'The biggest joke in politics': Trump campaign chief disses 2020 polling

Posted by  $  nickursis 3 months ago to Politics
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Well, lets see, they said he would lose in 2016, that didin't go well, so I guess this means Trump will win again in 2020.......
SOURCE URL: https://www.yahoo.com/news/biggest-joke-politics-trump-campaign-150329763.html


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  • Posted by DrZarkov99 2 months, 4 weeks ago
    "Beto" O'Rourke drew a whopping crowd of seven in Las Vegas. Biden's announcement he was running was given to a crowd of six hundred. Sanders and Warren did a little better, with crowds of several thousand, but Trump's Orlando rally had 25,000 participants in the stadium, and about 5,000 watching on satellite screens outside. There were 150,000 who requested tickets to the Trump rally.

    The media was wowed when Sanders, Biden, Warren, and Buttigiege raised $6M in the first day, but were stunned when Trump raised over $25M in 24 hours. However, the pollsters tell us to ignore all of that, and listen to them when they claim Trump will lose to any of the collection of Democrat garden gnomes.
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  • Posted by  $  WilliamShipley 3 months ago
    "It's the economy, stupid". If the economy remains strong Trump gets reelected. If we have a recession -- and there are hints that could happen -- then whatever cartoon character the Democrats pick will win.
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    • Posted by  $  3 months ago
      And thus we had the interest rate hikes the Fed tried, and backed out of, along with their threat to do more. Trump saw they were deliberately trying to crash the economy so they could celebrate the demonrat appointed to "save" it.
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  • Posted by  $  mminnick 3 months ago
    The latest poll I saw shows Trump at 49% approval. so not taking the other polls seriously may be justified. Given the track record of polling organizations in the last election I would say skepticism of the part of the campaign could be warrented.
    As I have commented in prior posts and comments.most of the polls as don't provide enough information on sample size and composition and error bounds to make a truelly accurate assessment of the results . I did a little diging on several of the polls and found the candidates where within the margin of error of the pols. not surprising at this stage on the game.
    I just wish the pollsters would provide all of the data and the "News reporters would provide them to the public. I'll probabily be long gone before that happens on a regular basis.
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    • Posted by  $  servo75 3 months ago
      Famous saying by Mark Twain: "There are three types of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." As someone with a degree in statistics, anyone trained enough can make any poll say what they want it to say. Make an unbalanced sample that's not representative, even the wording of questions and the ordering of the answers (some studies show that given two choices, many undecided will reflexively choose the first option).

      My personal take on this is that the Presidential polls represent the popular vote and should be taken with a big grain of salt. They weren't actually that far off since Hillary did win the popular vote. Now, I think ANY polls this far out, no matter how honestly and accurately done, can not be reliable. If I'm the Trump campaign and I see him "down" by 10 to Biden, my reaction would be that it's probably very inaccurate and should be taken with a few pounds of salt, yet ignore them at your own peril, the patterns they point out could be significant over the long run. NEVER EVER underestimate the power that socialist promises have on people, particularly of the young generation, and people dependent on government. Just ask Mitt Romney. So don't take these results too seriously, but don't ignore them either. When I see the Polyanna MAGA types on Fox News mocking the Democrats and these poll numbers, and how Trump can't lose, I want to reach through the TV, grab them by the scruff of their necks and yell, "You're probably right, but don't take anything for granted. The economy can turn on a dime and Conservatives have flunked Communication Skills one too many times."
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      • Posted by DrZarkov99 2 months, 4 weeks ago
        Slight correction: that quote is from UK Prime Minister Gladstone. I'm sure Mark Twain may have said something similar afterward, but it originally came from the PM.
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        • Posted by CaptainKirk 2 months, 4 weeks ago
          Mark Twain did say:
          Pro:Con :: Progress:Congress

          And, let me assemble a room full of Idiots and Morons... And let me Assemble Congress... Oh, but I repeat myself.

          Finally, everyone in office should serve 2 terms. One if office followed by 1 in prison!

          That's why we LOVE Mark Twain!
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    • Posted by  $  3 months ago
      Well, his campaign manager makes a good point, polling science has not kept up with reality. People get their information from a lot of sources and a statistical sample of people who get their information from the wide variety of sources would have to be much larger to be meaningful. They use phones and a sample size of 5 or 6 hundred, and it's just not accurate. What is a "likely voter" today?
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      • Posted by  $  exceller 3 months ago
        "What is a "likely voter" today? "

        Exactly.

        Besides, these polling groups use the same database over and over, regardless of how demographics or voter sentiment changes.

        It is very difficult to beat a sitting president. We know that from Hussein's reign, among others, despite the dismal state he steered the country to.
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  • Posted by term2 2 months, 4 weeks ago
    I think that the Repub. and parties are just marketing organizations. Assuming they both hire leaders of essentially equal quality- and essentially all the people in the country want hoodies that the other group needs to pay for- the end result has to be a 50-50 split in the vote.

    We need a free market in politics, and ONE TERM, and no ability if the govt to take from one and give to another

    You can safely bet I would never be elected
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    • Posted by  $  2 months, 4 weeks ago
      Trump is reflective of the free market theory, he just had to use one party or another to get onboard the train, as it is a locked system. I bet we lose several good candidates to the fact they don't belong to the "right" party.
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  • Posted by term2 2 months, 4 weeks ago
    I wonder if there shouldn’t be two parties at all. Just let people run and whoever wins, wins. And the winner is just an administrator
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    • Posted by freedomforall 2 months, 4 weeks ago
      "I never submitted the whole system of my opinions to the creed of any party of men whatever, in religion, in philosophy, in politics, or in anything else, where I was capable of thinking for myself. Such an addiction is the last degradation of a free and moral agent. If I could not go to heaven but with a party, I would not go there at all."
      --Thomas Jefferson to Francis Hopkinson, 1789. ME 7:300

      "Were parties here divided merely by a greediness for office,...to take a part with either would be unworthy of a reasonable or moral man."
      --Thomas Jefferson to William Branch Giles, 1795. ME 9:317
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      • Posted by term2 2 months, 4 weeks ago
        Even tho he had slaves, he was a very astute person that I would find very interesting. We should study what he said and make some serious changes in our govt ! I found the tour of Monticello fascinating
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  • Posted by GaryL 2 months, 4 weeks ago
    We are a year and a half out from the 2020 election and all these current polls do nothing but fill the coffers of the pollsters and try to slant the real outcomes. The Mass Media is about as deceitful as any group in this entire world and honesty is a virtue completely lacking.
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  • Posted by  $  blarman 2 months, 4 weeks ago
    The current "news" (read editorial) media is the biggest joke in politics right now (and there are certainly many blood-suckers in that lot). They have ceased informing the public and have taken to only dispensing their own ideology and outright hostility. I stopped listening to them a long time ago simply because I viewed any time spent on them to be not only utterly wasted but counter-productive (I fear I don't have the intestinal fortitude to try to ingest their rants).
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    • Posted by  $  2 months, 4 weeks ago
      And thus the rise of "citizen journalism"....
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      • Posted by  $  blarman 2 months, 4 weeks ago
        It was the demise of citizens taking an active part in their own political futures which enabled the growth of the "mainstream media" in the first place. I see the return of the citizen journalist as a very good thing because it indicates individuals who are engaged in the political process and using their own judgment instead of relying on the ideologies of others. While this may not be perfect, it at least puts political debate back into the public sphere and makes people the individual owners of their own ideologies - not merely "sheeple" or followers. It is the rise of the thinker. ;)
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