Correct Prediction from StraightLine Logic One Year Ago

Posted by CircuitGuy 3 years, 10 months ago to Economics
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I was actually a year and day ago. The prediction was gold would outperform S&P 500 over a 1-year period.
S&P 4.4%
Gold 19.2%

Half way through this 1-yr period, I became more bearish. I was mostly in domestic large cap 1 year ago. I increased international and bond exposure. The bonds concern me b/c rates are slow low and I'm predicting a steepening yield curve. My prediction has not come true, so the bonds have done decent.

I still have no precious metals b/c I think the risk of bad monetary/fiscal policy is already priced into gold. Monetary/fiscal policy problems could be fixed very easily once the political will exists. I say easily, provided no one forces you to listen to the histrionics about it from commentators. Robert Gore, who brought us this correct Au-vs-S&P prediction a year ago, thinks we won't fix the problems until it's a full-on crisis, not the mini-crisis that I (who brought you an incorrect prediction) predict.

I find the current conditions maddening b/c I don't understand why inflation is low and yield curve is flat. Robert Gore will tell us all the inflation comes in the value of debt and equity, not goods and services. So we're selling each other the same goods and services for the same price and earning the same profit, but the value of stocks and bonds is much much higher because their prices rise until their yield works out to Treasury + risk. Okay, but why does that not happen to goods and services?

Regarding the flat yield curve, people here think it's because the market prices in the effects of low growth due to increased rent seeking, corruption, and general gov't intrusion into the economy. These are real problems, but saying they've increased in recent years enough to account for low rates sounds like pure politics. Something else I don't understand has been going on for the past 10 years.

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