New report shows how many jobs could be lost under $15 minimum wage

Posted by  $  mminnick 1 week, 3 days ago to Economics
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This report is from the CBO (Congressional Budget Office) and states that 1M low wage earners could loose their jobs if the $15/hr. Federal Minimum Wage is adopted.
This appears not to bother the Democrats. Their statement is "Benefits outweigh the minuses".
I don't see how 1M people loosing their jobs is a small thing . Even if we forget the human cost to those loosing their jobs, the economic coae of that number loosing their jobs is horrendous. If these people earned 20k a year that is 20B out of the economy. if you assume a multiplier effect of 3, this is 60B out of the economy. a non-trivial impact somewhere.
SOURCE URL: https://www.theblaze.com/news/new-report-shows-how-many-jobs-could-be-lost-under-15-minimum-wage

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  • Posted by  $  25n56il4 1 week, 2 days ago
    Hey, a favorite place to buy produce told me this year they couldn't get people to pick their strawberries. So, they let folks pick their own. A lot of people didn't get a job because of this $15 price.
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  • Posted by  $  CaptainKirk 1 week, 2 days ago
    Let me point out the GLOBAL impact automation is having...

    Many years ago, I went to Russia. I noticed how backwards everything was (1994), BUT how EDUCATED the people were, and how much they were becoming like Americans (motivated by a chance to do better).

    My buddy just got back. He said Google in Russia was telling him how many minutes before the train arrived, SIMPLY because he was at the train station.

    The Near Field Communication (RFID chips in the credit cards) drive the process of payment on the buses and trains. Human interactions are down.

    He admitted that in the old days NOBODY wanted a service job and nobody got fired, so service was horrible (everywhere, equally). Now, because of automation, you don't deal with people. WHEN you do, he said it appears "They want those jobs". He said the quick trip into a Federal Building to get a stamp was done in 15 minutes.

    He was blown away. He grew up in Russia, and was happy to come here as a Computer Programmer. (One of the best I have ever met, BTW. I hired him. We co-authored an Excel compatible spreadsheet engine for an application I designed. He wrote the formula compiler and I designed the optimizing Recalculation Engine. He implemented all of it).

    Anyways, I predicted these jobs would go to Kiosks. When they get better at the Kiosks, the jobs will go away. You will need 3 people to operate a FUTURE McDonalds 24x7. And that is 3 shifts of 8hrs to clean/stock and keep an eye on the machines.

    There is not ONE part of McDonalds that cannot be automated away, once the machines are stocked/maintained.
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    • Posted by freedomforall 1 week, 2 days ago
      Automation could eventually be the limiting control on human population. If people are required to produce to survive. Otherwise the earth will be overrun by ignorant human cattle who produce nothing and are a burden on those who produce. Their only purpose would be to give the elite something to control. (imo) This sounds like a bad science fiction description of an extraterrestrial invasion.
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      • Posted by  $  1 week, 2 days ago
        Don'r understand at all why the markdown. +1 to restore some semblance of sanity herein.
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        • Posted by freedomforall 1 week, 2 days ago
          Reading it, it could be easily misunderstood that I would approve of such a situation. I wouldn't. However, with the lack of ethics that many of the elite are displaying it might be a reality in the future. If we don't acknowledge the possibility will we be prepared to prevent it?
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  • Posted by term2 1 week, 2 days ago
    I can tell you we have cut our workforce already by about 12% in anticipation of higher wage rates. Automation rules !!
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    • Posted by  $  CaptainKirk 4 days, 18 hours ago
      My job: Automation Specialist with software.
      I am the grim reaper of jobs.
      I walk in, and I can visualize the number of people who will not be working!
      I have seen one shipping company go from 150 people to 15 with straight forward software upgrades!

      2 people, full-time, entering invoices. 90% of which are emailed in! (they were printing them, instead of a second monitor, LOL).
      Now the ones that are mailed in, are opened (were before), scanned, and emailed.
      All of the emails are processed by sender/subject coding and attachments.
      Parsed, read by computers, and input into the system automatically. Any invoices above certain numbers get flagged and reviewed, and new invoices from new senders are rerouted, analyzed and put into the configuration.

      Once they "get it", it goes fast. Sometimes I hate my job. I know some real nice people who have had to uproot their lives.
      But I also know at least 3 companies that would have went under without the software we developed. They were able to reduce staff, in some cases by 30-50%, and keep the company profitable.

      In fact, HERE is my suggestion to McDonalds (and all Fast Food Kiosks Designers):
      Credit Card swipe FIRST (even at the drive through).
      Pull up their recent orders, let them click to repeat them, let them STAR the ones they want at the top.
      Put a QR code on the receipt that lets the cell phone, if they know the CC #, access the information, and configure it for faster access.

      Reducing the interaction to:
      - Swipe
      - Click Order
      - Click Done
      - For 90% of transactions

      BTW, you want to suggestive sell? Offer them an AMAZING Deal: "BTW, you have never tried our Chocolate Shake. Add one for $1 now as a thank you for being a Kiosk user"...
      Other suggestions should be there as check boxes (upsize this fry, this drink, this order).

