Amazing!

People say you can't call a market peak or catch a falling knife.

How many people saw this post a month ago and took a short position? The index was at a peak and crashed right after this post.

CNBC World had a story on the increase in the Shanghai composite index as I was channel-flipping last night. China is encouraging its citizens to invest in China. A reporter went to a farming community in an outer province where there were a couple of very sophisticated investors who were guiding the newbies. Farmers were actively watching the stock market at night. It reminded me of the 1990s here in America when everyday people started investing in the market. Yes, it probably is a bubble, but one where government is actually encouraging self-sufficiency!

That link says that index is worth 23 times earnings-- a lot unless investors are sure of amazing earnings growth.

In the past I would have joked maybe you're a buyer of some of the puts I write, but I'm not writing them as much anymore anymore. I'm getting more bearish, writing some calls, keeping some in negative-real-rate short-term bonds, but no short positions yet.

I have been worried about our own market being in a bubble. One burst may set off the other.