and Freddy, the government doubled-down, now requiring that all mortgages go to Fanny and Freddy. Add to this a housing market that is underwritten by insanely low interest rates which encourage people to buy insanely expensive real estate AND the banks being more than happy to underwrite these loans knowing they will just turn around and sell them to Fanny/Freddy and we have a hyper-inflated real estate market where the taxpayer holds all the risk.

    2) Bonds. Many bonds - especially municipal bonds - have a one year term and because they are publicly funded are a low-risk investment for seniors who need a steady income stream from their retirement portfolios. But current bond yields - due to the current interest rates being near zero - are actually negative, meaning that those who invest in them are losing money for the first time in history. This makes bond issuers such as state and local governments really happy because they can issue the bonds at or near the price of the money they are buying but yet pay off the bond holders with devalued future funds. Quite the racket if you can get it.

    One of the other side-effects of these abnormally-low interest rates is that corporate- and long-term investors are turning away from bonds because the ROI just isn't there. This pushes their investment money into...

    3) Stocks, which have become horribly over-priced as a result. Because 1) and 2) above are horribly-risky investment categories for any sane investor, where else is your money going to go to eke out even a meager gain? The Stock Market. This has resulted in a proliferation of worthless investment instruments such as index funds and other derivatives which are nothing more than a bet on the roulette wheel.

    Proof? Precious metal prices are climbing as more and more investors are beginning to hedge, pulling their money out of these valueless investment mediums and into physical commodities which have utility outside their monetary value.

    And I'll make this prediction: if Trump loses, you'll see investment bankers begin to shed these valueless investments like molting snakes as they buy commodities. I won't be surprised if because the three-legged stool has become a one-legged stool that the whole thing tips over and dumps the common American taxpayer on their backside - then leaves them the bill.

    Get ready, because its going to be a bumpy ride.
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    • Posted by 1 month, 1 week ago
      All good points, blarman.
      Additions to the first leg- real estate. The high prices are also assisting state and local governments to waste more and more money because the high prices mean higher tax revenues for poorly managed state and local governments. Commercial real estate (retail in particular) has also been hurt by the ongoing transition to online retail, and now the shut-downs have destroyed even more tenants in retail, services, restaurants, hotels, tourism. The only things preventing a collapse of real estate prices is near zero interest rates and federal government bailouts.
      Real estate pricing should be allowed to fall to free market levels, probably 50% to 80% lower than current levels. Banks should reduce mortgages by the same proportion. But the financial firms (banking cartel and Wall St) run the federal government, so there will continue to be bail outs until the entire system collapses. The cartel will own virtually everything of value.
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      • Posted by $ blarman 1 month, 1 week ago
        Hadn't thought about the property tax end of things. Great point. I know I've seen my property taxes double in the past two years because the "assessed" value of my home has more than doubled - even though I'm certainly not living in a home worth twice as much as it was two years ago. Of all the things I wish I could do in State government, eliminating the entire assessor's office is top of my list. Property tax values should be based on the purchase price of the home - end of story. That's what all your accounting works on. Government created assessed value as a total scam and the effects are to drive many people out of their homes entirely - especially those on fixed incomes.
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        • Posted by 1 month, 1 week ago
          Yes, Ad valorem taxation is based on the guaranteed inflation courtesy of the Fed. The home "owner" has an ever increasing tax bill that is never paid off. In effect, he never actually "owns" the property even when he has paid for it because the local government can seize it and auction it for unpaid taxes. I have always hated this scam almost as much as income taxation. Then the taxes are used to brainwash the children to rub salt in the wound.
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          • Posted by mccannon01 1 month, 1 week ago
            Paid off the mortgage on our house some time ago, but so what? The property and school taxes have long since outstripped the mortgage amount, which really means I don't own squat. If the Royal Rent doesn't get paid we're out on our butts. Isn't this fascism where the government pretends you own something, but you really don't.

