The Predictability of Chaos
Robin Craig writing for the Savvy Street on Chaos Theory. Enjoy
“And now chaos theory proves that unpredictability is built into our daily lives. It is as mundane as the rainstorm we cannot predict. And so the grand vision of science, hundreds of years old – the dream of total control – has died, in our century. And with it much of the justification, the rationale for science to do what it does. And for us to listen to it. Science has always said that it may not know everything now but it will know, eventually. But now we see that isn’t true. It is an idle boast. As foolish, and as misguided, as the child who jumps off a building because he believes he can fly.” (Michael Crichton, Jurassic Park).
“And now chaos theory proves that unpredictability is built into our daily lives. It is as mundane as the rainstorm we cannot predict. And so the grand vision of science, hundreds of years old – the dream of total control – has died, in our century. And with it much of the justification, the rationale for science to do what it does. And for us to listen to it. Science has always said that it may not know everything now but it will know, eventually. But now we see that isn’t true. It is an idle boast. As foolish, and as misguided, as the child who jumps off a building because he believes he can fly.” (Michael Crichton, Jurassic Park).
Since our electronics can't instantly change from "no volts" to "some volts", it is an "analog" of that step-function behavior, hence the term (analog: "relating to or using signals or information represented by a continuously variable physical quantity such as spatial position or voltage").
On a less serious note, I have indicated to the Gulch that when I'm questioned about my religion, I profess to worship Eris, the Greek goddess of chaos. We use the yin-yang symbol and call it the Holy Chao. I was an elaborate joke. Perhaps I should take it more seriously.
The car was all set up by his assistant and Murphy drove it 200+ miles an hour, coming back with bloodied eyes from the g-forces. That's when the assistant told him he'd accidentally set all the switches the wrong way.
There is nothing about Chaos Theory that demonstrates first principles do not hold. It simply tries to provide an understanding when the data to calculate from first principles is too vast or otherwise untenable.
The assertion that Chaos Theory proves things are unknowable is as foolish as asserting the same from statistics in throwing dice.
What is an issue, and is not contradicted by the article, is that when systems have significant feedback effects, relatively small differences in the data at the beginning can make large differences in the results.
Since there are practical limits to measuring all the possible inputs into something as complex as weather that means that there is probably some limitation on how far in advance we will be able to predict.
That doesn't mean that we can't use science to predict what is going to happen. It probably means that Hari Seldon will probably not be able to use psychohistory to predict human society's actions for centuries in the future -- even without the mule.
My husband, John, said: they don't take into account the amount of spontaneous chaos that occurs in most social organizations.
But somehow you know about the Bilderbergers, and UN Agenda 21 - and wasn't JFK supposed to have crossed the Mafia too?
I'm not saying there no groups pushing their own agendas and using the hand of the govt to do that. I'm saying it's really hard to keep that stuff truly secret and to keep everyone in the group in line towards one goal. That's not how most organizations work. Information gets out; people become disenchanted and tattle.
Humans want to make sense out of the chaos of social action and they'll find patterns everywhere; that's why we see faces in clouds. These theories fall prey to confirmation bias.
Besides, are these nefarious govt actors you're referring to somehow hugely more competent than the boobs that run our govt every day?
Unfortunately,some of these people are even scientists (Copenhagen interpretation of quantum mechanics) and it also shows how many people have fallen for Karl Popper's nonsense.
They have been saying that about the weather in New England, long before the west was settled ;)