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Atlas Shrugged endgame arrives in Venezuela

Posted by $ CBJ 7 years, 10 months ago to Economics
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"Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro on Saturday ordered authorities to seize factories that have stopped production and jail their owners . . . "
SOURCE URL: http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/maduro-orders-seizure-of-closed-venezuela-factories-jailing-of-owners/ar-BBt3bLI?li=BBnbfcL


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    Posted by term2 7 years, 10 months ago
    We in the USA should watch very closely what is happening in Venezuela, with the idea in mind to estimate how long it will take to reach various milestones and give us time to evade at least the worst of them.

    I find it very interesting that the people of Venezuela put up with Maduro. Its a testament to the power of emotional manipulation and lack of thinking I suppose. The opposition leader gets assassinated and Maduro lives on. Amazing.

    So how many years do we have here before we reach where Venezuela is at now? Will it be a slow descent into disaster taking 50 years, with each year being worse than the last? Or will it take more like 10 years of slow disaster, or will it happen with one big economic crash ?
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    • Posted by $ jbrenner 7 years, 10 months ago
      One of the lessons of Atlas Shrugged is that looters will find new sources to loot for a lot longer than producers think is possible. What seems like an earthquake to us will be but a tremor, and it will happen over and over and over again.

      Nonetheless, remember Venezuela was one of the most productive countries in South America 25 years ago, with Chile being among the least. Now see how their fortunes have reversed along with their philosophical changes.
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      • Posted by term2 7 years, 10 months ago
        I suppose the length of time the society will last is determined by its total wealth divided by the rate at which it is being consumed by the statists. Venezuela has wealth in the ground, but it cant get it OUT of the ground even. In the USA, I think if you take the total wealth and subtract the unfunded liabilities of the government, we are already technically bankrupt, but the promises made by the government arent all coming due at once, so we are still limping along.

        I dont like living like this, especially as I get older and less able to recover from a real crash.

        On the one hand I want to tie the hands of the establishment a bit to slow down the move to statism (Trump), and on the other hand I wonder if its not best to get it over with and provoke a real economic crash (Sanders).
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        • Posted by XenokRoy 7 years, 10 months ago
          Either are likely to provoke an economic crash.

          The problem is the US has deep pockets in the form of wealth than can be stolen to keep things moving. It may take another century to get to the point that we cannot steal anything else. Even Venezuela is still providing loot to the looters. A far smaller economy that was effectively shut down 20 years ago.

          How long do we run with our own economy shut down? A lot of variables with that one.

          While we have near slave labor in third world countries to make things cheap to buy, the looters can last much longer. We also all become looters to some small capacity, if we want to or not.
          While we have the ability to increase taxes in one of a thousand ways we are taxed, they can continue and in most cases hide the additional tax from the general public. This will allow the US to function for a very long time before it fails.

          The only way I see a fast closure is if we have a massive economic collapse. This would have to be global in nature to remove the wealth of the US and her citizens. There is Francisco to speed that process along, and it is likely to take centuries, not decades or years, without a major event to make it happen.

          Add to this most the younger people do not even realize freedom is largely gone. They accept and even want socialism. This makes the death slower, longer and less painful for those that think they want collectivism in some form.
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          • Posted by term2 7 years, 10 months ago
            That was a very good analysis. I agree it will take a long time, not just 10 years. We are all working more and more to support the looters already, which lends support to the "shrugging" plan of John Galt. The more we try to invent and become more efficient, the more we supply the looters with the tools to ply their trade.

            Ayn Rand was one smart person !! It didnt hit me until I listened to the Orren Boyle discussion on the phone where he said that "Rearden's success will give us the tools to bring him down". I didnt understand how profound that was until I thought about it a bit.

            Now I resent paying ANY taxes at all, because I am supporting the very thing that will eventually make it impossible for me to exist.
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            • Posted by XenokRoy 7 years, 10 months ago
              term,

              I have spent the last 15 years in director level positions in the software industry. I would say that my actions have created 200 jobs or so over that time span. It makes me a bit sick that I have likely added around 60 million to the tax coffers between myself and those that have worked for me over the years between federal and local taxes.

              I am currently looking at a job that pays about 1/3 what I make working for a state university, one of the reasons for this is that I no longer wish to fund the beast that attempts to make a slave of me.

