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Bloomberg can't understand why auto sales are falling

Posted by $ blarman 8 years ago to Economics
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It's actually pretty simple: median income isn't even $50K!

One of the huge problems with the auto industry is that the industry itself is trying to turn a basic necessity for transportation into a luxury. As a result its no wonder that sales are dropping.

Me? I don't need the fancy trimmings. Give me an old-fashioned carburetor, manual transmission, manual door locks and windows and I'm fine. I don't need an in-dash GPS, back-up sensors, or 80 computers monitoring the temperature of my seat.


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  • Posted by gbvette 8 years ago
    Don't blame the car companies for the high cost of cars. The main reason new cars cost so much, and have so many electronics and computers, is the Federal Government.

    The tire pressure monitors are Federally mandated. Computers, fuel injection, overdrive transmissions, expensive light weight materials. start/stop engine programming, etc, are all a result of Federal gas mileage standards. Air bags and the sensors and computers needed to operate them, are in cars because of Federal passive restraint regulations. Back up cameras and stability control systems, are also required by Federal law. The Federal Government even has standards for the level of "reflectivity" of interior surfaces!

    Many of the extras in cars are there, because the computers needed to handle all of the Federally mandated crap, have plenty of excess capacity, so the auto companies might as well use that capacity. If you have to put a screen in the dash for the back up camera, you might as well add nav and a high end sound system to it. The cost of nav systems have halved in the last few years, because cars already have the screen in the dash.

    Making things like power windows standard, actually brings the cost of them down. It eliminates the need to engineer, manufacture and stock parts for both power and manual windows.
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  • Posted by $ jlc 8 years ago
    I do not think the conclusion this article comes to is at all accurate. I think that the reason that auto sales are stalling is that everyone knows that the self-driving cars are on the verge of being released. For decades, automakers have been trying to sell their new models on the basis of 'has a dashboard that looks like an airplane' or 'has a rear style that looks like an elephant sat on it'. People flocked to buy electric and hybrid vehicles when they were released, because it was an actual substantial change. Now, with the possibility of having a autodrive option...why would you buy a car before that came out?

    I have never bought a new car, but I have good credit and would consider buying a nice Jeep Grand Cherokee new if it came with autodrive that was at least good on highways.

    Jan
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  • Posted by GaryL 8 years ago in reply to this comment.
    The TPMS sensor in each wheel has a slightly different frequency. They start on the front driver side and read each sensor and then plug into the OBD connection under the dash and program the computer from the reader. I can rotate the set of programmed wheels on the vehicle and no problem there but when I switch the set of wheels between summer and winter I have to go to the dealer for re programming or the idiot light just blinks constantly on the dash. Some of the older TPMS systems allowed you to do it yourself with a magnetic donut you placed on each valve stem during programming but the new systems are designed to require a visit to the dealer or to a tire place that has the expensive programmer computer. So far the dealer has never charged me to program the wheels but it is a way for them to get you in for service and find other pay as you go issues. Can we all spell SCAM! There are a few companies making the programmer computers for the DIY types like me but even they are close to $200. It can't be done without the computer gadget on our newer 4 Runner and the Lexus.
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  • Posted by zonoz 8 years ago in reply to this comment.
    I bought my last new vehicle 1994. Since then for our family csr I've avoided taking the depreciation hit by buying 3 to 4 year old, sometimes even older if they're really nice, used vehicles and I've had good luck doing it. But having a background in auto repair probably gives me an edge most people don't have. But for my personal vehicles I'm stuck in the 90's. My 92 Dakota with over 250k recently shucked the transfer case whick I'll fix over the summer, but meantime I've pulled a recently purchased 95 Dakota exactly like the 92 out of storage and am driving it now as I do some minor repairs to it, swapping parts from another wrecked 95 that I bought for the transfer case to replace the one in the 92. These trucks are 5.2 liter V8 powered. 5 wheel drive, automatic transmission, club cabs, with gull power and air. Easy to work on when they break which is seldom and parts are cheap when they do because of their age. Insurance snd registration costs are also very low due to the age of the trucks. No, I don't get great mileage, only 15-20 mpg, but I can pull my trailers, boat, haul friends broken down cars in, and have gun four wheeling and not worry about trashing a $50 -$60,000 truck. If mine gets a dent or a scratch it just adds character
    If I tesr a fender off I mskr a trip to the salvage yatd for another one that might cost me $50.00. Right now I've got 5 of these trucks. 4 are V8, 3 of those are 4x4, one has a snowplow on it, and one is 2 wheel drive. Plus the wrecked one is V6 4x4 so I've got some goid spare parts for my drivers and an engine and transmission to sell. The nice thing? All I've got tied ip in these 5 trucks is $3800.00, and the last V6 and manual trans I sold for $1000.00 ad I recall.and in the 15 or so years I've been doing this they've stranded me once while I can't remembet how many broken down cars I've hauled in!
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  • Posted by zonoz 8 years ago in reply to this comment.
    Let's see, do I need food for my kids or a new car? Do I need a roof over my head or a new car? Not hard to decide where ones propritied are.
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  • Posted by zonoz 8 years ago in reply to this comment.
    You can. All it takes is a tire pressure gauge just like before. All that TPMS does is tell you that a tire is low without you getting out of your car. Just ignore the low pressure light and vheck your tire pressures yourself and save the money. But I don't know why you have to have them reprogrammed anyway as long as you put them back on the same vehicle they should read. Otherwise just getting a flat repaired eould require a trip to the dealer. Doesn't make sense.
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  • Posted by $ Olduglycarl 8 years ago
    Some of us are beginning to realize this and the car industry has become a new age, copy cat collection of global ugly transportation.

