yes WI

Not sure what world you live in. What I've seen is several years of bailouts and fiat money printing.

The effects of the economic global earthquake hasn't quite hit us as yet, so grab onto something stable and get under something safe, it'll be here soon enough. In WW2 when the big bombardments started booming away, soldiers tended to lose their lunch and their bowels. So folks, shut your mouth and clench your buttocks we may not be able to avoid the big boom. (The GIs actually said, "Keep a tight a-hole").

Ah, got it. You were referring to CircuitGuy. Sorry, got lost.

star, cg is a libertarian. He also lives in an area of the country that is doing well economically. It is a state capital and home to a major university with lots of government dollars flowing through. It boasts lower than national avg on unemployment and 9th in the nation for high tech jobs. Madison is doing well comparatively.

they are referring to cg.

Are you referring to me? I'm not sure I follow your line of reasoning.

In what way? Please explain your thoughts.

G'morning Robbie, I'm afraid you need to remember which "choir" he sings in. He may need a user name change. May I suggest "Larson"?

My unreliable crystal ball says continued growth. We have several years of US GDP growth and stock market growing above average, both real and nominal.

I think he's drinking far too much Liberal Kool-Aid.

Would be curious to see what real growth you are referring to, as all the economists I have read are pointing to the economy and comparing price-to-earnings ratios of stocks and declaring them as overvalued. GDP growth is sluggish - even last year barely cleared 1%. That's below average - not above. Even average growth is >2% and great growth is 3%+.

The other problem is the growing debt and its drag on tax funds. What we take for granted right now is that the only reason we can afford the debt we already have is absurdly low interest rates and the games the Fed is playing. If interest rates rise a few points, suddenly our obligations to debt service start crowding out other government services. This is a snowball with only one destination.

I wouldn't put any money in the stock market except as short sales or calls. The reason so much money is going there is because bond rates don't even cover inflation and the housing market is still on eggshells - most mortgage holders are still holding large quantities of toxic mortgages. They just can't dump them all on the market at the same time without it collapsing. Investors have no place to put their money, because they can't reinvest in their businesses due to the uncertainties involved with the ACA.

And have you seen the estimated crop reports for this year? Many areas of the nation - including California - are facing serious water shortfalls, meaning shorter growing seasons and less fruit.

Do I know what can be done about it? Sure, but none of it would pass Congress or the President right now.

My advice: buckle up - it's going to be a bumpy ride. And when the US falters, the whole world is going to feel the effects.

When you figure out how to get a majority of the people to understand what you are saying and you get a quarter of those people to want to do something to avoid this coming mess (and it IS coming), I'll jump in the boat with you.

I absolutely know you are right. This is going to happen. The question is what to do about it?

The Story of Atlas Shrugged was about a time such as we see these evolving into under a totalitarian government. Yes. This very well may be the doorway we see at the end of the garden path we are strolling down. The door is two, perhaps three steps away - those days and those men are upon us - like Atlas, all WE can do is to shrug.

looking forward to it. Keep us up to date

I mentioned it in my recent piece on straightlinelogic. State directed credit systems usually come to tears, and we may be close in China. What is also interesting is that the new regime appears to be stepping up its repression of the citizenry. That may be an early warning sign that they expect trouble. Growth is slowing and financial stress is increasing. Definitely a good idea to keep an eye on China. The website zerohedge has had some excellent pieces on China, talking about things the MSM don't, except for occasional tangential references from the WSJ. I'll post the next good ZH piece on China I see to the Gulch.

Straight, what is your take on China?

Global depression is the smart money bet. It will be blamed on all sorts of things, but it will boil down to growth rates in total debt that have exceeded global economic growth rates for many years. The whole point of "accepted" monetary and fiscal policies for the past 100 years is to allow people to consume more than they produce, borrowing against the future. Fiat money, fractional reserve banking, derivatives, and government debt and guarantees of private debt have fueled the greatest world wide debt bubble in history. I've talked about it frequently on my website, straightlinelogic.com, and posted an article that I shared today with the Gulch on the global kleptocracy and economic meltdown, "An Offer They Can't Refuse." I traded debt and derivatives for years, and fortunately, am now out of that racket.

Thank you very interesting

These are not earlier warning signs, these are signs that the global economy is in trouble. Ne news on Friday was even worse, Dow down by 316 and down by 41 today. Add the Thursday loose and you get 527+ points down in three days. Granted not a recod drop, but a sharp drop none the less.
Hang on, its going to be a bumpy ride.

Thanks.

Read the blog article on your site. Nicely done.