The Robots of Labor Day
Many fear of robots taking our jobs. But I say on Labor Day celebrate that robots make labor more valuable & could usher in a new age of prosperity & flourishing!
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There have also been other psychological studies which link the amount of time an infant spends with their mother up to age two has a dramatic effect on their behaviors for the remainders of their lives.
I think we as humans will cease to be humans when we stop caring about our offspring to the point that we attempt to outsource those responsibilities.
the best setup I ever saw was an in house union where every employee was in from CEO on down but no newbies nor any one in management or supervision could be an employees association officer. From day one we referred to the product as 'my' product that 'I' made. Every pay day we got to buy into the company if we wished to do so. I think they got bought out but I kept my address current because of the stocks. A few splits and a few decades later it was worth the trouble.
The others I just went mercenary. Did the job right and walked away with no further thought until the next shift.
That was while I was not in the military of course. There we were coerced into buying savings bonds on what would have been a RICO' violation anywhere else in most of their units the exception was my home regiment. We just ignored the rest of the pentagon as much as possible.
After GM moved its IT department here to Austin, I heard their VP for IT speak to a technology breakfast. He boasted that GM had 14 consecutive profitable quarters for the first time in its history. I was underwhelmed. In 100 years, they never had 3-1/2 good years in a row, even when what was good for General Motors was good for America. GM was founded as the largest capitalization in history at that time. They had some virtues, and virtuous people, but GM, largely (ha, "largely") was always a brontosaurus. Now, Ford, being still controlled by the Ford family was more successful for obvious reasons.
Mostly, it is a matter of culture. The farther you are from Detroit, the more an automotive factory looks like a real workplace. I was in a Ford factory in Detroit where the supervisors really looked like the Production Police. They had blue uniforms with blue ties and radios clipped to their collars. And they walked around just looking for trouble. At Kentucky Truck in Louisville, it was more like the Toyota plant in Lexington. At Twin Cities Assembly, I met a young mechanical engineer and his buddy. Both were union apprentices, and together they had full charge for a little process line, and as long as it worked, no cared how they did it. I never saw supervisor. In fact, at Kentucky Truck, if I wanted a foreman, I had to go find one or call for one on the radio. Culture matters.
Well managed businesses do not fail! Companies fail because the people in charge lose focus. They try to live in a past that has moved on and competitors who move with the changes eat them alive.
And that is where lobbyists come in - their job is to convince politicians to lock things where they are so CEOs can stop thinking/working and enjoy the millions they are being paid. RR executives watched truckers take ever larger portions of their businesses and all they did was whine about it being unfair that trucks got to drive on roads someone else paid for while RRs had to maintain their own tracks.
As to individual jobs, we all have to be prepared to continue learning - the world is such that you can't simply freeze everything so that nothing changes (Anthem), it just will not work that way. From what little I know about T&D makers, I think they are skilled craftsmen. If that is right, then they are capable of learning a new skill if that is what is required. We can not reasonably think that we have reached a point where the world will hold steady so that we can stop being aware of what is happening around us.
In reality their is no guarantee that you or I find a viable niche. We simply use our gifts to maximal effect we can. It never turns out well to attempt to legislate reality into something else.
Personally, if I have both my needs met and time on my hands I can think of countless interesting and exciting and some valued by others things to do. I certainly shan't be bored. And note that a highly automated society is a far richer society where, modulo the tremendous cancer of government coercion and predation today, it is increasingly trivial to met all the needs and many of the desires of everyone regardless of whether they have a "job" and without coercion.
Dr.Wizenbaum wrote it in the 60's as a bit of a parody of artificial intelligence. He isn't a big proponent of machine intelligence. He was shocked at how quickly people 'connected' with it. His secretary asked him to leave the room when she was communicating with the program because it was 'private'.
One of my employees worked on a late night airline reservation phone bank when he was in college and there were a number of elderly people who would call in the middle of the night and talk to them because they couldn't sleep. If the call volume was low, the phone bank people would talk to them for a while before gently telling them that they had to get back to work.