              I will be subsidised by the state, as all workers as the university are) for about the same amount I will pay the state/fed in taxes. Keeping only the part that is funded by people who pay for their education. It will equal no increased tax base from me. It's the closest thing I can see to a strike where I can still take care of me and mine while no longer funding the state or federal systems.

              I can see no way forward to resolve the current problem, but I also do not wish to fund it any longer. So I hear what you are saying and agree.
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        • Posted by strugatsky 7 years, 10 months ago
          Completely agree with XenokRoy's assessment: "Either are likely to provoke an economic crash." Trump's stated method of "Making America Great Again" is to penalize and tax producers who look for cheaper or less regulated markets overseas. That will necessarily result in more expensive, shabbier American production. Same path as Venezuela. Trump's disembowelment of America will take longer than Bernie's, but with the same result. Perhaps a quicker death is less painful?
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          • Posted by term2 7 years, 10 months ago
            The only reason my small company is in business is that we have held prices the same by transferring 75% of our parts and assembly labor purchases to china. American workers are too expensive and the american customers dont want to pay for it. This is happening everywhere, and is a major contributor to net inflation staying low. The $15/hr wage will mean we have to cut our existing manufacturing workforce by 50% in favor of china and automation. We are madly working on automation to protect against this.

            I cant see Trump actually putting huge tariffs on buying from china- too many big companies are buying from china to withstand that. He is grandstanding with china to get them to open THEIR markets to us.

            He is proposing a lower corporate tax rate, which will be a good thing, and is saying there shouldnt be a national minimum wage (leave it to the states who will drag their feet no doubt in a race to be competitive businesswise). He does know that if you want business to remain here, we have to be competitive (which we definitely arent now).

            I can understand the desire for the quick death, BUT I dont think the death will be quick. There is just too much wealth in the USA to be expropriated by the statists quickly. Also, there are the fools like me who want to invent things that will be successful and keep them in power longer. The only way to bring down statism is NOT to prop it up by working in their system- I understand that now.
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            • Posted by strugatsky 7 years, 10 months ago
              There are very few issues on which Trump is specific. Punitive taxes and tariffs are. What he either does not realize or is refusing to admit, is that shutting out cheap foreign products will hurt American economy and the American consumer. To illustrate this, let's say someone wants to sell your son a car. But you step in, declare that the car is under priced, add 50% to the cost of the car, take the extra money from your son and give half to your daughter so that she can continue to sit at home and keep the other half to yourself for the trouble that you had to go through in order to keep peace and fairness in the family. Now, please tell me how did this enrich the family? Oh, just a reminder - macroeconomics consists of lots and lots of microeconomics. The economy needs to grow by being able to effectively and efficiently produce, not by shutting out competition I do not buy the crap about cheap labor - the reason that a one dollar / day farmer in Africa is not a threat to ten dollar / hour American farmer is because the American tractor produces 1000 times more than the African"s sickle. With a higher educated, better motivated and computer assisted workforce, we should be way outperforming semi-illiterate Third World competition, but we are not. Perhaps the solution is not more Maduro, but more Adam Smith and Bastiat.
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              • Posted by term2 7 years, 10 months ago
                I buy a lot of Chinese parts and sub assemblies for my company. I can tell you the Chinese workers are educated, careful, and produce goods equal to those made in the USA, but at 1/3 the cost. And there is no regulatory hassle. We trade worthless paper dollars for Chinese goods and labor and the dummies accept them. I have a feeling that if we backed our dollar properly, Chinese goods and services would be priced more in line with our costs. It's a very distorted market.
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                • Posted by strugatsky 7 years, 10 months ago
                  Do you mean if the dollar was valued lower than it is now?
                  Back to my point - how would making foreign products more expensive be helpful to the economy?
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                  • Posted by term2 7 years, 10 months ago
                    Yes, if the dollar was properly valued, OR we actually had to back up its value.

                    The problem is that until the chinese stop accepting our paper dollars, it makes sense to just buy from them and cancel our american jobs. At some point, they would want to sell off their dollars at some discount I suspect to at least get something for them. That could collapse the value of the dollar and instantly raise chinese prices in terms of dollars and make manufacturing here more feasible (at higher consumer prices of course reflecting the inflation that should have happened because of the fed printing money).

