The Bureaucratic Singularity: when technology develops faster than governmental control.
Note: The image at the link summarizes this post.
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If government regulation grows arithmetically, while technology grows exponentially, there reaches a point where innovation happens faster than the government can control it. This is the inflection point of The Bureaucratic Singularity.
DarkWeb, Bitcoin/blockchain, Arab Climate Change, Anonymous, AirBnB, Uber, etc. I submit we are at the inflection point - now.
Existence Exists. Reality. Our friend. And, no respecter of persons or weakness.
Specialization creates efficiencies, which drive competition and innovation - exponentially - changing the competitive landscape of society. Wealth, intelligence, and skill begets more wealth, intelligence, and skill.
Predictable Result A. The opportunities/speed to benefit society and (in the process) create wealth also grow exponentially (Google, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, etc.), with producers on the cutting edge gaining lion's shares of larger pies.
Predictable Result B: Consumers gain larger absolute slices but smaller relative slices. Successful Entrepreneurs move from Millionaires to Billionaires, while the average joe moves from plays to Netflix, telegraph to iPhones, libraries to the Internet. 5% on 100 million is 5 million. 50% of 100 thousand is 50 thousand. The size of the relative gap between rich and poor is accelerating even as the poor get richer in absolute terms.
Predictable Result C: Competitors (and their employees) lose their place at the table, unless they can adopt/adapt/innovate in pace with the cutting edge. For them, cutting edge is bleeding edge. This displacement is not trivial, and requires increasing investment by companies and individuals in (self) development, without certainty of where to invest.
Predictable Result D: Populist rhetoric/media becomes increasingly effective at portraying disparity. Envy and anger at disparity grows, leading to increased government attempts/regulation to "correct" this "imbalance." Democrat/Republican alike succumb to this pressure. Lobbying intensifies as the Beltway Parasites feed on the frenzy. Government interference in economy causes increasing systemic failures.
Suggestions:
1. Prepare yourself to surf this wave. Make sure you are on the cutting edge, not the bleeding edge.
2. Teach yourself to focus on and promote absolute wealth, not relative wealth.
3. Promote positive adaptations to the rapid changes, using profit as a slipstream to fund the promotion in an upward spiral.
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If government regulation grows arithmetically, while technology grows exponentially, there reaches a point where innovation happens faster than the government can control it. This is the inflection point of The Bureaucratic Singularity.
DarkWeb, Bitcoin/blockchain, Arab Climate Change, Anonymous, AirBnB, Uber, etc. I submit we are at the inflection point - now.
Existence Exists. Reality. Our friend. And, no respecter of persons or weakness.
Specialization creates efficiencies, which drive competition and innovation - exponentially - changing the competitive landscape of society. Wealth, intelligence, and skill begets more wealth, intelligence, and skill.
Predictable Result A. The opportunities/speed to benefit society and (in the process) create wealth also grow exponentially (Google, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, etc.), with producers on the cutting edge gaining lion's shares of larger pies.
Predictable Result B: Consumers gain larger absolute slices but smaller relative slices. Successful Entrepreneurs move from Millionaires to Billionaires, while the average joe moves from plays to Netflix, telegraph to iPhones, libraries to the Internet. 5% on 100 million is 5 million. 50% of 100 thousand is 50 thousand. The size of the relative gap between rich and poor is accelerating even as the poor get richer in absolute terms.
Predictable Result C: Competitors (and their employees) lose their place at the table, unless they can adopt/adapt/innovate in pace with the cutting edge. For them, cutting edge is bleeding edge. This displacement is not trivial, and requires increasing investment by companies and individuals in (self) development, without certainty of where to invest.
Predictable Result D: Populist rhetoric/media becomes increasingly effective at portraying disparity. Envy and anger at disparity grows, leading to increased government attempts/regulation to "correct" this "imbalance." Democrat/Republican alike succumb to this pressure. Lobbying intensifies as the Beltway Parasites feed on the frenzy. Government interference in economy causes increasing systemic failures.
Suggestions:
1. Prepare yourself to surf this wave. Make sure you are on the cutting edge, not the bleeding edge.
2. Teach yourself to focus on and promote absolute wealth, not relative wealth.
3. Promote positive adaptations to the rapid changes, using profit as a slipstream to fund the promotion in an upward spiral.
I know - It is an optimistic idea, but I am voting for it anyway!
The government quickly lost or refused control and Gates commented on that as well.
Some of the government faults were stealing designs and patented materials that had been submitted for purchase considerations and refused then later claimed to have been developed by the government. One was the bolt action of the Springfield Rifle of WWI fame (Mauser received payment some years later by order of the Supreme Court) and a combined load bearing harness and back pack system where every part had at least three uses. the LoCo Pack designed, manufacrtured, and sold around the world including private sales to US military personnel but not to the US Government. The blame there fell on Picatinny Arsenal. Never did find or hear about the outcome...maybe a a deal was struck .....However the Lo and Co came from the son of the owner of Lowe Alpine systems and Tom Cook a former US Special Forces trooper and the factory was in Emoryville, CA.
One of the hugely funny results was the internet scandal when VP Gore claimed to have invented it. He promptly received a man of he year award from the USA porn industry. Still an uncontrolled and very lucrative part, from all accounts, of that field of business endeavor.
One particular area was attacked by our own federal law enforcement,, one studio was shut down and everything they produced is still available on the net but now free of charge while the business went to other 'studios.' Zero arrests, zero cooperation but 100 percent. success claimed.
In summation let's hear a standing Oh Shit for Al Gore..Porn's man of the year and probably by now a life time achievement awardee. He did something right after all - according to some.
Jan
My point in this thread is that as soon as technology gives us a place that has protected borders (via distance or force fields, as in the Gulch) and is self-sufficient, we have independence. This is why technology can determine culture.
Jan
Government intervention is both blunt and cronyist.
It's attempts to catch up with technology will be industry changing in terms of what is allowed and what is incentivized. These interventions will cause profound shifts in the industries affected (and those that are dependent on them) AWAY from optimal.
In fast growing industries, this will cause displacement and shortages. Everything that is dependent on these industries will be affected by the shortages. The solutions that private industries come up with to deal with this and to take advantages of the perverse incentives will ripple, interfering with other critical products/services.
The bigger/faster growing the industry, the more dependencies of that industry, the bigger the problems.
This will combine with additional intervention and create failures of entire systems.
Think healthcare. As one piece falls, the next piece gets weak, which causes more out of control spending, which causes prices to go up, which changes consumer behavior, which requires more intervention etc.
make sense?
Used to spend a lot of time around Wickenburg.
Which we appear to be witnessing.
I'm confused, though, if gov't grows slower than technology, how in Result D does it cause systemic failures?
BTW, I agree completely that technology is simultaneously democratizing information and indirectly leading to envy and anger. I'm not clear what the outcome will be. I see this as a crossroads where it could break either for or against liberty.
Reason requires a reason to use it. :-)
http:12z.us/purpose.jpg
Question - for fun. Is "filtrate" somehow different than "justice" or "mercy" in being a construct of intelligence? (IOE).
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