A short course in counter-terror theory

Posted by $ jdg 8 years, 3 months ago to Politics
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Strategic thinking by a friend whom I consider expert.
SOURCE URL: http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=6943


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  • Posted by DrZarkov99 8 years, 3 months ago
    One big missing piece: carve the heart out of the evil, decisively and with malice. ISIS has built a fantasy about a holy war that will be final in an ultimate battle between the warriors of Allah and the infidel armies of the world in a little town in Syria. Rather than let this infected boil of lies fester and grow, I say challenge ISIS to Armageddon! Set a day when we will engage them at the appointed location, and challenge them to make their prophecy come true. If they back down, their myth will collapse, and the allure will fade. If they rise to the occasion, it will draw them into one location, where they can be pulverized, for all the faithful to witness as to the lie of their sham.
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  • Posted by $ MikeMarotta 8 years, 3 months ago
    Thanks. That was interesting, insightful, and well-written. Allow me offer an amendment: "3. More armed civilians and the elimination of “gun-free zones”. (This has been tested and found effective in Israel. In the wake of San Bernardino we are beginning to see police organizations recommend it.)"

    Israel has strict gun control. It takes about two months to get a license, and certified training is part of the process. All the guns in Israel do not stop suicide bombers.

    When I heard the news about San Bernardino, I, too, wished that those innocents had been armed. But, then, I reconsidered. In the 2012 Empire State Building shootings, nine people were wounded by police bullets. And the police actually practice with their weapons.
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    • Posted by $ Radio_Randy 8 years, 3 months ago
      As a gun owner and former military member, I would suggest that, had other employees in San Bernardino been armed, the outcome likely would have been much the same. Semiautomatic pistols and revolvers don't stand much of a chance against semiautomatic rifles. I recall a recent situation where an armed man walked into a diner and killed 4 armed police officers before they could even return fire.

      Now, saying that...I solidly believe that those people should have been allowed to have been armed. Regardless of the outcome, at least they could have had some control over their final destinies. Without firearms, they were helpless pawns.
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    • Posted by $ blarman 8 years, 3 months ago
      Israel's problem, however, is proximity. If America weren't an entire ocean away, I'll bet that we'd be seeing similar issues - or that we'd be neck deep in actual military conflict. Israel actually stops a lot of incidents from happening - you just don't hear about those because most of the people who are dangerous get preemptively incarcerated because they engage in lesser forms of violence and threats first.

      I would also point out, however, that every single Israeli citizen gets conscripted into the military for at least two years - including women. Then they take their service weapons home. So every single Israeli citizen is well-trained in both armed and hand-to-hand combat. The majority of the attacks are conducted in stealth, and most happen in certain areas which are easier to get to from the West Bank and Gaza - where the Palestinians live.
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      • Posted by Technocracy 8 years, 3 months ago
        Switzerland is similar in regards armed and trained citizenry. When they leave the service they keep their weapons as well. Shooting is also something of a national sport there.
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    • Posted by Lucky 8 years, 3 months ago
      In Australia, a gun permit is obtained with great difficulty (not personal experience).
      Yet a 15 yo Islamist punk gets a gun and kills a police accountant, an Iranian refugee gets a gun and shoots up a central Sydney coffee shop. etc.
      I am not sure what all this proves, maybe gun control is not strict enough, or, maybe does not work.
      Proper immigration control would help.
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      • Posted by DrZarkov99 8 years, 3 months ago
        The international black market in arms is thriving. Criminals will have access to guns no matter how hard misguided bureaucrats make it for legal acquisition of firearms. Only a worldwide ban on gun ownership, rigorously enforced by a global police state, will have a chance of shutting down access to guns.
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  • Posted by $ MichaelAarethun 8 years, 3 months ago
    Excellent post as it brings the modern day (mid fifties to 911) information up to date. I would add the following.

    Age old definiiton 1. Purpose of Terrorism is to Terrorize.

    AOD 2. There is no such thing as innocent bystanders.

    AOD3 They aren't criminal acts they are revolutionary acts such as 'expropriation' instead of 'bank robberies.'

    The modern day political terrorists EXCEPT the Islamic version follow a strategy (C. Marighella) designed to allow a small, ill equipped, under funded and initially not popular movement to take on a vastly superior opponent especially in countries with many civil liberties and freedoms.

    This is the circle or cycle of repression. But it works with modifications for other sorts of terrorists as well. One group has the motto never let a good crisis go to waste. That's a government that switches roles and wishes to implement strict controls and dump civil liberties. Another is the Islamics who add a dimension of expecting to be killed or killing themselves as a tactic.

    The basic cycle follows a rule that says never repeat the same target, tactic, or technique.

    Group T for example robs a bank and doesn't kill anyone then distributes the money in a poor neighborhood. Next time it's a supermarket type store again distributing the food.. In an affluent neighbor hood it's a bomb in any situation where it will produce mass casualties. Or perhaps high jacking an aircraft or next maybe shipping a parcel on a bus. Each act is followed up by telephoned or emailed or snail mailed threats or just items such as crop duster and anthrax formulas left lying around.