So, would an anthropomorphic computer program substitute? I don't know.
As for whether someone will always have to 'feed' (maintain, program, etc.), the robots, back in 1964 when I was in ninth grade, a tool and die guy spoke to my class. "Someone has to make the machines," he said. T&D will never be put out of work by automation. He was right... for 20 or 30 years... CAD/CAM systems helped put tool and die people out work. Today we have 3D printing. It is great stuff. Bring it on. But just be cognizant of the fact that the people who benefit from it are not the same ones who are disadvantaged by it. And, yes, no one complained about the loss of T&D jobs, but only because no one noticed, except them.
In The Economy of Cities Jane Jacobs contrasted Manchester with Birmingham. To Marx and Engels, Manchester was the epitome of capitalism. The only problem was that it was a one-trick pony: all they did was weave. On the other hand, Birmingham was under-appreciated for its centuries-long tradition of manufacturing diversity. That was why Selgin could sing the praises of the Birmingham button makers who gave us modern coinage.
It is only now in our time, say from Gen-X , that people have been raised in an economic environment where they understand that you cannot have one job for life. We went through that in the 90s. Just as all that Deming quality stuff was blooming, so was down-sizing. The unemployed became entrepreneurs, one way or another.
Myself, I have always been independent, working as a contractor. (Kawasaki above was one or two full time direct employments. The other was 20 years earlier. Both lasted exactly 1 year and 50 weeks.) I also have more than one trade. And I take on new challenges easily and leave old markets behind. But all of that was from having read Atlas Shrugged and the rest as a teenager. In fact, it was a statement from Howard Roark in the The Fountainhead that with, say, only 60 productive years ahead, why would he want to do any other work but what he enjoyed?
http://www.intuitivesurgical.com/
So-called "robot surgery" is over 30 years old. In 1991-1993, teaching programming to Ford Motor Company electricians for Kawasaki Robotics, I showed a promotional video that included a PUMA robot positioning an instrument for brain surgery. That was a true robot. The Da Vinci seems not to be, but, rather, is only a complex manipulator, a "waldo". A real robot runs a program, and like all computers, they can alter their operation based on inputs and decisions. At the last robot trade show I attended back in 1995, KRI had two of their new robots connected to a vision system solving a Rubik's Cube.
OK, I'll share one since you mentioned spread sheets. In the fall of 1973 I was working for a large corporation in a tiny, but brand new, research department experimenting with our custom built microprocessor system to perform some rather simple process monitoring tasks on injection molding machines. It was based on the fairly new Motorola 6800 chip set and we designed our own boards and wrote all our own code in assembly language. Anyway, I was young at the time and was with the company for a little more than a year and was quite enamored by this innovative little computer (I was also a Star Trek fan and excitedly thought "Here we go and I'm part of it!"). I got an idea I took to our management and suggested we modify the process monitor board into a table top computer and write programs so the accountants can have their own machines to track inventory and other data and secretaries can type letters and forms on a CRT (that's Cathode Ray Tube to you young folks, which now days is called a monitor) and won't need to fool with white-out when they make a mistake. Yes, I described a computer based spread sheet and word processor before they were officially invented. Managements reply was: "Nobody is going to spend that much money on a glorified calculator and the company isn't going to spend what it would take to make one". Yeah, at the time a Motorola 6800 chip set cost over $200 so I felt I understood what they were saying. Also, inexpensive mass storage for such an endeavor would have been a tough problem to overcome at the time. Apple was born in a garage a few years later when the chip set price was about $25, Radio Shack's TRS80 a few years after that when the floppy disk prices came down and the IBM PC came out around 1981. History indicates I had a great idea, but the cost of that tech in '73 wouldn't let it happen at that time.
Japan is actively developing and marketing robotic aids for seniors. With the aging of the baby boomers we have to find a way to take care of a lot of people.
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