Early Warning Signs of Global Fiscal Problems?
Apologies for all the ads - focus on the content right down the middle of the article. These are 20 warning signs throughout the world of economic bellweathers - and few even include the US!
Your thoughts: is the world about to face its first global depression?
Your thoughts: is the world about to face its first global depression?
Hang on, its going to be a bumpy ride.
http://baexpats.org/topic/28948-argentin...
PS: Argentines are used to "bumpy" rides and no one I know here seems to be terribly worried.
If I still lived in the USA I would be very, very concerned.
I absolutely know you are right. This is going to happen. The question is what to do about it?
The Story of Atlas Shrugged was about a time such as we see these evolving into under a totalitarian government. Yes. This very well may be the doorway we see at the end of the garden path we are strolling down. The door is two, perhaps three steps away - those days and those men are upon us - like Atlas, all WE can do is to shrug.
As I said, it's going to be a bumpy ride.
The other problem is the growing debt and its drag on tax funds. What we take for granted right now is that the only reason we can afford the debt we already have is absurdly low interest rates and the games the Fed is playing. If interest rates rise a few points, suddenly our obligations to debt service start crowding out other government services. This is a snowball with only one destination.
I wouldn't put any money in the stock market except as short sales or calls. The reason so much money is going there is because bond rates don't even cover inflation and the housing market is still on eggshells - most mortgage holders are still holding large quantities of toxic mortgages. They just can't dump them all on the market at the same time without it collapsing. Investors have no place to put their money, because they can't reinvest in their businesses due to the uncertainties involved with the ACA.
And have you seen the estimated crop reports for this year? Many areas of the nation - including California - are facing serious water shortfalls, meaning shorter growing seasons and less fruit.
Do I know what can be done about it? Sure, but none of it would pass Congress or the President right now.
My advice: buckle up - it's going to be a bumpy ride. And when the US falters, the whole world is going to feel the effects.
Fiscal policy - too much borrowing which will need to be repaid. When it is, it will suck up most expenditures.
I could also have included monetary policy, which is going to cause rampant inflation.
you can call yourself a apple but if you are yellow colored, sour to the taste and stringy, I'd say that you might be a lemon. Choosing to call yourself a apple will not change your character.
Traditional conservatives support liberty for economic issues, but limitations on social issues.
Traditional liberals support liberty for social issues and limitations on economic issues.
True libertarians believe in liberty for both social as well as economic issues.
Liberals believe in the "now": policies that feel good at the moment regardless of their long-term ramifications. Liberals embrace choices emphasizing the moment or about how they can gain control over others. Liberals are apt to flit from fad to fad.
Conservatives emphasize policies that are ultra-long term - many of them faith-based - based on traditional values. Conservatives eschew principles that sacrifice long-term gains for short-term ones. Conservatives avoid fads to focus on principle.
Libertarians are kind of a mix of the two. Their policies are predominantly founded based on logic, but that logic is constrained to personal experience, thus they tend to embrace conservative fiscal policies and liberal social policies. This is why they don't get along well politically with either of the two major parties. (Disclaimer: Most Republicans are no longer conservative and have drifted very Libertarian, while Democrats have drifted far Left.)
If you want to talk about it in terms of freedom, Liberals believe you make your own freedom, Libertarians prioritize the freedom of the mind, and Conservatives focus on the freedom of the soul.
Yes, I can confirm that the Mad-town Wisconsin is doing quite nicely. Mostly on the backs of the rest of the state - either government, lobbyists, or the university. Every time I go there to visit my daughters, the restaurants are packed. No recession there.
Madison is still not expensive compared to major metro areas.
We did inclusionary zoning (IZ) for a few years with mixed results. We're put nice low-income housing just a few blocks walk from where I live in Hill Farms. From what I've seen it seems to be working.
Madison is a pretty amazing place to live. My wife and I both spent time away and before we met chose to live within a couple miles of where we lived as kids.
The rest of the state feels like dairy farms and paper mills are paying for biotech research. That's partly true, but there's more money today in technology. It's not like if gov't stopped funding the UW of a sudden paper mills and mining would be amazing generators of wealth.
I agree that Dane County, and maybe the so-called Madison region, should pay more of its own way. Dairy farms can pay their own way too.
It would be nice, but obviously impossible, if Madison could license the world Madison to businesses in Middleton, Verona, Fitchburg, Monona, McFarlands, and Waunakee that say they're in Madison. :)
I have seen from personal experience people who would work two jobs to stay above the poverty line get < 40hr/wk State jobs that provide a middle-class lifestyle. It makes it an amazing place to live, but that part is unfair to the rest of the state.
No one can deny that the economic signs (we have $100 TRILLION in outstanding liabilities and added $600+ billion just this year - and Obamacare hasn't even gotten going yet!) point to a dangerous and total collapse of the economic system of the US without big structural changes, and that this will likely lead to catastrophic consequences around the globe. We remain optimistic in the ideals of America - free trade, etc. - but we are extremely pessimistic that those in control of the ship right now will make the necessary course corrections because they show no inclination to even reasonably consider the matter.
I would love to be optimistic about the fate of our nation, but I can not be optimistic about that with our current leadership. And if we survive the next three years without a major fiscal collapse AND new leadership takes over, we'll see then if the situation has changed.
I categorically deny the debt and deficit point to a total collapse of the economic system. Unless GDP keeps rising and politicians make tough decisions, we may see inflation. But we're no where near collapse. The engine is all those people out here with good ideas and knowledge and enthusiasm to serve other people by producing goods/services.
"I would love to be optimistic about the fate of our nation, but I can not be optimistic about that with our current leadership"
This is my biggest concern about the US. I'm NOT concerned about fiscal collapse in the next few years. I am very concerned that our system more-and-more depends on having good leadership. We do need good leaders, but the system must be robust enough not to depend on good people b/c every once in a while you get bad leadership. I'm deeply concerned about this on the scale of decades.
If I had to pick someone to rule by exec decree with power to target Americans to kill, I might pick President Obama, BUT I in no way want to pick any person to have that power. The president isn't even empowered to declare war. The Constitution wasn't intended for the gov't to run a huge social safety net, domestic "anti-terror", "anti-drug" police state, or a vast empire. I really want to see that rolled back. democratic rule is fragile. We can become less democratic over decades and hardly notice it. I'm optimistic even about these problems; the short-term economic collapse fear isn't even on my radar.
We both hope I'm right about that and you're wrong. We'll know in three years.
What worries me even more, however, is the level of debt compared to GDP. With current interest rates around a paltry 1%, we are ONLY paying >$400 BILLION in debt service annually. What happens WHEN the interest rates rise? Where do we get the extra money to pay for this when we are ALSO running a $600 BILLION deficit? And that's only half as bad as the prior four deficits which added an average of $1.3 TRILLION to the deficit per year? And there is no sign that this is going to let up.
What is easy to overlook is that the interest rates also mean loads of cheap money for business right now. They will be in the same boat as our government when interest rates rise.
What will cause them to rise? The only reason they are as low as they are is because of - government control! The Fed's quantitative easing policies are keeping them artificially low in order to finance the debt, but even the Fed has agreed that this policy can not continue indefinitely. As they draw QE down, interest rates will go back up as the "easy money" dries up.
I wish things were not so dire. I haven't even touched on the housing market full of toxic mortgages or the overinflated stock prices or the personal debt loads of the common American. But the prevalence of all these and their continued neglect (and even furtherance in many cases) greatly concerns me. Our ship is being guided by a blind helmsman who is busy distributing liquor to the oarsmen while trying to persuade the passengers to stay in their cabins and not look out the portholes at the raging seas. And we can't really abandon ship.