                    To do it slower, I suppose the government could institute tariffs on chinese goods and use the money collected as an offset to federal taxes. This would be hard to do, and politically unpopular of course, so it probably wouldnt work.

                    I suppose to soften the landing,
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                    • Posted by $ MichaelAarethun 7 years, 10 months ago
                      Money is what the majority will accept in exchange for their work and is accepted by others in exchange for their needs of the day. Wealth is money in excess of current need. It could be intrinsic more likely is not. Faith standard? doesn't exist. Credit standard? doesn't exist, Fear Standard that works and so does accepting everyone else's lies.

                      How long that will work is problematic. But for the moment the lie to yourself and others standard is far better than faith and credit and fear.
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                      • Posted by term2 7 years, 10 months ago
                        Very scary scenario. Value of the dollar could literally disappear overnight leaving me bankrupt instantly I suppose. Perhaps I should stock up onfood, water, and toilet paper...
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                        • Posted by strugatsky 7 years, 10 months ago
                          If the economy collapses, similar to Baltimore, there will be a possibility of a civil war. In that case, the paper currency will be essentially valueless. But stocking up on food, etc., will really not get you very far. Unless you have a warehouse of food, fuel and everything else, a few weeks of supplies is about all that is reasonable to keep around. If you have a warehouse, you better have a small and reliable little army to defend it. Until that happens, if you're wondering what will the Chinese do with our paper? - buy American real estate. A very effective control mechanism and a good strategic investment.
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                          • Posted by term2 7 years, 10 months ago
                            Invisibility will be of paramount importance to avoid conflict. Beyond that, defense will be required to maintain better than a subsistence lifestyle. Silver coins will be important for barter. Solar power and solar hot water will be important as well as a full pool for water. Life will be very difficult for awhile
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                          • Posted by term2 7 years, 10 months ago
                            I think there would likely be a civil war between the entitled welfare babies and the people who have prepared. The government will be overwhelmed and unable to supply what the entitled people want. The government will turn on the people who have supplies and try to expropriate them
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                            • Posted by $ MichaelAarethun 7 years, 10 months ago
                              And just think. All the while they will still be shipping food out of the country and supposedly stocking up food banks. have to keep those bull shit starving children stories going..(Not to appear heartless but if they are true why? If they are not why?)
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                        • Posted by $ MichaelAarethun 7 years, 10 months ago
                          wouldn't hurt when Recession II hits there is bound to be hiccup in the food etc. distribution system and the pricing will have to up or down settle into place. All part of life under the cycle of economic repression. They'll devalue your money at the very least like last time , screw the retirees and old people and blame it on ...hmmmm Iran, NK, Venezuela, Canada whose up at bat this time? Little debt repudiation meaning once again they are not going count the devaluation as part of COLA Ho hum just what the public wanted. I'm stocking up on salsa an tacos.
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              • Posted by $ MichaelAarethun 7 years, 10 months ago
                The unanswered question? Who loses? If you pay the in country price the regular production and sales chain wins. If you pay the price with the punitive tariff the government wins.

                Who loses?

                The amount the consumer has to pay EXTRA t get the less expensive vehicle does not go any number of businesses that would have benefited. Instead it goes to government waste. Multiply that by number of tarried or punitive taxed vehicles sold or any other product the total is the same amount that could have gone to other purposes. College educations, charities, paying off debts, buying other products.

                It's not rocket science it's Chapter 11 Economics in One lesson Henry Hazlitt.

                And it doesn't require a degree or paying tuition for lectures that leave that little fact out. If you didn't get that training or any of the other 24 lessons your Professor and your college or university cheated you.
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    • Posted by DeanStriker 7 years, 10 months ago
      "...or will it happen with one big economic
      crash?"
      Yes that's it. I thought it would have already
      happened! How much longer can they
      play the put-off game?
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      • Posted by lrshultis 7 years, 10 months ago
        The USA will probably go out with a whimper as congress turns more and more regulation over to bureaus rather than having congress spend time thinking and debating about how far they can go in the herding of the masses without losing their cushy jobs. In most cases, the regulated do not care to consider what is happening with their liberty.
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      • Posted by lrshultis 7 years, 10 months ago
        The USA will probably go out with a whimper as congress turns more and more regulation over to bureaus rather than having congress spend time thinking and debating about how far they can go in the herding of the masses without losing their cushy jobs. In most cases, the regulated do not care to consider what is happening with their liberty.
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      • Posted by term2 7 years, 10 months ago
        Look at Venezuela though. They have put it off for a LONG time already and its not over yet. We havent even gotten to military rule here in the USA yet. Our government is expert at stretching the rubber band. They have printed trillions of dollars and the dollar is still strong with nearly zero interest rate.

