US not only major economy in massive debt

Posted by $ blarman 7 years, 8 months ago to Economics
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This was news to me, but it's a mixed bag. It emphasizes how frail the world economy is due to rampant debt, but also means that the very economic warfare China threatens against the US could very easily backfire.
SOURCE URL: http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2016-china-debt/?cmpid=BBD082416_BIZ


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  • Posted by Herb7734 7 years, 7 months ago
    The world-wide debt is increasing at so fast a rate that it may never be fixed. Unlike the board game Monopoly, It cannot be wiped out and start all over. Eventually, like a house on fire, it it will go to ashes, and do you know who the clean-up crew will be after the firemen have left? The communists, the socialists, and every form of collectivist. They will point out how capitalism failed, and that what is needed is a government in which everything is spread out equally, blah, b'blahblah, blah blah. Welcome to the dark ages. Not brought to you by war, but by debt.
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    • Posted by mccannon01 7 years, 7 months ago
      Definitely +1 on predicting the coming dark age and who will be blamed. I expect it will be long and nasty.

      Maybe it would make an interesting Gulch project to have some stone tablets inscribed with the real reason for the predicted collapse and then offer the Capitalist solution. Bury them in hopes they will be dug up some century in the future and the people then may think they have uncovered some great wisdom from the time when mythology says there was actually a great free civilization and restart the march to freedom and prosperity. Hmmm, wonder what the tablets would say and should they be accompanied with a "Rosetta stone" of various languages and pictographs.
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    • Posted by lrshultis 7 years, 7 months ago
      Not much that can be done about a collapse as long as most people, left and right and others, fear freedom for all, which might be better known as laissez faire capitalism.
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  • Posted by salta 7 years, 7 months ago
    I have seen an analysis of government debt against revenues, instead of against GDP. It makes more sense if you think of the analogy of applying for a mortgage. Your bank wants to know your salary, not the total money available to your employer from which he pays your salary (just like government does not have access to ALL of GDP).

    I cannot find the article right now, but the result was quite shocking. Greece actually looked better than the US, because even though the US has higher GDP per capita, the tax rates are much lower.
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  • Posted by Lucky 7 years, 7 months ago
    It is correct to say that all the big economies have massive debt, and some smaller economies have dangerous levels.
    But there is a point the article makes that should be considered. Yes the size of debt matters, but who owns the debt may be quite important. The article is suggesting that for China there is such a level of interlinking that the risk of instability is low.
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    • Posted by $ 7 years, 7 months ago
      Especially if the government can just default on that loan without repercussions because they control the people and any dissent or dissatisfaction which would arise from default...
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  • Posted by chad 7 years, 7 months ago
    Watched a University Marxist economist explain why capitalism would ultimately fail. While he pointed out several very bad problems in the US economy and blamed it on free market capitalism he was right about the problems and wrong about the cause. Each problem had been caused by the use of forced economic solutions which are caused by the state not the freedom to choose what you will buy in a free market system. The problem with this prediction of whether or not an economy might fail is based on predicting the outcome of a socialist economy. Saying that China may not go bust because of controverted formulas based on GDP vs money supply fails to observe an economy that has built "ghost cities" in order to spend money to make the economy grow. Amazing to see cities that could house millions with only a few thousand living there. Not enough people to turn out the lights at night. This is in no way a sound economy.
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  • Posted by $ TomB666 7 years, 7 months ago
    There is no reason for the US government to default. Because its debt is in dollars, it can ‘print’ as much as it needs to make payments. Two points here: it doesn’t actually ‘print’ the dollars and you’ll get the money but….

    As to printing, the Fed and the Treasury swap debt (aka monetize it) so that each hold the others notes.
    These are mostly computer entries, with no paper trading between them. Officially the Fed buys Treasury notes/bonds with its Federal Reserve Notes. Both of these are debt instruments, only payable in other debt instruments. No longer are Treasury notes/bonds redeemable in anything other then Federal reserve notes, which are also ‘notes’ or promises to pay. However the promise to pay is only in more paper.

    Once I realized how the government fiddles the money I knew I’d get the social security and military retirement I earned, only the money would not buy much. Since I retired, my income in real terms has gone down every year even though I get more dollars. The cost of living adjustments are never enough to offset the devaluation of the money.

    China, Russia, and others would like to stop using the dollar as the world’s reserve currency and there is some movement in that direction. When it happens we’ll be getting baskets of paper that will be more useful in the bath room then anywhere else.
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  • Posted by rbroberg 7 years, 7 months ago
    Are the numbers shown generally adjusted for inflation?
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    • Posted by $ 7 years, 7 months ago
      Unknown. As it is Bloomberg and not an actual economist putting out the article, I hazard to say no. But I'm not sure how that applies. Adjusting for inflation is a tactic used to compare different economies at different times in relative buying power. All adjusting it would tell you is how bad things are in terms of some other era.
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      • Posted by $ MichaelAarethun 7 years, 7 months ago
        And when used in the cycle of repression inflation , devaluation, debt repudiation and kept out of hte COLA computations they have no connection with reality. Looks like 1.3% this year after some point fives, ones, and one point fives. none of which add up to the loss of buying power from the financial crash of 2008. Recession my burro that was pure frijoles.
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  • Posted by $ MichaelAarethun 7 years, 7 months ago
    I noted they made a big deal out of GDP. But again failed to address NDP a much more interesting and appropriate tool. I also do not believe the per cent of GDP figures unless, as in COLA, they are smoke and mirroring again.
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    • Posted by $ 7 years, 7 months ago
      Given that this is China we're talking about, the numbers are already smoke and mirrors...
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      • Posted by $ allosaur 7 years, 7 months ago
        You can't trust what any government says about the economy any more.
        Same goes for economists.
        I'd sooner trust a meteorologist.
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        • Posted by term2 7 years, 7 months ago
          I sometimes listen to what they say, but believe none of it. Trust, but Verify !! So many hidden agendas out there, and people just say what supports what they want.
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          • Posted by $ allosaur 7 years, 7 months ago
            Tips on stocks to buy shows up regularly in my email.
            I always think three words: Pump and dump.
            When enough people buy to increase the share price, the pumper dumps to make money off those he conned.
            Years back I lost $300 learning that with cheap penny stocks I used to gamble with.
            Trust no one but yourself.
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