      THEN, allow the APP to do this from the car, while you are ENROUTE to the McDonalds!

      This is all too easy.

      Additional Human interaction? Negative. You are pushing the cashiers job to the client, like ATMs did.
      Finally, those 2 lane ordering windows. IMAGINE a 3rd lane for APP Orders that go to the head of the line!
      Now the sense of competition will drive people to the app, giving more time to make the food, reducing waste, etc.

      Just some thoughts...
      Too bad I don't work with the fast food companies...
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      • Posted by term2 4 days, 17 hours ago
        I cant wait for the Kiosks and the demise of the moronic order takers who cant even LISTEN to a coherent order without asking all sorts of questions over and over.
        I have thought a good kiosk designer will make a lot of money. The market is ripe.

        A couple of issues in what you raise:
        1) Some people still pay by cash cause they cant get bank accounts or credit cards.
        2) Most people re-order the same thing if they are alone. Using an identifier like email address could speed this up a lot.
        3) The remembering of typical orders could include the modifiers like customization (good example is Subway of Five Guys)
        4) I would never order before I get to the drive thru or the restaurant. I just DONT TRUST THAT THE ORDER WOULD MAKE IT THRU THE SYSTEM RIGHT.
        5) I hate the McDonalds procedure of placing the order at one drive thru kiosk with a moron who cant get the oder right, then paying at another place, then finding out that the food is not ready and to go to a waiting area until its done. I dont go to McDonalds ANY MORE because of this.
        6) I like the offers of the chocolate shake for $$ off instead of the midless suggest selling. I always tell the moron that if I wanted what they are pushing I WOULD HAVE ORDERED IT.
        7) Meanwhile, the fast food company managements are stuck in some la-la land thinking- afraid to try anything new like these suggestions.
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        • Posted by  $  CaptainKirk 4 days, 17 hours ago
          Well, the tying of recent orders to the Credit Card used is key. Because it is CC+Restaurant (So the recent orders and favoriates at Five Guys would be specific to them). The web interface for managing it would let you create groups: [alone, work, family, weekend bender] on a per restaurant basis! A quick swipe and click.

          About the cash. It is becoming less and less. And it can work for cash, but this is where COIN and BlockChain come into play. People will cash their checks into an app...

          In Russia, For example, we MUST pay employees by putting money onto their debit/credit card! (It's a debit card, and then switches to a credit card when they run out of money. BANK gets all the interest/fees).

          But cash would be:
          - Cash Order
          - Enter Order or your customer QR Code, or a QR Code from a previous order
          - Finish with the screen
          - Go to the SLOW LINE
          - Fumble through your pennies

          Where I live. VERY FEW people pay cash.
          But I live in a pretty POSH place, admittedly.

          We don't strive to improve the workflow process of someone who cannot use credit cards, or pay with a phone. Why bother? They are the 2-3% at this point. Probably less...
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          • Posted by term2 4 days, 16 hours ago
            I use walmart pay all the time. Its fast and easy and you get a record of what you spend and when. I was a bit reluctant to try it at the start, being a little untrusting by nature, but now I use it.
            I think there are a LOT of people who are reluctant to try automated ordering because its new, they are not sure they will do it right, or afraid that they will get big charges they cant fix.
            I have seen some real morons trying to order fast food when they dont even know what they want- they have trouble even communicating with a person, let alone a computer.

            I live in Las Vegas, and cash is still used. There are a lot of non-tourists here who are lets say less than prosperous, and dont have bank account or credit cards.

            I suspect that we in the USA are behind the times on these things. From what I understand, one can pay with AliPay (Alibaba) in China for most things using cell phones. While we are importing all sorts of undesirable "asylum seekers" and spending our resources on them, we are falling behind the rest of the world.

            I applaud what you do actually. Having unnecessary human workers is really stupid and just costs us more. We should take in only merit based immigrants who actually can fit in and get more advanced jobs here. History has been filled with millions of improvements to reduce the amount of work humans have to do. I do think in the future, though, that the typical level of intelligence and training needed to compete with the robots in the workforce will rise to the point where these migrants wont find jobs, except at very low wages.
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  • Posted by  $  allosaur 1 week, 2 days ago
    This big government enforced $15 minimum wage is not about "helping" workers or having anything to do with Economics 101..
    It is only is only about bagging votes for the Jackass Party.
    This identical lust for power is behind Soros and others funding the illegal immigrants storming our southern borders and lib state and city governments creating sanctuary cities.
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    • Posted by  $  CaptainKirk 4 days, 19 hours ago
      Actually, it's worse than that.

      If you make below 15/hr you are LIKELY not paying ANY income tax. If you start making that much, you suddenly have a tax burden, from both the employer and the employee that is more significant.

      And finally, these increases will lead to higher prices, which will lead to higher state sales tax for the same things we buy today.

