Smart Disruption: Batteries, EV, Solar, Self-Driving Cars -- Come Together

Posted by CaptainKirk 2 years, 8 months ago to Technology
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A friend sent this to me, it is worth watching.

I love disruptions, and I love the S curve adoption paradigm. Flat Screen TVs.
You can't give away an old big TV...

He proposes that battery costs will continue to go down. That in about 3 years, it will be $22,000 for a 200 mile Electric Vehicle.
Now I will be honest. Having one of these as he describes will be great.

Also, solar, which I stand currently AGAINST because it does not pay for itself (YET) will continue to improve by becoming better and being adopted more, and the price per KWH will keep dropping until it is BELOW transmission costs.

Autonomous Vehicles. THIS ONE I SAW. (I would say, imagine when ALL of Hertz cars are autonomous. First, when you rent, it will know when you land, and it will pick you up at the airport! And drop you off. No stopping by the car rental place. But NEXT. Have you ever seen the cars SITTING in the lot, doing nothing. If they are autonomous, they will let them go be Uber/Lyft Autonomous vehicles. And they will profit from them 24/7). But his point is. Imagine when Owning a car is such a luxury because we only use our cars 6% of the time, that when we buy one, we can have it take us to work, and then be a service vehicle until it picks us up to take us home. Then it goes out and services more people.

The highest cost of Uber is paying the driver.

He believes that once we go EV (electric Vehicle), that the cost per mile will drop 10 fold. (I believe his analysis is FLAWED here. Shocks, Struts, etc are expensive and exist on both sets of vehicles. And EVs don't have many moving parts. But the Batteries are a HUGE percentage of the price of the car, as opposed to an engine or a transmission!) [Plus we don't know how an EV performs in -70 Degree weather, or how it will work in 135 degree sun, and 200+ degrees under the hood, where heat destroys batteries]

I have YET to have a Laptop battery last 3 years and be worth anything, in the NICEST of temperatures constantly.

But the video is worth watching. I am curious on other peoples views. I believe his is right about ONE thing:
- When things get 10x better or 10x Cheaper, the adoption rate sky rockets.
- When things cost Less in general (Immediate payback) the switching starts.

He says in 7-8 years (maximum 14 years), solar power will be 100% of the grid power. Because even though it is tiny (1% now), it is doubling every year (worldwide). And that is driving down the price/KWH and that is spurring more demand.

He does not mention Near Field Charging technology, and the ability to maybe put that in a LANE on the road, so that you charge your car on a long trip while driving it (Like the 3rd rail of a subway vehicle). It may cost more to do it, but it means not stopping and waiting for a full charge of a car to do a long trip.

But I imagine a booster battery pack (like a propane exchange tank), where on a long trip, you get 100 extra miles with this thing, and you swap it for a full charged one, leaving this one behind. Until they get the instant charging going.

He is suggesting by 2030 all NEW vehicles will be electric, and non-electric vehicles will be like Old TVs. He also claims they will cost 10x less to operate an EV than a Gas powered vehicle.

And finally, THAT will shake up our world for OIL, Cars, Car Insurance, Repair Shops, Collision Shops, Taxi/Uber/Lyft.

I can picture a drive through using this technology so that your food is timed and ready perfectly when you get there. Because if you are not driving, you can order what you want, and the car will negotiate with the robots building your sandwich the exact time you will arrive. There will be no queue. Cars will queue OFFLINE. And when their food is done, they will turn into a pickup lane, and pickup the food in one pass, having already paid for it. (And the AI will make sure the other AI included the freaking straw and napkins)

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  • Posted by $ Olduglycarl 2 years, 8 months ago
    Not so smart, none of them have factored in a carrington like event not to mention the Grand Solar Minimum with more cloudy days or volcanic ash filled skies, a weakened magnetic shield and magnetic poles wandering.

    Not exactly the right time to pull this off.

    I for one will morn the privately owned combustion driven the sound but the biggest loss will be personal autonomy and the skills to back it up.
    I would be bored to tears and full of fears in a computer driven car with no ejection seat when the thing goes wacky...and they will go wacky.
    There is no such thing as a "Glitch" free electronic device...never mind an Artificial unintellegent electronic device.
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