Hold on to Yer Hats

Posted by $ Abaco 9 months, 4 weeks ago to Economics
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I check the market and glance at sources like Marketwatch each morning. Something dawned on me. As I thought would happen...The news is just starting to hint that banks (via loans to small business) are going to take a beating as small business close as a result of the current events. I've been watching real estate and don't see much going on there yet, in terms of change. But, if my guess is right that we'll be in this state of "stay home" for at least a couple years the effects COVID-19 will have on our economy are going to be severe. Worse than the great recession. The consumer framework was in tact to get us through that, at least. People were going out and picking up pizzas, not yelling at each other at the store, etc.

Now, there's talk of the feds just sending out a bunch of checks (funny how I won't get any of that....always goes that way) of what is our money to start with. Also talk of nationalizing Boeing. I'm an old Boeing guy and this makes me bristle. The answers were never to reduce regulations and taxes, it seems. Instead it was increasing water temps in the frog pot and unprecedented federal debt combined with artificially aggressive interest rates. Now the economy has that "painted into a corner" feel to it for me.

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  • Posted by exceller 9 months, 4 weeks ago
    "But, if my guess is right that we'll be in this state of "stay home" for at least a couple years …"

    That's not going to happen, Abaco.

    One month more max.

    The sending out of checks is in limbo, thanks to Piglosi and Schumer. They want to add pork to the bill that has nothing to do with the virus, like climate protection and other crap.

    I trust McConnell and Trump that they won't go for it. Where it comes to dishonesty in the name of gaining power, count on the Dems.
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  • Posted by freedomforall 9 months, 4 weeks ago
    I agree the economy is in for a rough time, Abaco. It was teetering on the edge before COVID19, imo.
    For example, retail has been shrinking for years; many malls that were premiere locations a few years ago were half empty when I visited last Christmas in Atlanta. That was during the busiest time of the year.
    Commercial real estate will be crushed by this. Many people who are now working from home may not be going back to an office once it is clear that they can be trusted to work from home. The 2008-2009 great recession was a walk in the park compared to this.
    Malls and office complexes are going to be empty for decades, imo.
    If I recall, the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index was 95% lower during the '08 recession compared to today. I won't be surprised if it loses 95% of its value again.
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