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  • Posted by mia767ca 3 years, 9 months ago
    china is a crony communist country...make the term stick...they, like followers of the islamic religion, work from a basis of dishonesty and thievery...

    their charts are based on their lies...not to be trusted...
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    • Posted by  $  allosaur 3 years, 9 months ago
      I was thinking the same thing about any Chinese chart. You barely beat me with your response.
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      • Posted by mia767ca 3 years, 9 months ago
        do you know that if you buy stock in BABA that you are buying a holding company in Grand Caymans...not the company in china...i trade the short-term options in it, but that is as far as i go...same with BIDU...but at least you are buying the actual company...
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        • Posted by  $  allosaur 3 years, 9 months ago
          Thanks for the tip.
          I may try investing after I get around to figuring the taxes on a highly diversified inheritance I received.
          And some of it is already stocks and bonds and whatever.
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          • Posted by mia767ca 3 years, 9 months ago
            it will be a tough year, marketwise...start with William O'Neill's How to Make Money in Stocks...i have been trading for 10 years and average 3-4% per month return, but i only trade options which is another animal...

            i am john kelly ...mia767ca@aol.com..retired airline captain...
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            • Posted by bsmith51 3 years, 9 months ago
              Did you ever get involved in Optioneer that so many AA pilots were burned on?
              (former Captain BS)
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              • Posted by mia767ca 3 years, 9 months ago
                no...paid a master trader to teach me...a lot of money, but i am making money...today was a losing day however, but he trained me to expect that and learn to keep the losses small and let the winners run...still do not like it...but it is what you have to live with...i win on 90 out of 100 trades on average...
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            • Posted by  $  3 years, 9 months ago
              John, have you ever seen what Graham Summers at Phoenix Capital puts out? He says they have about 90% profit rate on their trades and sends out lists of stocks they traded and results. He tends to be the alarm ringer, and is currently saying "bloodbath" coming. He also keeps talking about bonds and derivatives causing huge implosion.
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              • Posted by mia767ca 3 years, 9 months ago
                there is a bond bubble...true...but have not followed Graham Summers...

                i trade both sides of the market in option credit spreads (iron condors) at 3 standard deviations..,90% probability of success and 10% of failure...i beat 90% of the funds..mutual and hedge...but i do not have to trade under their SEC rules...i do not have a series 7 license, just experience...
                if you have not read "Creature from Jekyll Island" (formation of Fed Reserve 100 years ago), i highly recommend it...
                the Fed has created a $5 trillion bubble with the big banks and has been paying them NOT to loan it out...now they have to reabsorb it...we got to within 48 hours in '08 of the ATMs being shutdown...that would have been game over and civilization collapse...how close are now...???...it is very scary...so i got up at 5 am and ran 5 miles...feeling better...
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                • Posted by  $  MichaelAarethun 3 years, 9 months ago
                  Better solution than most I''ve heard. Mexico by the way is still in dollar buying mode. Current rate after fees about 16.5 in some stores 17 is offered. current buy sell rate in the bank 17.4 and 16.4 ATM transfers (they have not tellers to disburse withdrawals only deposits and cash exchanges) about 16.9. that is limited by the daily draw imposed by the home US Bank or the capacity of the ATMs to dispense pesos. Best fees are 17.4 pesos per transaction. About $1 US.

                  This up from a year ago where benchmark was 12.5

                  Why? They need dollars to buy stuff ....like the higher priced cereal grains used to feed livestock. Another casualty of ethanol was food prices in other countries .

