Autism at 1 in 40 now? No, I don't think so.

Posted by $ Abaco 7 years, 8 months ago to Science
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You might have seen the latest headlines on this issue they have been trying to soft-sell via the news media for years. Back when they were reporting it was 1 in 80 I took two random samples, this was a decade ago, and came up with the same ratio both times: 1 in 19 had autism. I haven't bothered to look since. Don't need to. If I go down with my kids to the neighborhood park and there are five or more kids at the playground, one will have classic, obvious autism. Don't need to look for it very hard anymore. Per my math and the math of a mathematician at MIT half the kids born in 14 years will come down with it- 85% of the boys. How do you think society will handle that? There's a hint on that, too, in the news today. Basic math: 2 kids/family = every family, in effect, will be directly affected. Let me tell you...this destroys families.


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  • Posted by bsmith51 7 years, 8 months ago
    About 8 years ago, within 48 hours of receiving his vaccinations, the happy and healthy 18 month-old grandson of a friend withdrew into full-blown autism. Dealing with the repercussions has destroyed the family.
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  • Posted by $ 7 years, 8 months ago
    To clarify - here's what's troubling me. When I say I go to the playground and often see 1:5 or 2:5 affected. What I mean is that these kids are flapping their hands, obsessed with a certain object to the point of being out of control, barely verbal, toe-walking, and unable to maintain eye contact (let alone a conversation). And, it's not unusual to see a 13 year old like this. This is very troubling. I'm not talking about the kid who seems a little withdrawn with aspy. I'm talking, severely damaged - the kids that jump right out upon observation. I'll never forget the day I was meeting with a bio specialist who treated kids with autism. I met a 12-year old there who, for all intents and purposes, was just like a zombie from the walking dead - self-inflicted bite marks, blank stare, unable to communicate at all. I'll never forget that kid...
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  • Posted by $ 7 years, 8 months ago in reply to this comment.
    Yeah, this is different. There is a massive, repeatable biochemical facet to autism - unlike things like PTSD. Kids are fragile, easy to screw up.
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  • Posted by $ 7 years, 8 months ago in reply to this comment.
    Yeah, that's interesting. Autism is certainly not PTSD. Your point about dilution of diagnosis is pertinent.

    Good for you taking care of abused kids. That's tough work, I'm sure.
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  • Posted by exceller 7 years, 8 months ago in reply to this comment.
    I think your answer is getting closer to the truth.

    IMO most of the blame lies in the environment these kids grow up, a kind of disconnect between parents and children that the youngsters are not prepared to handle. This of course leads to society and its "trends" to be implemented in the home.

    Just a far fetched example: the current obsession with "gender" and other identities is hard enough for an adult to deal with, let alone for a child who is trying to find his/her way in life.

    It will probably be too late by the time the "causes" are identified and those in the front line of precipitating it will never be held responsible.
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  • Posted by kddr22 7 years, 8 months ago in reply to this comment.
    the real answer is somewhat coming.l The initial genetic screen testing is on its way for use in general practice but in my opinion it is a ways off to be specific enough to be useful yet. It gets difficult when the dx is "subjective" as some things can mimic. I take care of abused children who now have autistic like behaviors but what they really have is PTSD. There is much crossover between developmental disorders. The danger is if a dx is too diluted it takes away the resources to treat it
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  • Posted by Solver 7 years, 8 months ago
    How historically has autism been determined? If the method of measurement and calculation kept changing, it can be very difficult to make objective conclusions regarding changes.
    Take the thing we call inflation. It would be much much higher if we had kept the methods of measurement and calculation constant, instead of changing the rules based on politics.
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  • Posted by exceller 7 years, 8 months ago in reply to this comment.
    Do you have insight of what is causing it?

    You certainly must have information through your professional associations.
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  • Posted by $ 7 years, 8 months ago in reply to this comment.
    Oh, and I must add that my samples were not nationwide. Thanks for mentioning that. They were in our local region. At least...the first thought I had, and still may be the case, is that we are dealing with a hot spot. But, I have never heard that proposed by others. So, who knows?
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  • Posted by $ 7 years, 8 months ago in reply to this comment.
    It was almost non-existent as recent as 1994. A few things have changed since then... Through that time I only saw one child with autism. I've since seen hundreds - through my professional and personal associations. It's a massive epidemic. It's an exponential function, so hold on to your hats.
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  • Posted by $ 7 years, 8 months ago in reply to this comment.
    The 1:19 had received official diagnosis. Diagnosis a decade ago is not what it is today, for some reason.
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  • Posted by CTYankee 7 years, 8 months ago
    Define 'Autism'? Caution: When your only tool is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.

    Just because you recognize things which the 'medical-industrial-complex' defines as being 'on the spectrum' doesn't mean that 1:19 nationwide is autistic!
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  • Posted by exceller 7 years, 8 months ago
    It is simply very difficult to accept these numbers.

    If it were true, what triggers it? Autism has not been around at the current levels in the past.

    I read that injecting babies with large doses of vaccines may be one of the culprits which was denied by some medical professionals.

    I still find it hard to believe.
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