        Something will upset the applecart, and the government will put controls on us to prevent us from protecting ourselves I am sure. But WHAT will go wrong and what will they do? That is the question I am struggling with.
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        • Posted by AMeador1 7 years, 10 months ago
          The problem is the government is changing how they calculated GDP, Inflation, unemployment, etc... to give a false positive reality. The numbers are bad when looking at it honestly. Look at http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_... and their other data on many other stats.

          Also, they are already changing banking regulations that are putting your ability to move money around difficult. There are regulations in place allowing banks/government to take assets in case of bank failures, etc...

          I think we are one strong crash away from major government intervention at our own peril.
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          • Posted by term2 7 years, 10 months ago
            I can remember back in the Nixon and Ford days when inflation got to about 18%. The government passed all kinds of laws restricting price raises, wage raises, etc. When the arabs raised the price of oil, all of a sudden there was a shortage of gasoline (probably due to some government price controls no doubt), and then we had odd-even days when you could fill your tank, stupid 55 mph speed limits, etc.

            I look carefully at Venezuela to see what creative government policies they are using to hide whats happening, as they will probably be used here too. ALL BETS ARE OFF NOW when the government is in protective mode.
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            • Posted by AMeador1 7 years, 10 months ago
              I have a little recollection of the gas restrictions. I recall being in line one time when my dad was getting gas. I was born very early 1970's so I think I was maybe 4. ;)

              The states from the link I posted say inflation rate right now is using the method pre 1980 are actually at around 9%. Unemployment is at around 22%. GDP is at around -1.7% (yep - negative!). And we all know about the debt. We're not doing good.
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              • Posted by term2 7 years, 10 months ago
                We are definitely NOT doing good. I would agree with 10% inflation, just based on what I spend on things and how I have had to cut back on what I buy (but I still spend the same overall $$ each month). Unemployment figures dont include people who just gave up and take government money instead of working. And the wages people make havent risen. Prices have only been held down by massive shifts in supplies being bought from china ( I know this because I buy for my small company, and 75% of what I used to buy from USA companies I now buy from china in order to keep our customer prices the same)

                I read somewhere that if all the government unfunded promises were applied to the total wealth in the country, we would be bankrupt already. Its just that all the unfunded promises done have to be lived up to immediately.
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                • Posted by AMeador1 7 years, 10 months ago
                  Yeah, when I was reading this site and looking into how these things are actually calculated, part of the way they used to calculate inflation was based on the increase in price to buy particular products compared to the price change over time. They then changed it so that they could substitute other lower quality - similar products in place of more expensive one's to maintain a flatter cost. So, like you said, if you buy premium coffee grounds for your coffee and the prices just keep getting higher, to stay in budget you give in and a buy a mid-grade coffee ground. Since you kept the same cost in place and still got your coffee, no inflation is shown. Yet, your quality of life has dropped. I see this too. We keep lowering standards, cutting things from the buy list, etc... and are spending the same. So inflation by current measures is flat and near zero. Of course this benefits the government as they don't have to pay more in SS wages due to inflation - but it is stalling pay increases in work places and keeping interest rates low - which is double hitting the elderly on SS and anyone else trying to save. It's a mess.
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                  • Posted by term2 7 years, 10 months ago
                    Absolutely. Its stealing, really. The government (and the wall street people who buy off the government) gets to spend the printed dollars first, while they are valuable. Then as the prices rise, the rest of us have to fend for ourselves with less valuable dollars.

                    Another factor to consider which has worked to our government's advantage is the shift to buying things from china. This has saved companies (like ours) many dollars so we dont have to raise our prices and further hide the real inflation. Without inflation, we could lower our prices after saving money on purchases from china. The government has cheated us all by depriving us of lower prices. In fact, they hate what they call deflation, even when its caused by buying from china or increased efficiencies that we achieve through our own efforts.
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  • 10
    Posted by ISank 7 years, 10 months ago
    The sanders campaign is sadly interesting in that it is bringing simpletons the idea of socialism and say yea that sounds good and will work. And so I ask them how many lives? And the reply is oh but this is different. I reply again, look at Venezuela and I ask how many lives till you'll figure out it does not work?
    Hasn't anyone an appreciation for history?