    My simple basic 07 Ford Ranger with 200K on the OD... suits me just fine...
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  • Posted by zonoz 8 years ago in reply to this comment.
    I think if a survey were to be done it would show that people keep their cars longer because they can't afford to buy a new one. But yes, to a certain degree cars in general DO last longer which allows one the ability to keep one used car longer instead of going through a "new" used car every 2 or 3 years.
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  • Posted by mspalding 8 years ago
    Currently the average age of the US car fleet is 11.5 years. People keep their cars longer because they are built to last longer.
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  • Posted by scojohnson 8 years ago
    LOL... cars are cheap... those of us with RVs & hunting hobbies... price out a decent GMC Denali HD or a Silverado Z71 Crew Cab Dually with Duramax Diesel engines, easily $80,000.
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  • Posted by $ CBJ 8 years ago in reply to this comment.
    I have a different idiot light that stays on. I just ignore it. Easier and cheaper than taking the car to a dealer. If it gets too annoying I'll consider duct tape.

    Are you still able to check your tire pressures manually?
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  • Posted by $ 8 years ago in reply to this comment.
    For the same reason I can't ethically buy an all-electric car. What they don't tell you is that the battery packs have to be replaced every few years at a whopping $10K per. I can put a LOT of gas through an engine for $10,000!
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  • Posted by $ CBJ 8 years ago
    I think new car sales are falling because of the three U's:

