Is a bond run in the near future?
We know interest rates are going to rise. They are being artificially manipulated right now in order to prop up the massive spending of the government. When they do rise, bond-holders will take it in the shorts. And it isn't as if there is a safer investment vehicle in real estate (currently in a false run) or stocks (which are also over-priced).
If I had any money to invest, it wouldn't be in stocks OR bonds, and not in real estate either. Any kind of fiat-based investment is nearly useless in the kind of inflation of I expect to hit the US economy with in the next 5 years.
If I had any money to invest, it wouldn't be in stocks OR bonds, and not in real estate either. Any kind of fiat-based investment is nearly useless in the kind of inflation of I expect to hit the US economy with in the next 5 years.
They are always artificially manipulated.
I feel like you took my words form another post or independently came to exact same opinion that I have.
We are in a major expansion cycle. This is the time to pay down debt in a big way. If we were smart we'd put off politics for another time, cut spending on everything just a little, including Military, Medicaid / PPACA subsidies, dept of justice, education, and then raise taxes just a little. The changes would be minor. We could still engage in histrionics about how taxes, PPACA, the military/prison-industiral-complex, or whatever policies you hate are destroying freedom on earth forever. But a tiny across-the-board change makes the problem disappear.
That would cause a lot of histrionics about favorite programs (Military, PPACA, education, prisons, SBIR/STTR) being cut or an extra 2% coming out of your paycheck, but the problem would melt away.
This plan never happens b/c politicians sanctimoniously say "we just can't afford [insert large spending they never wanted in the first place] but balk at the notion of cutting their favorite program."
That being said, I believe that there are plenty of opportunities to trim wasteful expense from government without gutting things entirely.
Start with the Simpson-Bowles commission that recommended hundreds of millions in savings just by shutting down redundant bureaucracies. Add to that an increase in permitting for energy production - which the federal government then receives royalties from. Next, start cutting some of the bogus welfare programs like school lunches in the summer. Cut back foreign aid to governments hostile to us or misusing funds (read ALL of Africa). I think there is room for judicious cuts in the military that do not jeopardize our sovereignty, and that comes based on personal conversations with retired personnel, including an Air Force Colonel. Next, employ those who don't have jobs to finish building the border fence with Mexico. Kill two birds with one stone. Stop all the wasteful purchases of ammunition for the IRS, BLM, and other government agencies NOT tasked with law enforcement.
I think there are PLENTY of ways the government can cut back that don't jeopardize our nation. The problem is that those who are in charge aren't going to vote to decrease their power base willingly.
I wish the goal of balancing the budget were divorced from debating the merits of the programs.
http://www.gopusa.com/news/2014/07/10/go...
A billion here, a billion there and pretty soon we're talking real money.
WHAT AM I SAYING? We're already talking REAL money... ;)
Inflation + 2 = target 10year treasury rate
Have fun...
I don't think there's such thing as fiat-based investments. Investments are the things that generate value, usually in the form of products or services. Those don't exist by fiat. Their value is based on future earnings, which is a function of how well they can produce value for customers.
Regarding what to invest in, I say invest in what you know, in things that you fully understand.
I consider none of this investing by fiat. It's all based on what things you think people will want in the future and how well a business provides people what they want.