                  No problem with VW's or Fords or Chrysler products. There all made down here and will continue to be made down here for Mexico and the world export market. Only US Consumption Fords are moving back north. Kasich's deal of four years ago (not Trumps) didn't go any further.
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                • Posted by  $  3 years, 9 months ago
                  It is a lot of the "we almost lost Detroit" type stuff with the finance system that is most disturbing. The system is so wrapped up in computers and funny instruments you have no idea of real value any more. (We almost Lost Detroit is a book about the one and only fast breeder put into commercial service that melted down and is buried just outside Detroit). That is just way to many "almosts".
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    • Posted by  $  3 years, 9 months ago
      Well, I am not too full of trust and belief is some of the crap our own gang of thieves put out either..but maybe this is just them saying: watch out capitalist pigs...
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      • Posted by mia767ca 3 years, 9 months ago
        i have known a few capitalists...steve forbes and a multi-millionaire rancher in colorado...one inherited it from dad (Malcolm)...and the other self-made...both great individuals to know...
        also flew Gerald Ford from L.A. to NYC...he came on with his secret service group...came into the cockpit and shot the bull for 30 minutes prior to boarding everyone else...very impressed...there is lot of truth to the adage...you lay down with dogs, you get up with fleas...flew enough "famous" people who you would not want to invite into your home..
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        • Posted by  $  3 years, 9 months ago
          Indeed, I knew an elderly gent who had been a pilot in WW2 (Pacific B24) and flew with Continental through the 60s. Wonderful guy, very common sensical, and had no tolerance for the lies and stories that have become standard political fare today. he had similar stories of either really bizarre people or famous people you could actually like. Jimmy Stewart for one, when he was flying in WW2.
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          • Posted by mia767ca 3 years, 9 months ago
            my brother is a cpa...one of his clients is a gent in his 90's who flew the Berlin airlift...great guy
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            • Posted by  $  3 years, 9 months ago
              Back in the 70's I ran into a similar guy. Flew DC6's and dropped stuff to kids on approch out the window, then figured out they did not have the weight and made lots of Hershey drops. Let the Loadmaster do it all afterwards. Again, a very nice guy.
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  • Posted by peterchunt 3 years, 9 months ago
    You haven’t seen anything yet. Wait for the real big implosion to happen. It is what happens when the Government lies about its economy for too many years. Eventually it catches up with a big bang.
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    • Posted by  $  Thoritsu 3 years, 9 months ago
      That will be ugly over there, where they have little recourse for citizen-desired change and a significant monopoly on violence and control of the media in the government.
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    • Posted by  $  MichaelAarethun 3 years, 9 months ago
      What they have done is move from the International Socialist Model which holds the State owns everything to the National Socialist Model which allows private ownership and management using something called Fascist or State Economics. That particular subset states the Party will control every aspect of the private ownership in short laying a patina and a thin one at that over Marxist Economics. It is one of the very few differences between the two as it holds the 'manager or private owner' responsible for failure of government directives but does not reward success.

      In 2009 my ship's crew delivered the ship to Dailen in the Yellow Sea area for it's five year overhaul. The shipping company had failed to obtain Visas for the crew. We stayed sequestered for 30 some days on the ship at the dock while the work proceeded. No one agency would approve issuing visas in China without the approval of another or more than one other. When the company offered to pay any fines for the self confessed misdeed and any costs involved they were threatened with arrest for attempted bribery. One of the company officers attempted, with all our passports, to fly to Singapore and have the visas issued there as out of the country issue was required. He did get arrested for having 30 plus passports.Then released. Singapore Chinese embassy refused he flew to the USA and used a visa service which should have been done to begin with and returned - finally we had three days ashore and then flew back via Korea.

      Each part of the process was filled with each part of the Chinese Government national and provincial afraid to create an appearance of wrongdoing. That's how finely tuned the complete fascist control of the new capitalistic financial support system had progressed. Made some extra money though but declined to rejoin for the trip back when the ship was finished.

      Mindsets take a while to change....For them to be like the Capitalist countries of Scandinavia, New Zealand and Others who others who are not Socialist but have leanings as they can afford them for some social benefits will be driven by the transistion from bicycles to cars which has infected even the military.

      Enjoyable trip and our counterparts who spoke English were quite open about discussing most topics. Like most situations the governments are at odds the people just want to be left alone.
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      • Posted by  $  3 years, 9 months ago
        Michael, one thing I have observed is that China isd a good study in just how bad excessive government control, corruption and business corruption can get. China makes things on contract and does not follow the contract, the thing I think of is the great Mattel debacle where they used lead based paint in clear violation of the contract, and then screamed "Racist, you hate Chinese" when Mattel objected. I really try to not buy anything made there because it is inevitably crap, although you cannot avoid it. I will not buy anything for my animals from there. The parallels between the Chinese and the last 10 years of American government are really interesting. Also, I lived in Sweden in 1969 at the height of Olaf Palme, and a more Socialist regime you could not imagine, they have since backed off when the Liberals almost bankrupted them with the giveaways, but even then the Swedes loved him, because he gave everything away. One reason I do not like Bernie at all, buying votes with my money you have stolen is not the best way to my good side.
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        • Posted by  $  MichaelAarethun 3 years, 9 months ago
          True my hope is that China will move towards Capitalism faster than we are moving away from it. Poetic Justice if their was a switch but that's reading to much in the one month experience. I will say one thing. When we did get to walk around Dailen, freely and unescorted, it was amazingly like a combination of San Francisco and Oakland minus the crime and with double the commerce right down to commercial, retail enterprises many of whom were setting up internet sales systems even back then. The grasp of capitalism and free market economics while not complete seem to surpass those in any of our cities. Our main guide made an off hand remark that astounded me. "We have realized someone has to pay for everything and the old system did not fill nor fit our goals. So we kept some parts and borrowed from others more successful. Hong Kong has been a great teacher. I had jotted that down within a few minutes so it's not exact but fairly accurate.