    It's a beautiful day, aloha,
    iSank
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  • Posted by philosophercat 7 years, 10 months ago
    Ayn Rand understood the psychology of the socialists and gave Mr. Thomson the words of hate of the productive and good for being good and productive. " Brother you asked for it" Franciso
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  • Posted by Herb7734 7 years, 10 months ago
    This story is repeated over and over and over until it gets to the point where a rational observer either gets bored or sick. How many "I told you so" comments can you make before your tongue breaks? Venezuela is another example of what happens when a government turns left. The further it turns, the lower it falls until you wind up with Chaves morphing into Maduro who will eventually devolve into Mao or Pol Pot.
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  • Posted by plusaf 7 years, 10 months ago
    Damn!
    I just saw that one via MSN and Edge... and came her to link it! Great find and link.

    So, I'll just copy the text I used to post that link to my Facebook page...

    "Dear Maduro... It's not Washington or your 'bourgeoisie' that's screwing up your country...
    It's the fucking President of your country.

    You are a socialist asshole of the highest level, making Bernie Sanders look like a Conservative.

    NOTHING you propose to 'fix your problems' will work.

    They will only make it worse until your countrymen rise up and depose you and realize that socialism NEVER succeeds in Delivering on its alleged "promises," and other solutions do.

    So STFU with your blame game and, if you really want to Help, follow the suggestion John Galt made in Atlas Shrugged: "Get out of [our] way!"
    And read the book, too, if you're literate."
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  • Posted by $ 7 years, 10 months ago
    You can’t make this stuff up!

    “’When I talk about Democratic socialist, I’m not looking at Venezuela. I’m not looking at Cuba. I’m looking at countries like Denmark and Sweden,’ Sanders said.”

    “He was pressed anew last week during a debate hosted by Univision, where moderators unearthed a 30-year-old clip showing Sanders praising Cuban dictator Fidel Castro.”(!) (That would have been about 1986, decades after Castro had cemented power in his communist hellhole.)

    “The current Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro entered the fray this week, praising Sanders at an event in the Venezuelan capital, Caracas, that commemorated ‘Anti-Imperialism Day.’ Sanders ‘is an emerging candidate with a renovating and revolutionary message,’ Maduro said on Wednesday.”

    “’People tend to think of the negative examples with socialism,’ said Anna Garcia, 29, a Sanders supporter. ‘I think we have to just teach people the positive.’”

    http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/cuban-vene...
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    • Posted by Temlakos 7 years, 10 months ago
      I'm surprised Univisión (you-knee-vee-ZYOWN) actually pressed Sanders on any of this. Unless they're just shilling for Hillary. That's the sort of question Donald Trump would ask.

      Besides, go ahead and look at Denmark and Sweden. Dull, gray lives, and probably just one brain drain away from a Venezuela-like collapse.
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  • Posted by Temlakos 7 years, 10 months ago
    Yes, that does rather call to mind Directive 10-289. In fact, you have here a People's State. All it needs to make the allusion complete, is Ragnar Danneskjöld seizing a few American "relief cargoes" and selling them to the Venezuelan rebels for gold, which he then would ship to a literal Gulch.
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  • Posted by ObjectiveAnalyst 7 years, 10 months ago
    Hello CBJ,
    The sad truth is that there are people everywhere that still believe production and prosperity can come from the point of a gun... that producers will go on doing their best as serfs. History repeats.
    Respectfully,
    O.A.
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    • Posted by $ 7 years, 10 months ago
      Hi O.A.,
      True, but usually those in charge are not so blatant about what they're doing. It's almost like Maduro has read Atlas Shrugged and is doing his best to emulate the villains.
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  • Posted by $ AJAshinoff 7 years, 10 months ago
    Took long enough. I had a friend whose family was trapped in Venezuela while he, as student in CA, was locked out in the US. Chavez seized their ancestral estate, their business, and froze all their assets.