            At least one of my Rev War ancestors must be rolling in his grave over this.
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            • Posted by 1 month, 1 week ago
              "must be rolling in his grave"
              Not to mention many paying 50% in income taxes/"payroll" taxes, plus 7% or more in local sales taxes, plus transportation taxes (fuel), plus fees(taxes) to support fatherland security, plus liquor taxes, plus licenses for operating a business, operation of vehicle, fishing, hunting, etc. Fat George's economic offenses were minuscule by comparison.
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      • Posted by $ pixelate 1 month, 1 week ago
        Yes, real estate ... and it is more than just higher valuations ... State government legislators work hard to find a way to get around tax-increase caps that have been implemented as a result of popular voter referendums. My home property tax increased by 28% this year. My agriculture land went up by 40%. This was all under the context of a new line item for the local school district. At present, over 70% of my property tax bill goes to the Schools - three line items for local and two for State. Beautiful new palaces being constructed, including a teacher's learning facility, just two miles from my home -- all built to be "sustainable and green" and all currently unoccupied due to Lockdown. Add on this the teachers demanding to continue the remote instruction sham while their paychecks (and pensions) continue to be paid and funded. I hope that the collapse comes soon. I will still be young enough to see the rebuilding on the other side.
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    • Posted by term2 1 month, 1 week ago
      If Trump loses, china wins (tariffs will be removed and more jobs will move to china again) and will double down ontaking over as the world leader. Our economy will stagnate as Biden gets rid of all the executive orders Trump enacted. Stock market will decline probably a LOT.
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      • Posted by $ Abaco 1 month, 1 week ago
        If Trump loses I'm buying put options...
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        • Posted by term2 1 month, 1 week ago
          Its going to be a quick decline at first and then a slow decline in our economy for years to come
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          • Posted by $ blarman 1 month, 1 week ago
            I'll bet on a slow decline for the first month, then an exponential increase in that decline until the system destroys itself. It won't last years - it will be over in a month once it jumps off that cliff.
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            • Posted by term2 1 month, 1 week ago
              I think there will be quick drop upon news of biden winning. THAT might takes several months in itself, as all those hand written ballors are painfully analyzed and counted
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              • Posted by $ blarman 1 month, 1 week ago
                Certainly possible. There was a quick uptick on news of Trump's win.
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                • Posted by term2 1 month, 1 week ago
                  Mail in ballots will be a disaster. I remember the gore vs bush election with all the recounts and hand viewing of hanging chads. Imagine hand filled out mail in ballots with different colors of ink on ball point pens, or pencils. People filling in the boxes, using check marks, or partial swipes, and how to interpret those....
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                  • Posted by DrZarkov99 1 month, 1 week ago
                    I could see legal action against ballots discarded because the voter used the wrong color ink or a pencil, put an X instead of filling in the box, forgot to sign, or signed in the wrong place for an absentee ballot. That alone could take most of the following year to resolve, if allowed, and I'll bet if Trump is the apparent winner, it will happen.
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                    • Posted by term2 1 month, 1 week ago
                      Forget the idea the election will be decided election night or even in the next few months. Trying to decipher how 100 million people indicate their choices will be a nightmare- making bush/gore a walk in the park
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  • Posted by term2 1 month, 1 week ago
    Things are somewhat different now. At this time, the drop in activity is self induced and could be reversed pretty much instantly by removing the restrictions. If the restrictions are kept on too long, irreversible damage could be done to the economy however.
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  • Posted by evlwhtguy 1 month, 1 week ago
    The difference between then and now is that the "Depression" we are now in is artificial. As soon at the government gets its foot off our necks....it will turn around....unless we get Democrats.....then the chart might look exactly the same.
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  • Posted by GaryL 1 month, 1 week ago
    This is all completely liquid! If you had the money to do a 12 month experiment in investing you might get the surprise of your life.
    $50K to buy 5 acres of buildable land.
    $50K to your savings account.
    $50K to cash in your safe.
    $50K invested smartly* in the stock market.
    $50K to buy 25 ounces of metal @$1950/.
    At the end of this 12 month experiment you will have at least $150K of this money that did not earn squat. The other $100K just might do real well and show some growth. I play around on my own in the market and do just a little OK. My savings accounts do great for the bank but nothing for me. My property is a loss loser because of the taxes. I don't own much gold or silver. Any cash in a safe is not much better than money in savings. We have some money in a 401K and much to my surprise it has performed ridiculously well throughout this entire pandemic because it is in diversified funds and by much smarter investors than me. The fear we should all feel is this could all go up in smoke in a flash. The wall street casino is a very dangerous place but I don't honestly see any safe havens out here for excess money any of us might have.
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    • Posted by CaptainKirk 1 month, 1 week ago
      1) Cash in your safe CANNOT be used to BAIL-IN banks
      2) All Deposits are now considered the BANKS money, no longer YOUR money, and you are BEHIND the Fed and their other debts, even if NEWER than your deposit.
      3) LAND is NEVER considered liquid IMHO... If lending dies, then it's only "completely liquid" if you will sell at ANY offer... Otherwise you are in a waiting game for a buyer!
      4) Smart Investing... The goal almost NOBODY can achieve in these markets...
      5) The market is being propped up, as BIG Players were BAILED OUT of Losing Positions. Government Assisted Income Inequality is what Trump was talking about.

