A short course in counter-terror theory

Posted by $ jdg 8 years, 5 months ago to Politics
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Strategic thinking by a friend whom I consider expert.


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  • Posted by $ MichaelAarethun 8 years, 5 months ago
    Excellent post as it brings the modern day (mid fifties to 911) information up to date. I would add the following.

    Age old definiiton 1. Purpose of Terrorism is to Terrorize.

    AOD 2. There is no such thing as innocent bystanders.

    AOD3 They aren't criminal acts they are revolutionary acts such as 'expropriation' instead of 'bank robberies.'

    The modern day political terrorists EXCEPT the Islamic version follow a strategy (C. Marighella) designed to allow a small, ill equipped, under funded and initially not popular movement to take on a vastly superior opponent especially in countries with many civil liberties and freedoms.

    This is the circle or cycle of repression. But it works with modifications for other sorts of terrorists as well. One group has the motto never let a good crisis go to waste. That's a government that switches roles and wishes to implement strict controls and dump civil liberties. Another is the Islamics who add a dimension of expecting to be killed or killing themselves as a tactic.

    The basic cycle follows a rule that says never repeat the same target, tactic, or technique.

    Group T for example robs a bank and doesn't kill anyone then distributes the money in a poor neighborhood. Next time it's a supermarket type store again distributing the food.. In an affluent neighbor hood it's a bomb in any situation where it will produce mass casualties. Or perhaps high jacking an aircraft or next maybe shipping a parcel on a bus. Each act is followed up by telephoned or emailed or snail mailed threats or just items such as crop duster and anthrax formulas left lying around.

    The government of course reacts normally as stated treating it as a criminal activity. First time around....not much change. Second time the citizens start yelling for protection. Third time they demand it. Fourth time they not knowing when or where or how the fifth time will occur the get real incensed at the government not the terrorists who might be busy giving away food at the supermarket for a change of pace..

    The government each time says ok fine but we'll have to tighten up on some civil liberties.and each time that screw gets tightened more and more. Road side stops, random searches, surveillance of communications, control of certain commodities such as weapons, complete body searches before boarding aircraft except aircraft are not targeted anymore. It's a city bus next time.

    The goal is shifting blame from the terrorist group and their political agenda to blaming the government for their new police state posture. Until ideally they are voted out and a more friendly group of politicians voted in.

    A government in the bad guy role takes advantage of all opportunities to become the new police state.

    Jihadist type is causing mass fear on the one side, a willingness to give up freedoms and civil rights on the other, and a defeatist attitude throughout the country which also has a vocal element screaming about methods such as profiling and of course an all to willing media to help out..

    It's a never ending cycle with no predictability. That's on purpose except for the random whackos but that helps anyway.

    How, for example do you feel about going to the high school basketball game - remember the movie Carrie?

    Some bring items in country. but that's mostly a diversion as is the emphasis on weapons control. There isn't much that cannot be puchased and made locally. Funny part is most of that was not well known until one of our Presidents made it readily available byi mass downgrading of security levels - which is the probable source of McVeigh's device. Compliments of the US Government Printing Office and still available today by downloading.

    As far as organization goes most won't last and for the same reasons criminal organizations won't last. Really bad security. But if an additional T is added to Target, Technique, Tactics, we'll call it Team and each team is completely independent it makes it really tough for the good guys especially if they are a. funded b. equipped and c. have little or no contact with the other groups.

    On the other hand as we've seen their best protection is PC.

    How to protect yourself and your family...I'm sure more posts will follow but the bad news is there is no good news if the assailants are well trained and choose targets and techniques as mentioned above. Always randomly different.

    Right now there is one prime target coming up that is being prepared for. Not the inauguration although that is for sure on the list but the State of The Union Address. Nothing will be spared to ensure security when the bulk of government is in one room.

    Not so for your high school basketball game...

    The dangers are giving up too much in the way of freedoms and rights in trade for a very low level of protection and as we've seen might take four or five decades to get back AND ham stringing the effort to identify an interdict. The sure way on that is cut the head off the snake. Identify, locate, neutralize the leadership AND its support mechanisms.

    Not by spinning tires and pissing off the population which is a sure sign of either impotence and inability or a tacit admission of wanting the situation to continue for other reasons. Either way the terrorist leadership will make it look as negative as possible and with the current media posture that is soooooooooooooo easy.

    The start point is...it's here we're stuck with the problem. That should drive your selection come voting day except....heh heh heh there really isn't a good candidate for this sort of thing. Nor for Congress from what I've seen. Might want to think that one through one more time....
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