    Unaffordable
    Used
    Uber
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  • Posted by GaryL 8 years ago
    It is a sad commentary on Technological progress.
    The more expensive a car is directly relates to all the gadgets and computers contained within. Basically just more stuff to fail and break or go bad rendering the vehicle to the scrap heap. So much of the technology in the cars of today are out of the reach of most owners and even many of the corners auto repair shops.
    As an example, I have 2 full sets of wheels and tires for summer and winter on both of our vehicles. I bought the second set of the exact same wheels for each SUV and had snow tires and the TPMS (Tire Pressure Monitoring System) sensors installed. Every spring and every fall when I change the wheels I have to take the vehicle to the dealer to re program the TPMS sensors or the idiot light remains on. You can't do it yourself because it takes a very expensive computer to read the TPMS sensor frequency and then plug into the OBD in the car to change the settings. Wish I could just monitor my own tire pressures just like I have for the past 50 years.
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  • Posted by jetmec 8 years ago
    May be the older cars were better looking than todays jelly moulds!
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  • Posted by jimjamesjames 8 years ago
    I'll never give up electric windows. You need them for socializing on the back roads of Wyoming.
    (If you can't figure that one out, you are a city slicker, for sure....lol)
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  • Posted by wiggys 8 years ago
    when people who buy cars do not have an income because they do not have a job many things including cars do not get bought. not difficult to understand.
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  • Posted by $ 8 years ago in reply to this comment.
    Yup. I have a 1991 with 250K on it that I just had in to the mechanic. He said it was running fine and it still gets 30 mpg.
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  • Posted by freedomforall 8 years ago in reply to this comment.
    You are so right about older used cars waaaay back in the 20th century ;^) In my youth I wouldn't have expected reliability in a used car beyond 60,000 miles. Today well cared for used vehicles are much more reliable at higher mileage. Although the cost of repairs is much higher today, repairs are less frequent. Today's used cars are much safer, and use a bit less fuel than 30 years ago, too.
    I wish there was more room on the road to enjoy them though ;^)
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  • Posted by freedomforall 8 years ago in reply to this comment.
    Your '02, '05, and my '99 (assuming all kept in good operating condition) put out so little pollution it isn't worth discussing any alleged advantage of a new vehicle in comparison. (I admit I paid almost double the $3000 when I bought it 3 years ago but there are scores of good (under $3000) cars available that emit very little pollution.) Buying a new car today is an irrational act based strictly on economics. My (under $200) aftermarket audio system is better than most new car systems and my $50 smartphone has a GPS that is as good as one in a new vehicle. Prestige and lifestyle is what US auto makers sell, not transportation.
    BTW, most of the cars sold in New Zealand are used cars imported from Japan. As I understand it, the Japanese are hit with a large tax if they keep a car beyond a few years. This is supposed to help the Japanese auto industry, but it also provides a benefit to NZ drivers because there is a big supply of relatively young used cars for import from japan.
    I love that people have the choice to buy new cars here, too. I will need to buy another good used car someday;^)
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  • Posted by CircuitGuy 8 years ago in reply to this comment.
    "I completely agree that we don't need a "Cash for Clunkers" program"
    I think gov't paying people to break perfectly good stuff is evil. Certainly poor and/or frugal buyers would have been interested in purchasing a $3000 that the gov't paid someone $4,0000 to trash.

    Those cars have a higher cost on the environment than other cars, but by how much? Maybe three times worse? So someone consolidating three car trips into one have more effect. Let's say driving a new $20k car 25 miles generates $0.25 in local pollution and $0.75 in long-term costs of global warming, for a total of $1, and the old $3k car costs $3 per 25 miles--> the old car is $0.08 / mile more a toll on the environment. So even if people had to pay for the damage to the environment, they'd have to drive $17k / $0.08 = 212,500 miles before the new car was cheaper. For someone who doesn't drive that much, the clunker is the better choice.

    This is complicated because it's hard to quantify the immediate local pollution from an old car, and it's really hard quantify the future costs of global warming and then amortize them back to the prevent-value cost of a something you do today. We're not even sure what percentage of which human activities cause global warming. But it's damned simple to quantify the value lost by trashing a $3,000 car: $3,000.
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  • Posted by CircuitGuy 8 years ago in reply to this comment.
    "The question I ask is how much more you spend on incidental repairs over that lifespan."
    Our cars are from '02 and '05. So far they keep running, and the mfg scheduled maintenance isn't bad. I'm not sure if that's true of recent cars. I just know my 15-y/o car is nothing like the 15-y/o cars I remember from long ago.
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  • Posted by $ 8 years ago in reply to this comment.
    New cars may last longer. The question I ask is how much more you spend on incidental repairs over that lifespan. There are so many more things that can break in new cars!

    And it is typical in driving off the lot for a car to lose 10%-15% of its resale value. Ridiculous but it is what it is. What that really shows is that automobiles are over-priced compared to true market value.

    Typically for vehicles, depreciation schedules is five years - even for commercial big rigs. No company in their right mind is going to pay for it on consumer terms of eight years...

    I completely agree that we don't need a "Cash for Clunkers" program. They touted that one as a way to clean up the environment, but what it really was was a shot at the Federal Government to control the dealers (you should have seen what they demanded in order to sign up to participate in the program) as well as to drive consumers to new cars to profit their union pals.
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  • Posted by CircuitGuy 8 years ago
    The industry economist quoted says only 5% of the population buys new cars. I suspect that's because they last longer. They used to say a car would lose half its value in three years and then start having major problems at 60k miles. If you flipped the odometer, you had a very old car. It seems like now they depreciate over a longer period and a more constant slope. They used depreciate much faster at first. You can get a lot of good reliable life out of an older car now. Or you can spend $50k on new car if you have money to spare. This is a great thing.

    We don't need another program to pay people $4,000 to trash a perfectly good car by running the motor with bits of metal in the oil. I found that disgraceful.
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