          Education is a big deal. To be assigned to our ship maintenance and refit project the managere had atteded a full degree program in structural engineering, a second in marine engineering applications and a third in Business Management.As I recall about eight or nine years at 35 he had been working in his field for five or six years. He was not from the coastal area but from Inner Mongolia. He explained the government still assigns people to where they are needed. We have no idea what schools if any nor where we will work ....
          .
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    • Posted by Abaco 3 years, 9 months ago
      Yeah, it's interesting. They really have been pro-business in China. However, the blanket of communism still stifles it. It could get very ugly there soon.
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  • Posted by wiggys 3 years, 9 months ago
    The Chinese government is no different than the US government, they think or don't think that they are the source of employment. It is a hard lesson for all governments to accept which is that they are the primary problem in causing down turns in the economy's of their respective countries. As the song says"when will they ever learn"; they will not. China is probably getting very disparate because we are also a failing economy, their biggest client. But with the saudis being attacked that may cause us to escalate our warring activities which will cause more purchasing of warring materials from US plants.
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    • Posted by  $  MichaelAarethun 3 years, 9 months ago
      That's how the cycle works....and when there are no countries left you build them up until they are worth attacking. Left wing politics and economics at it's darkest finest.
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  • Posted by Abaco 3 years, 9 months ago
    Just glancing at that chart...it's not too bad, really. The same chart for the US would probably be worse. I know the GDP curve would be.
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    • Posted by  $  3 years, 9 months ago
      Indeed, that's why we never see our own...at least not referenced to the Job offers.
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      • Posted by Abaco 3 years, 9 months ago
        But seriously...this chart isn't very bad. Just look at the numbers, scales, how the lines lay. This is a chart spooky to people who don't know how to read charts. I read charts for a living and, after mulling the layout for about 5 seconds I just went, "meh...nothing notable here". I see this a lot in finance writing these days - charts used to scare readers and support a headline. But, if you look at the data it's all sizzle, no steak, often.
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        • Posted by  $  3 years, 9 months ago
          Abaco, I think the point to consider isd the divergence after 2010. There is a huge upswing in offers to people in urban areas, vs a negative trend in GDP. So, why do you need to offer jobs to anyone when you are slowing down? In addition, the reference to the rural community is that if all the money is going into urban job offers, what is left to the huge bulk of the poulation that live in rural areas. They seem to be splitting into a country that will have a small group of well paid employees and a huge number of poorly paid rural people, meaning a stage is set for unrest. A billion pissed off people can cause a lot of unrest. Thats the thing I am seeing. That and maybe there is a buttload of money being made up and funneled to the cities for jobs that do not exist?
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  • Posted by  $  jbrenner 3 years, 9 months ago
    That chart still looks pretty good to me.
    If you superimposed the same chart for America, you would see how positive that chart is for China.
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  • Posted by  $  MichaelAarethun 3 years, 9 months ago
    Wants a bit of explaining from some of our financial people. As for GDP when I hear that I sort of feel compelled t say "That's nice but what is NDP?"
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    • Posted by  $  3 years, 9 months ago
      Uh, I don't think there is an economist anywhere who will touch that subject. If you had to explain the debt load the US carries, then people might wake up.
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      • Posted by  $  MichaelAarethun 3 years, 9 months ago
        That group? Not until the welfare checks bounce.
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        • Posted by  $  3 years, 9 months ago
          Which they won't even if they pay it in fiat credits or whatever they think up next. Especially now they basically use debit cards, where there is all the room in the world for fraud.
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          • Posted by  $  MichaelAarethun 3 years, 9 months ago
            The first one in oregon was called the Oregon Trails Card and was supposed to provide dignity over using food stamps. they were supposed to reject certain items such as alcohol and prepared foods. Of course stores that refused food stamps refused the Oregon Trails Card. Last I heard they were going to add on the VISA style Merchants fee at Discover Card rates with cash back to the State. Another sales tax in a state with no sales tax. That's when I left California North for the USA. It did nothing to stop people using their credit to buy non-blocked items for 50% cash back from the neighbor or passer by.
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