    I've lost touch with him over the years. I often wonder when I see these headlines how he and his family are doing.
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  • Posted by maxgeoac 7 years, 10 months ago
    Interesting to see that Ayn Rand was right about a civilization falling into decay. Unfortunately, Orwell was also right when he stated, "He who controls the present, controls the past. He who controls the past, controls the future." Unfortunately, our children are no longer learning history, so they are only doomed to repeat it.
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  • Posted by mcsandberg 7 years, 10 months ago
    Atlas Shrugged was supposed to be a warning, Not A Newspaper!
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    • Posted by $ 7 years, 10 months ago
      According to various sources, Venezuela has an adult literacy rate of about 95%. It might be worthwhile to promote and distribute Spanish language copies of Atlas Shrugged there (maybe under the category of historical fiction).
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  • Posted by terrycan 7 years, 10 months ago
    Great article. Most interesting was how The Polar Group stopped producing beer because of government mismanagement. It appears Atlas is shrugging in Venezuela.
    Perhaps there will be a collapse followed by renaissance.
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  • Posted by Gilles 7 years, 10 months ago
    Amazing the number of repeats this Socialist experiment has, always having the same result, yet people are baited back into it every time.
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  • Posted by $ Radio_Randy 7 years, 10 months ago
    So...why hasn't the US started sending "relief" supplies to the Peoples State of Venezuela?

    I'm surprised Big O hasn't created an executive order to bail them out.
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    • Posted by $ MichaelAarethun 7 years, 10 months ago
      Because they never stopped.

      section of the State Department's latest report...What it really amounts to who knows.

      Publications » U.S. Bilateral Relations Fact Sheets » Venezuela
      U.S. Relations With Venezuela

      Bureau of Western Hemisphere Affairs
      Fact Sheet
      July 20, 2015

      Share

      More information about Venezuela is available on the Venezuela Page and from other Department of State publications and other sources listed at the end of this fact sheet.

      U.S.-VENEZUELA RELATIONS

      Following Venezuela’s withdrawal in 1830 from its federation with Colombia, the United States established diplomatic relations with Venezuela in 1835, and has maintained a generally close relationship with Venezuela throughout most of its history. However, the U.S.-Venezuelan bilateral relationship has been tense in recent years due to a variety of policy differences.

      Venezuela’s recent presidents, the late Hugo Chavez (1999-2013) and Nicolas Maduro (inaugurated April 19, 2013), have largely defined themselves through their opposition to the United States, regularly criticizing the U.S. Government, its policies, and its relations with Latin America. President Maduro has also continued his predecessor’s policies, notably what the Government refers to as "21st Century Socialism," which is characterized by an outsized role for the executive, centralization of state command over the economy and efforts to achieve greater economic and political integration among nations in Latin America and the Caribbean. Both nations continue to maintain diplomatic relations and embassies in one another’s capitals, each headed by Chargés d’ Affaires.

      U.S. Assistance to Venezuela

      U.S. assistance to Venezuela supports the defense of human rights, the promotion of a vibrant civil society, and the strengthening of democratic institutions. Venezuela is currently subject to certain restrictions on U.S. foreign assistance.

      Since 2005, the President has annually determined that Venezuela has “failed demonstrably” to adhere to its obligations under international counter-narcotics agreements and to take certain counter-narcotics measures. The President has waived these restrictions with respect to programs that are vital to the national interests of the United States, such as human rights and civil society programs.

      Pursuant to section 40A the Department of State since 2006 has annually determined that Venezuela was “not cooperating fully” with U.S. counterterrorism efforts. Under this provision, defense articles and services may not be sold or licensed for export to Venezuela during the relevant fiscal year.

      Bilateral Economic Relations

      The United States is Venezuela's largest trading partner. Bilateral trade in goods between both countries reached $41.4 billion in 2014. U.S. goods exports to Venezuela totaled $11.1 billion, while imports from Venezuela totaled $30.2 billion. U.S. exports to Venezuela include oil machinery, organic chemicals, agricultural products, optical and medical instruments, autos and auto parts. Crude oil dominates U.S. imports from Venezuela, which is one of the top five suppliers of foreign oil to the United States. About 500 U.S. companies are represented in Venezuela. U.S. foreign direct investment in Venezuela is concentrated largely in the petroleum and manufacturing sectors.

      read the rest at

      http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/3576...

      That should answer your question.
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