    The government of course reacts normally as stated treating it as a criminal activity. First time around....not much change. Second time the citizens start yelling for protection. Third time they demand it. Fourth time they not knowing when or where or how the fifth time will occur the get real incensed at the government not the terrorists who might be busy giving away food at the supermarket for a change of pace..

    The government each time says ok fine but we'll have to tighten up on some civil liberties.and each time that screw gets tightened more and more. Road side stops, random searches, surveillance of communications, control of certain commodities such as weapons, complete body searches before boarding aircraft except aircraft are not targeted anymore. It's a city bus next time.

    The goal is shifting blame from the terrorist group and their political agenda to blaming the government for their new police state posture. Until ideally they are voted out and a more friendly group of politicians voted in.

    A government in the bad guy role takes advantage of all opportunities to become the new police state.

    Jihadist type is causing mass fear on the one side, a willingness to give up freedoms and civil rights on the other, and a defeatist attitude throughout the country which also has a vocal element screaming about methods such as profiling and of course an all to willing media to help out..

    It's a never ending cycle with no predictability. That's on purpose except for the random whackos but that helps anyway.

    How, for example do you feel about going to the high school basketball game - remember the movie Carrie?

    Some bring items in country. but that's mostly a diversion as is the emphasis on weapons control. There isn't much that cannot be puchased and made locally. Funny part is most of that was not well known until one of our Presidents made it readily available byi mass downgrading of security levels - which is the probable source of McVeigh's device. Compliments of the US Government Printing Office and still available today by downloading.

    As far as organization goes most won't last and for the same reasons criminal organizations won't last. Really bad security. But if an additional T is added to Target, Technique, Tactics, we'll call it Team and each team is completely independent it makes it really tough for the good guys especially if they are a. funded b. equipped and c. have little or no contact with the other groups.

    On the other hand as we've seen their best protection is PC.

    How to protect yourself and your family...I'm sure more posts will follow but the bad news is there is no good news if the assailants are well trained and choose targets and techniques as mentioned above. Always randomly different.

    Right now there is one prime target coming up that is being prepared for. Not the inauguration although that is for sure on the list but the State of The Union Address. Nothing will be spared to ensure security when the bulk of government is in one room.

    Not so for your high school basketball game...

    The dangers are giving up too much in the way of freedoms and rights in trade for a very low level of protection and as we've seen might take four or five decades to get back AND ham stringing the effort to identify an interdict. The sure way on that is cut the head off the snake. Identify, locate, neutralize the leadership AND its support mechanisms.

    Not by spinning tires and pissing off the population which is a sure sign of either impotence and inability or a tacit admission of wanting the situation to continue for other reasons. Either way the terrorist leadership will make it look as negative as possible and with the current media posture that is soooooooooooooo easy.

    The start point is...it's here we're stuck with the problem. That should drive your selection come voting day except....heh heh heh there really isn't a good candidate for this sort of thing. Nor for Congress from what I've seen. Might want to think that one through one more time....
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    • Posted by $ MikeMarotta 8 years, 3 months ago
      I will have to dig out my research on this, but I have links and papers demonstrating that if 5% of the people support peaceful change, it happens. Violent opposition routinely fails.
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      • Posted by $ 8 years, 3 months ago
        If that were true, why has pot been illegal for 81 years? You're not going to convince me that 95% ever supported that law staying in place.
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        • Posted by $ MikeMarotta 8 years, 3 months ago
          Passive opinions do not change laws and certainly not whole societies. If 5% of Americans took to the streets to non-violently protest the laws, those laws would change. See my comment to JLC above about the research of Erica Chenoweth, et al.
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      • Posted by $ MichaelAarethun 8 years, 3 months ago
        Link that to the governments need to include wars in their cycle of economic repression. There is a need for major red herrings and ringing the bells of patriotism and altruism as part of the smoke and mirrors section and once started it seems to take on a life of it's own. This time the over the horizon promise changed into seven non stop years so far and switched into a new arena before the old one was finished. Precisely because five percent didn't demand peaceful change and their civil rights but gave up their civil rights and freedoms for an illusion of safety.

        Your five percent system while welcome might find it's biggest threat is the government itself.
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    • Posted by $ jlc 8 years, 3 months ago
      Interesting point, MichaelA, of shifting the blame from 'the people who caused it' to 'the government that was supposed to protect me'.

      'Avoiding crowds' is the only protection I can think of. Unfortunately, I do go to movies, which are prime targets.

      Jan
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  • Posted by sfdi1947 8 years, 3 months ago
    Something too many people and analysts miss is the simple equation of Terror or Asymmetrical Warfare. Real aggressive war is, according to Tom Clancy, "Grand Theft writ large."
    Asymmetrical Warfare and Terror are less destructive, as a comparison to real conventional war and definitively so when compared to war employing WMD. They are about Control of the peoples, and through them, of the wealth of nations. In short, its all about the money, the promotional propagandas of religion or faith or what ever are just that, promotional propaganda.
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