Yep. Agreed. It drives me crazy when someone asserts things like this, and the masses run back to the fortune tellers or religion for answers. Unhelpful...except to assert that thus far, Climate Models fall into the category of unknowable due to complexity.

It certainly was taken to extremes in the Jurassic Park. I mean the issue there is that something has to go wrong or there isn't a movie.

What is an issue, and is not contradicted by the article, is that when systems have significant feedback effects, relatively small differences in the data at the beginning can make large differences in the results.

Since there are practical limits to measuring all the possible inputs into something as complex as weather that means that there is probably some limitation on how far in advance we will be able to predict.

That doesn't mean that we can't use science to predict what is going to happen. It probably means that Hari Seldon will probably not be able to use psychohistory to predict human society's actions for centuries in the future -- even without the mule.

Interesting way to say "If one doesn't have all the data, one can't predict the outcome."

There is nothing about Chaos Theory that demonstrates first principles do not hold. It simply tries to provide an understanding when the data to calculate from first principles is too vast or otherwise untenable.

The assertion that Chaos Theory proves things are unknowable is as foolish as asserting the same from statistics in throwing dice.

Please someone show me how chaos theory any more than inert. at equilibrium, time reversible, determinist classical mechanics applies to dissipative, indeterminate, time irreversible, far from equilibrium, living systems. The opposite of chaos is DNA, The most stable macro molecule in biology. The reason there are fluids in cells is not chaos but diffusion according to good old Newton. Don't drag interesting but irrelevant physics into life. It exists to get rid of the irrelevant and inefficient.

It's funny, I was talking to a young fellow who's deeply into believing the conspiracy-type theories of Alex Jones, et. al and the JFK assassination, 9/11, etc. One thing that struck me was: these theories rely on the belief that these events are highly orchestrated and orderly - and, of course, that everyone executing them can keep the secret.

My husband, John, said: they don't take into account the amount of spontaneous chaos that occurs in most social organizations.

Chaos Theory is the justification of Murphy's Law. We have been amused by Murphy in one form or another for centuries, sometimes giving it credence but more often, just something obvious to shrug your shoulders over.

On a less serious note, I have indicated to the Gulch that when I'm questioned about my religion, I profess to worship Eris, the Greek goddess of chaos. We use the yin-yang symbol and call it the Holy Chao. I was an elaborate joke. Perhaps I should take it more seriously.

This post caused me to laugh in a cynical kind of a way.

The misuse of language to attempt to explain mathematics and science is at least fruitless endeavor and dangerous to the extreme when the intent is to tie to some other political or societal agenda or cultural ideology. Chaos Theory is a theory. It works better than some theories applied to some things and totally fails when applied to some other things. It is not a measure of value or certainty.

Very deep & interesting. Thanks.

Any system that does not operate in the linear region is part of chaos theory. But digital electronics always tries to operate in the non-linear region of transistors.

This is a good piece for non-mathematicians. Of course, those who know how the New Left functions, will perceive the sinister motivations of those who link chaos theory to chaotic science.

Good article. I thought it was going to go way over my head. Not so. Never has chaos made so much sense. :)

One has to be very careful about what one reads and hears about chaos theory. If the person doing the scholarship is doing it properly, it is not hard to show how sets of multiple (as few as two) coupled differential equations (ordinary or partial) can give rise to either multiple steady states or no steady states whatsoever. The simplest example of these are the so called predator-prey relations. It's been 25 years since I spent any time on this, but serious mathematicians can read about Lotka-Volterra equations to learn more. Scott Fogler's reactor engineering textbook has a nice treatment on chaos theory.

Interesting article on how people who are not scientists always use science incorrectly to show the limits on reason and science.

Unfortunately,some of these people are even scientists (Copenhagen interpretation of quantum mechanics) and it also shows how many people have fallen for Karl Popper's nonsense.