When 95% of the models don't accurately predict the outcome, isn't it time to try a different model?

Posted by $ blarman 12 years, 6 months ago to Science
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Or do we simply acknowledge that there is obviously more to the picture than what we can currently account for, i.e. that our refusal to admit our own ignorance is our own worst enemy!


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  • Posted by mminnick 12 years, 6 months ago
    Are there factors that are not captured in the Global Warming model? You bet. Are there data issues with the data driving the models? You bet. Are there agendas secret and otherwise? Absolutely.
    Let see now, suspect models, suspect data, and suspect motives. I'm surprised they agree as much as they do.
    Nortmally the generation of a model of the sort needed to approach the complexity of a problem like Global Warming is the work of multiple teams each focusing on certain elements of the problem and communicating constantly with the other teams. there could be as many as 100 variables needed to specify a particular data point or series of data points.
    All of the data must be analyzed and vetted prior to use. The things that must be done take incredible amounts of work. Once all of this has been assembled and validated through several stages, then the prediction can be mad.
    The predictions would be check against the real world and against other models. Variations must be examined and explained before moving on to the next set of trials.
    I will grant I don't follow the Global warming models so I cannot say for certain this protocol was not followed, but the variability between models leads me to wonder.
    And yes I do know what I’m talking about. Send me a private message if you want credentials.
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  • Posted by Bobhummel 12 years, 6 months ago
    Approximately 96% of the greenhouse effect in our atmosphere is caused by one compound in the atmosphere. This compound is specifically exempted in the Kyoto accords for a very simple reason. They can't do anything about it. That compound is water vapor. Water vapor is capable of hold vast amounts of thermal energy. It explains why the temperature only drops from a high of 89 degrees in the day to 80 degrees at night in New Orleans but will drop from 110 degrees in the heat of the day to near freezing at night in Death Valley. The difference is the specific humidity (mg H2O/ cubic cm). The greater amount of water vapor, the great the amount of thermal energy in the air. THa is why we engineering nerds use steam as an efficient method of transferring chemical or nuclear thermal energy into mechanical and electrical energy. Like all good things - It's all physics!

    The whole climate change "industry" is build on the foundation of lies created to destroy capitalism and support statist control.
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  • Posted by richrobinson 12 years, 6 months ago
    Global warming is a hoax. We are have the worst winter we have had in years. Of coarse we are told it is consistent with Global Warming. Blah...
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