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Oxi! Greece’s 9.0 Earthquake, by Robert Gore

Posted by straightlinelogic 9 years, 10 months ago to Government
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It is impossible to overstate the significance of Greece’s “Oxi,” or No vote. It puts into stark relief a simple proposition: governments propose, the citizens whose labors fund them dispose. In this case the government in question was not the Greek government, but supranational institutions: the European Commission, the European Central Bank, and the International Monetary Fund, known collectively as the Troika. It is symbolically fitting that in a simple exercise of direct democracy, voters in its cradle rejected the Troika’s proposal of rescue loans without debt relief, coupled with a package of reforms. Leaving aside questions of fair dealing—neither side has clean hands—the vote shows that the financial foundation of government does indeed rest on the consent of the governed. Beyond the immediate chaos and longer-term ramifications, it was this realization that prompted the hysterical panic, prior to the vote, of the powers that be, in Europe and beyond. After the vote, panic gives way to terror.

Not that they should be surprised. History is littered with regimes in which the productive people who were to support the rulers’ grand schemes, burdened with too much debt and taxes, said “Oxi”. The joke in the old USSR: they pretend to pay us and we pretend to work. Usually there is no vote to register the sentiment—there certainly wasn’t in the USSR—but when work is punished rather than rewarded, people stop working and governments collapse. The Greeks watched their economy shrink and unemployment climb under Troika-mandated austerity, and were facing decades of debt servitude. A default and exit from the EU will be no picnic. Alexis Tsirpas' Syriza socialists will get acquainted with the realities of no credit (unless Russia or China comes through), reinstatement of a drachma that nobody inside or outside Greece will trust, and only what it can generate in economic activity going forward to fund their redistributive proclivities and the rest of the government, assuming Greek aversion to paying taxes can be overcome. In other words, Greeks will be starting from zero, but in their collective judgement, zero is better than negative—clawing out from a deep debt and austerity hole.

The key word here is repudiation, and the way is now clear for the government of Greece to repudiate hundreds of billions of euros of debt with the clear support of its citizens. For a breakdown of potential creditor losses, see “How a Greek Default Could Hammer Bonds, by Carl Weinberg” SLL, 7/5/15, and “Good On You, Greece—But Don’t Waver Now (Part 2),” by David Stockman," SLL, 7/4/15. For a description of the financial ripple effects, see “Crisis Progress Report (8): Acceleration,” SLL, 7/2/15. There is indeed a limit to how much debt and taxes can be piled on the serfs, in Greece and elsewhere. Governments propose; the serfs dispose, and the Greeks may have just disposed of not just a mountain of debt, but the whole creaky apparatus of the EU. They will serve as an example for other political parties across Europe—now termed extremist but perhaps soon to be mainstream. Will youth in developed countries around the world, faced with shrinking economies and bleak job markets, but also charged with paying their elders’ “entitlements” and servicing their elders’s debt, get ideas? Don’t bet against it.

SLL is going to venture out on a limb and predict that the Greek vote represents two apexes: peak debt and peak government. The people have spoken. Congratulations, Greece.


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  • Posted by CircuitGuy 9 years, 10 months ago
    Are voters repudiating debt or voting for a miracle that keeps the borrowing going?
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  • Posted by $ MichaelAarethun 9 years, 10 months ago
    The other joke is the hopeful learn english, the fearful learnj Chinese and the practical learn Marxmanship now spelled with a K.