      NEVER forget the goal is tax dollars coming in. And in the end, this is what they will get more of, as we get squeezed for their bad decisions!
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  • Posted by Russpilot 1 week, 2 days ago
    The Democrats just want to say that they got something pushed through. They don't give two sh!ts about what kind of havoc it brings. I would have thought that Obamacare would have shown people that. Their pie in the sky thinking would be laughable if it wasn't so dangerous to the rest of us.
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  • Posted by  $  qhrjk 1 week, 2 days ago
    Wouldn't the minimum wage have to increase at some point to keep up with inflation? Not saying I support a $15 minimum wage- I'm just curious and don't know anything :)
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    • Posted by  $  gharkness 1 week, 2 days ago
      No, because that's not the "job" of minimum wage. If everyone was guaranteed a "comfortable" pay regardless of their value contributed, why would they even bother to work? Just pretend and let someone else carry the load (which is what happens a lot, anyway in low skilled jobs.)

      If a worker is having trouble with inflation, that's his SIGNAL to get off his butt and become more valuable to his employer, who will reward him for increasing productivity/whatever he is selling. If the employer doesn't reward him, then the employee has learned something new to take to a different and better employer....one who will pay him according to the value he produces to the second employer's company. He has the choice to decide whether to accept the new prospective employer's offer.

      This way, everybody gets a choice. Employee can sit around and do nothing, and the employer has the CHOICE to pay him accordingly. Or, if the employee doesn't like that, he can either get better/work harder, or go find a new employer.
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    • Posted by evlwhtguy 1 week, 2 days ago
      Cost of living has nothing to do with wage. The wage is dependent on the value of the work derived from it. There is a large proportion of young people who do not produce $15.00 worth of value in an hour of work. You employer in point of fact must pay you less than the value of your work in order to turn a profit and run the business that provides the work.
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    • Posted by  $  Radio_Randy 1 week, 2 days ago
      Actually, the minimum wage will be THE cause for inflation. Then, yes, the minimum wage will have to increase...followed by inflation...followed by another increase, etc.

      It's a vicious circle that will eventually have a very bad ending.
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  • Posted by CircuitGuy 1 week, 3 days ago
    I wonder if politicians have never indexed min wage to inflation (as tax brackets and Social Security) because they get political benefit out of arguing about it while slowly adjusting for inflation after political battles.

    One thing that stands out to me is that min wage adn the free market wage for unskilled labor have stayed the same (in real terms), while GDP grown. Return on investment has gone up while the price of unskilled labor stagnated. People use this as justification for socialism and authoritarianism. If the market price for unskilled work had risen as fast as GDP, a $15 min wage would be moot because it would be lower than the market price. People don't like this fact and wonder who's to blame. The answer is no one. Most things in the world are getting better. There's no reason to expect every parameter in the economy to change the way someone would like it to. My point in all this is we (rational) people should face these facts while arguing against gov't intrusions (e.g. min wage) as a solution.
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    • Posted by  $  blarman 1 week, 2 days ago
      The other (slightly more cynical view) is that this is part of the plan. When you fix the tax brackets and then slowly inflate wages you force people into tax brackets they can't afford slowly. Then because most don't understand inflation, they complain that there is something wrong with the economy, not realizing that they are being caught in the trap set up for them by politicians.

      As a policy measure, there should be no minimum wage laws at all. Thomas Sowell has numerous pieces explaining why such laws hurt the very people the politicians claim to help. The basics are that what you are doing is saying that unless your labor is worth the minimum wage, you will be blocked by the politicians from holding a job in the first place!

      I would also like to address one other point you made, that "min wage adn the free market wage for unskilled labor have stayed the same (in real terms), while GDP grown. Return on investment has gone up while the price of unskilled labor stagnated." Why is that? I would argue that it is because the minimum wage was actually set higher than the real value of those jobs. The so-called "stagnation" was just the unseen real price of labor below the artificial floor set by law.
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      • Posted by CircuitGuy 5 days, 7 hours ago
        "minimum wage was actually set higher than the real value of those jobs"
        "The so-called "stagnation" was just the unseen real price of labor below the artificial floor set by law."

        "caught in the trap set up for them by politicians."
        I think this one part is completely false, but it's academic. The gov't wants a third of what you make sent it quarterly. The CPI is actually a good way to index the rates, a good way to keep you sending in a third, and to keep the poor sending in nothing. I'm not saying the goal is good, but the CPI works reasonably well.
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    • Posted by  $  1 week, 3 days ago
      The original intent of the minimum wage was to provide a basic salary for the young unskilled worker as they learned skills which made them more valuable to their employer and other businesses. These skills allowed advancement upward on the pay scale.
      This approach morphed into providing the full needs of the unskilled worker thus perpetuating the lack of skills and advancement. This in turn created dependencies of the politicians and government programs and so on in a never ending cycle.
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    • Posted by  $  WilliamShipley 1 week, 2 days ago
      The minimum wage is the minimum productivity that a person must attain to have a job. You also have to take into account additional taxes and required benefits,so it's more than stated.

      If your labor isn't worth that, no one can profitably hire you. And I don't care how profitable a company is, it still is bad business to hire people who subtract from the bottom line.
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