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EXTRA EXTRA!!!...Global warming is going DOWN!...this time for the count.

Posted by $ Olduglycarl 6 years, 8 months ago to Science
18 comments | Share | Flag

Note: once you click on the link, add: pdf to the URL or website address. For some reason I had to take it out to post. or use the link below.
http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/10/22...

This is awesome news. Climate scientist will finally include the sun's influence upon climate and acknowledge the coming Grand Solar Minimum as a major factor in our climate future.
I will not say: We told you so.

Abstract.
This paper describes the recommended solar
forcing dataset for CMIP6 and highlights changes with re-
spect to CMIP5. The solar forcing is provided for radiative
properties, namely total solar irradiance (TSI), solar spec-
tral irradiance (SSI), and the F10.7 index as well as parti-
cle forcing, including geomagnetic indices Ap and Kp, and
ionization rates to account for effects of solar protons, elec-
trons, and galactic cosmic rays. This is the first time that a
recommendation for solar-driven particle forcing has been
provided for a CMIP exercise. The solar forcing datasets
are provided at daily and monthly resolution separately for
the CMIP6 preindustrial control, historical (1850–2014), and
future (2015–2300) simulations. For the preindustrial con-
trol simulation, both constant and time-varying solar forcing
components are provided, with the latter including variability
on 11-year and shorter timescales but no long-term changes.
For the future, we provide a realistic scenario of what solar
behavior could be, as well as an additional extreme Maunder-
minimum-like sensitivity scenario. This paper describes the
forcing datasets and also provides detailed recommendations
as to their implementation in current climate models.
For the historical simulations, the TSI and SSI time se-
ries are defined as the average of two solar irradiance mod-
els that are adapted to CMIP6 needs: an empirical one
Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union.

It's a lengthy read and I am still digesting it but for the uninitiated, no need to go beyond the Abstract.
SOURCE URL: http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/10/2247/2017/gmd-10-2247-2017.


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  • Posted by Temlakos 6 years, 8 months ago
    Add this to it:

    This report:

    https://thsresearch.files.wordpress.c...

    shows clear evidence of dry-labbing.

    I quote directly from the abstract:

    > The conclusive findings of this research are that the three GAST data sets are not a valid representation of reality. In fact, the magnitude of their historical data adjustments, that removed their cyclical temperature patterns, are totally inconsistent with published and credible U.S. and other temperature data. Thus, it is impossible to conclude from the three published GAST data sets that recent years have been the warmest ever –despite current claims of record setting warming.

    > Finally, since GAST data set validity is a necessary condition for EPA’s GHG/CO2 Endangerment Finding, it too is invalidated by these research findings.

    Translation: those published results are a total dry-lab job. Somebody falsified the data. And because the Environmental Protection Agency (under Obama) relied on these data, they haven't a leg to stand on, either.

    Here we see temperatures going down, not up.

    http://principia-scientific.org/plumm...

    And here: a basic challenge to the entire concept of "atmospheric greenhouse effect." The gist of this paper is that the atmosphere, with free convection currents, cannot act like a greenhouse. Real greenhouses keep plants hot by inhibiting convection. This does not happen in the entire atmosphere.

    https://www.omicsonline.org/open-acce...

    I have previously, in other forums, criticized Arrhenius' original greenhouse premise on the basis that he had no scientific grounds to generalize from a confined space to the entire atmosphere and assume the same rules applied to both environments.

    If this were Television City in Hollywood, it could make an excellent television treatment: Perry Mason: The Case of the Besmocked Bunco Artists.
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    • Posted by KevinSchwinkendorf 6 years, 8 months ago
      Planetary scientists also claim that the hot temperatures on Venus are due to an "out-of-control greenhouse effect." Then again, Venus is much closer to the Sun than the Earth is, but they say that Venus is still way too hot for simply its closer distance from the Sun to account for. Of course, the atmosphere on Venus is very different from Earth: 100 times the density, and much of it is sulfuric acid. As an engineer, I understand that computer models have to be validated (predictions compared with actual measurements), but as far as I know, the comparisons of Global Climate Model computer codes with historic temperature data do not support the reliability of the GCMs (at least not at this time...).
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      • Posted by Temlakos 6 years, 8 months ago
        The comparisons of models with history never have matched. But you can't tell people that, who have strong feelings about the environment. Anyone who disagrees with them, must be taking a bribe from "the fossil fuel industry," as if said industry were a monolithic whole or a gang of super-co-operative members. You'd think if the truth were not on their side, one of them would break free and rat out the others, just to stand out from the crowd. But no.
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      • Posted by $ 6 years, 8 months ago
        If you meant G"S"M's then of course they think they don't compare because: 1 the data is flawed, manipulated and downright made up. Don't even come close to satellite readings. 2 scientist (in general) have always, in western society avoided the natural cycles due to their own arrogance and thinking our ancestors were just pagan mystics and 3 they never searched for the recorded temperatures in the last Grand Solar Minimums...many of which can be gotten from sediments, tree rings and ice cores...not to mention Mr and Mrs Maunder's work and of course...Poor Richards Almanac.
        I have found that although they spoke from the bicameral brain, they still had valuable information that modern science can't even imagine yet.
        Science should be open to everything and never, never assume to find anything in particular when they look...just look to see whats there, then check it out.
        They have assumed that carbon and methane, abet being very, very small percentages of our atmosphere could hold on to heat...recently when trying to develop a system that would tell us, by looking at the composition of the atmospheres of different planets, if the climate was right for life to exist, they found conclusively that carbon and methane cannot hold on to heat...it is water vapor that does that on a planet that is conducive to life.
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  • Posted by $ nickursis 6 years, 8 months ago
    The first paragraph alone is an indictment of all the previous crap (i.e. before 2007), so even the infamous Al Gore ripoff session was inaccurate, yet everyone who has been bringing this stuff up just gets tarred and feathered with "Denier"....Well, that can also help bolster some of the people in Govt who have said "Hold on here..."
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    • Posted by $ 6 years, 8 months ago
      I got thru...barely, most of it last night. They cleverly left a smidgen of wiggle room to capture the man caused warmers. (one sentence, actually) Their work will now become main stream!..Yea!!! and maybe we "the little people" (as we are considered by the lamestream news outlets) might get some valuable information we might use to create values that will help ourselves and mankind, in general, survive and generally what to expect in the future.
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  • Posted by Owlsrayne 6 years, 8 months ago
    Wouldn't be nice if someone from The Gulch could present such a paper at California Gov, Jerry Brown's Climate Conference in 2018. That would a big hole the Gov's belief in so-called global warming. It's great these papers are on the internet, But, a lot of people in the world don't know about them.
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