    the curse is may you live and retire on your salary. Something we are learning in the USA
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  • Posted by $ MichaelAarethun 9 years, 10 months ago in reply to this comment.
    lest we forget. Banksters or corporatists are partners with politicos or statists. And the IMF portion is largely a government run deal. This amount though is paltry compared to what they flushed down the toilet in Russia. Still it's all socialists sticking together looting and mooching.
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  • Posted by $ MichaelAarethun 9 years, 10 months ago in reply to this comment.
    Not their money. Some of it is for sure but that''s only a few countries like Germany. Chances are most of what went and is going to Greece will be Obama Funny Money. The only way that won't happen is if he realizes the difference between cafe Greco and cafe turkos and sticks with his own side.
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  • Posted by freedomforall 9 years, 10 months ago in reply to this comment.
    Seems like they could enjoy making the banksters take the first big bite. Of course it was money created from nothing so the banksters will just make more and the rest of the world will take the hit just as the banksters planned when they made the loans.
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  • Posted by SaltyDog 9 years, 10 months ago
    When all of the rhetoric is done, the member states of the EU will realize that if Greece goes, so goes any chance of getting their money back. It's not as if any of them can file a mechanic's lien. If Greece would come to it's collective senses, an admitted long shot, they would reorganize the drachma and would be in a pretty good bargaining position in a year or two. That would require the realization that they've made a giant 'dirt' sandwich, and EVERYONE must take a big bite. One wonders now if the EU is going to look to the U.S. for a bailout...not as far fetched as one would imagine.
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  • Posted by freedomforall 9 years, 10 months ago in reply to this comment.
    Sounds like Atlas. Can the Greeks realize their predicament and find a way to interest outside investments? Many collapsed economies find a way. What is the Greek natural resource worthy of investment?
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  • Posted by freedomforall 9 years, 10 months ago
    Greece voted to do what the Confederacy wanted to do: leave statist Lincoln's unfair fascist taxation behind. These days the banksters war against Greek liberty will be financial instead of military.
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  • Posted by 9 years, 10 months ago in reply to this comment.
    When the US's credit cards all limit out and we find ourselves in a similar situation, am I, a productive individual and life-long taxpayer going to consider myself responsible for the government's debt? Not a chance, and if presented with an opportunity to repudiate, I will repudiate. I would assume there will be some rough, but not perfect, justice: those who have been getting something for nothing will be stiffed, and I and my progeny will no longer be debt slaves. Greece as a country certainly deserves a fair share of the blame for its plight, but why productive Greeks must doom themselves to debt serfdom to pay debt incurred by corrupt governments to buy votes and distribute payoffs to cronies, I just don't see.

    The Europen institutions deserve blame as well. The 2010 "rescue" actually transferred most Greek debt from European banks to the Troika institutions, where losses could be socialized. It was clear then, and I and many others said so then, that Greece could not pay its debt, but their total debt was increased. The 2012 rescue did impose some haircuts, but only on private creditors, not the supranational institutions. Just as hard-working Americans have been used and abused by its government, so too has the average hard-working Greek been used an abused by its government and the Troika. Keep in mind that Troika austerity has destroyed the Greek economy and driven unemployment to depression levels, especially among the young. You would have a better argument if that kind of austerity ever worked, but it rarely has. The first thing the IMF in particular insists on is both consumption and income tax increases. All Greeks cannot be freeloaders. The freeloaders will be punished regardless of the outcome; there is simply no more money to freeload. However, the Greeks have opted to start from zero, with all its negative consequences, rather than put themselves in a hole from which they will never emerge. They have also said, decisively, that they, not the Troika institutions, will run their country and make their own decisions. They are preserving their sovereignty. I think Americans will face the same choice somewhere down the line, and I know the way I would vote--not that we'll ever be given that opportunity.
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  • Posted by $ WilliamShipley 9 years, 10 months ago
    The problem is it's not a case of the citizens who's labors fund them. It's a case of the citizens who have spent a long time getting benefits for nothing.

    The idea that austerity -- that you have to actually make the money that you are spending is the evil holding back the productive people is ludicrous.

    If they were all that productive, they would be funding the pensions of Italy -- and demanding austarity.
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  • Posted by $ jbrenner 9 years, 10 months ago in reply to this comment.
    That will not happen in Greece. President Zero would be considered a moderate in Greece, according to my boss. Greece is now nothing but looters and moochers. The producers are all gone.
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  • Posted by 9 years, 10 months ago in reply to this comment.
    What would be wildly ironic, hilarious actually, would be if the Greeces, after a wicked tumble, got up, dusted themselves off, got their spending in order, and made a go of it without the EU. Not saying it's going to happen, Syriza is, after all, socialist, but it would certainly be amusing if it did.
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  • Posted by $ jbrenner 9 years, 10 months ago
    One pillar of the Parthenon today, followed by Spain, Portugal, and several other countries in the not too distant future. My Greek boss came to the US to avoid what the collapse of that economy. It isn't long until the collapse starts in earnest here, too.

    Get those escape plans ready.
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