Is 2022 The Year of Breakdown?
Posted by freedomforall 2 years, 10 months ago to Technology
Excerpt:
"If we look at the fragility and instability of essential systems, it's clear that 2022 will be the year of breakdown. Let's start by reviewing how systems break down, a process I've simplified into the graphic below.
1. Regardless of whether it was planned or not, all systems are optimized to process specific inputs to generate specific outputs. Each system is pared down to maximize efficiency as the means to maximize profits. This efficiency in service of maximizing profits requires trade-offs that only become visible when some key part of the system fails.
The system that ships containers around the world offers a useful example. Shipping containers revolutionized shipping and reduced costs by commoditizing containers (all standard sizes), container ships (specifically designed to carry thousands of containers and container ports with specifically designed cranes, docks and truck lanes / queueing.
It's possible to load a container on some other craft with a jury-rigged crane, but the efficiency of that is essentially a fraction of the optimized system: the jury-rigged crane will only be able to load a handful of containers, the ship will only be able to carry a few containers, and the likelihood of the containers shifting increases.
The infrastructure and labor are both highly specialized. Calling out the National Guard to speed up container offloading is a useless gesture unless the Guard can deliver more cranes and experienced operators.
The greater the optimization, the greater the fragility as the breaking of any one link brings the entire system to a halt. Throwing in equipment and labor that the system isn't designed to use will fail.
Virtually every essential system has been stripped of redundancy, resilience, reserves and adaptability as the means to fully optimize inputs, processes and outputs. The system works well if every link in the dependency chain is working perfectly. Should one link go down, the entire system goes down."
"If we look at the fragility and instability of essential systems, it's clear that 2022 will be the year of breakdown. Let's start by reviewing how systems break down, a process I've simplified into the graphic below.
1. Regardless of whether it was planned or not, all systems are optimized to process specific inputs to generate specific outputs. Each system is pared down to maximize efficiency as the means to maximize profits. This efficiency in service of maximizing profits requires trade-offs that only become visible when some key part of the system fails.
The system that ships containers around the world offers a useful example. Shipping containers revolutionized shipping and reduced costs by commoditizing containers (all standard sizes), container ships (specifically designed to carry thousands of containers and container ports with specifically designed cranes, docks and truck lanes / queueing.
It's possible to load a container on some other craft with a jury-rigged crane, but the efficiency of that is essentially a fraction of the optimized system: the jury-rigged crane will only be able to load a handful of containers, the ship will only be able to carry a few containers, and the likelihood of the containers shifting increases.
The infrastructure and labor are both highly specialized. Calling out the National Guard to speed up container offloading is a useless gesture unless the Guard can deliver more cranes and experienced operators.
The greater the optimization, the greater the fragility as the breaking of any one link brings the entire system to a halt. Throwing in equipment and labor that the system isn't designed to use will fail.
Virtually every essential system has been stripped of redundancy, resilience, reserves and adaptability as the means to fully optimize inputs, processes and outputs. The system works well if every link in the dependency chain is working perfectly. Should one link go down, the entire system goes down."
add in unconstitutional and senseless restrictions on We the People
the pot has been locked down
at some point the cover will blow off
The myth of “overrun” hospitals is also a nice little piece of propaganda. The “system” is designed to operate at 80%-90% capacity. That’s the sweet spot for profit. So an additional 10% in the grand scheme of things is really not that unusual. But now the media has to call attention to it to drive the desired narrative.
Oh, right. They ARE.
It's revolting.
diminishing returns
A break in one supply or service chain upsets the whole enchilada and it spreads outwards to many other areas until new supply and service chains are re-established. Biden is STUPID to upset the supply chains and get government involved to change things even more.
Requiring vaccination on a schedule is a great way to break a labor supply chain and force companies to try and hire people to replace ones it had to fire for not getting vaccinated.
Unleashing inflation is a great way to cut economic real output as people decide NOT to spend so much money. I just went to costco and was amazed by the $500 bill I got at the register for not that many things. Next time, I will just buy less stuff. A friend went to Rio Casino in Las Vegas and went to a bar there and was presented with a bill for $28 for a double vodka drink. He refused it and walked away. One less drink the casino will sell. Multiply that by the number of people who will do the same in the stores, and you see what will happen- volume of products will go down, people will be laid off, and here we go again.
A break in one supply or service chain upsets the whole enchilada and it spreads outwards to many other areas until new supply and service chains are re-established. Biden is STUPID to upset the supply chains and get government involved to change things even more.
Requiring vaccination on a schedule is a great way to break a labor supply chain and force companies to try and hire people to replace ones it had to fire for not getting vaccinated.
Unleashing inflation is a great way to cut economic real output as people decide NOT to spend so much money. I just went to costco and was amazed by the $500 bill I got at the register for not that many things. Next time, I will just buy less stuff. A friend went to Rio Casino in Las Vegas and went to a bar there and was presented with a bill for $28 for a double vodka drink. He refused it and walked away. One less drink the casino will sell. Multiply that by the number of people who will do the same in the stores, and you see what will happen- volume of products will go down, people will be laid off, and here we go again.