Excellent analysis mm. I agree completely. The only variable is the timeline. I think Putin will want to have everything done while Obama is still in the White House. He has almost three years but my guess is he will move faster. This may be over in a year. Two years as you said is probably as fast as he can move without completely disrupting international economies.

There are several other provinces in Ukraine that have significant Russian speaking population. Some are a minority some are a majority. To Putin they give the cover of "protecting" Russians in the bad old Ukraine. Given the universal lack of response to the Russian land grab, I would give Ukraine about another 2 years of life. Even if it is not totally absorbed into Russia, what will be left will have no choice but to follow Russia's every lead. while this is going on Georgia Uzbekistan, Moldavia and the other ex-Soviet States will also be given the choice of join or be joined. Most, if not all will re-join. The only thing that might slow this down is the hatred of Russia by the muslins. They will not want to rejoin and could make it very difficult on the "stans" if they try.