      It is an interesting theory. The challenge for most people is at the end of 12 months, they will hold on to their losers, sell their winners, and watch the losers keep losing.

      Did you consider any BlockChain/Coin investments?

      But I completely agree with the diversified approach. I have a rental property (chugging along, but empty for a few months because of Covid), Stock Market (Down 10% which is about 1% more than the profits I was carrying). Some precious stuff, etc. And Zero Debts so I am not paying interest. ALWAYS the best investment in my opinion. And some BlockChain which is down 4%...

      I see real estate as another inflation hedge. Although I went looking at another rental property... NOPE. The prices are way up! And I don't want to be too heavy in any one investment...
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      • Posted by GaryL 1 month, 1 week ago
        I considered all the options! What turned my stomach was the putrid amount of interest earned each year on savings sitting in the banks for their profiteering. I jumped into the markets, maxed out the 401K and held onto my coinage. Even my very worst pick is doing far better than the money we had idling in bank savings accounts. Risk is certainly present in all financial transactions. Increases in land values are sucked up by the increases in yearly taxes here in NY and a complete drag on the investment itself.
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  • Posted by 1 month, 1 week ago
    One might wonder how the graph maker computed the left hand side y-axis scale.
    Looks to need a bit wider range of values to me.
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    • Posted by CaptainKirk 1 month, 1 week ago
      Actually, for the purposes of comparison, you can usually scale the overlayed graph, and you do.

      It's about the ability to overlay the two, even if scaled, to see that we are in a similar environment.

      Stock markets are a measure of EMOTION...

      Stock prices rise for 2 reasons. Bulls chasing it up (think 1990s), and PURE INFLATION of the currency.

      When your currency is being inflated, stocks serve as an inflation hedge, because SO MUCH of the money has to be put somewhere to hedge the inflation of holding cash.

      Meanwhile, the big bankers hold down the price of Gold with crazy shorts while the market is not open, to HIDE the inflation... But it only works until investors remove their STOPS, and keep buying gold/silver regardless, because they KNOW the inflation is being hidden.

      Hence the recent rise in the precious metals. Another RIGGED market...

      And that is the real problem. ALL of the markets are rigged.
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      • Posted by 1 month, 1 week ago
        The stops were run in the AU/AG markets yesterday. Wall St lives on using volatility to steal from investors.

        Regarding the scaling...
        The way the chart is scaled seems to predict the low for the current market at 16,000 if it follows the depression DOW. The depression DOW pulled back about 80% from the yellow dotted line to the low, and the chart equates that to a 45% pullback today. It's utter speculation.
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        • Posted by CaptainKirk 1 month, 1 week ago
          It always is. My read on the markets are that the "Emotional Response" is measured by the market.

          The funniest LIE is that the market looks ahead 6 months. Utter BS! Otherwise we would not need daily reporting and have 5 minute swings based on "new" information.

          Regardless... This is a DIFFERENT time. There was no double bottom formed here. We did a Vee back up pretty quickly. I had money waiting for a second pullback... We
          never got one... Too bad for me... I missed it.

          Since the market is Rigged via the Plunge Protection Team... If you don't need the money for 10+ years, you can just scale in long. Maybe hedge in some situations. In the short term, anything can happen!

          But THIS is different than the Market Crash with the great depression. The bankers exited the stock market 3-6 months before the crash.
          Then ALL the banks effectively did Margin Calls, kinda forcing the crash. The ruined liquidity. And people were levered 10:1... They quickly lost everything, and the MOOD
          of the country went sour. Very hard to recover from that.

          In this case, we had a Government Taking... Triggering this. Then a TON of liquidity thrown at the markets... The mood is NOT sour... And I truly believe that before the election, we will be seeing more and more states lift restrictions... (mostly red states, of course).

          The market will NOT drop 80% until the bankers have exited their positions! They will help keep the ponzi scheme going until 80% of the households are in the market.
          That might be starting to happen... Just my opinion...

          Thanks for sharing!
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  • Posted by $ prof611 1 month, 1 week ago
    Nice-looking graph, but the Title, and the Axes have no labels, so it could be anything!
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    • Posted by 1 month, 1 week ago
      Well the Y-axis labels are color coded to the title and the line colors.
      DOW then is red, DOW now is blue.
      The NOW dates are cut off though, so that is tough to discern. The yellow vertical line appears to be most recent data on the present timeline.
      (I didn't create it, and it is not visible where I recall finding it. )
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