Backwardation - Negative Interest Rates
Posted by CircuitGuy 10 years ago to Economics
Excerpt:
"Thus in a weak economic environment like this, with low inflation, banks and other financial institutions that want certainty of payment in the future are willing to pay interest to get their money back later.
Part of the problem here is that the fiat currencies of the world exist only to be units of account, and not stores of value. Thus in this unusual environment, they behave like any other commodity, where the prices for futures are often higher than the current spot price, which is known as backwardation."
My comments:
I recall reading 20 years ago about this in happening Japan because their banking system wasn't fully capitalist but had cronyism fueled by vestiges of ancient Japanese values. I remember wrongly thinking that could never happen in the US and Europe.
I would like to see a return to stable 3% inflation, a balanced budget, and positive real rates of interest with a normal yield curve. For the past few years I've started the year thinking we would be heading back to that by the end of the year, but we stay in this bizarre zone of tepid expansion and loose monetary policy year after year.
"Thus in a weak economic environment like this, with low inflation, banks and other financial institutions that want certainty of payment in the future are willing to pay interest to get their money back later.
Part of the problem here is that the fiat currencies of the world exist only to be units of account, and not stores of value. Thus in this unusual environment, they behave like any other commodity, where the prices for futures are often higher than the current spot price, which is known as backwardation."
My comments:
I recall reading 20 years ago about this in happening Japan because their banking system wasn't fully capitalist but had cronyism fueled by vestiges of ancient Japanese values. I remember wrongly thinking that could never happen in the US and Europe.
I would like to see a return to stable 3% inflation, a balanced budget, and positive real rates of interest with a normal yield curve. For the past few years I've started the year thinking we would be heading back to that by the end of the year, but we stay in this bizarre zone of tepid expansion and loose monetary policy year after year.
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It's been a few years since I've studied the subject intensively, although I have been getting back to it lately. My current thoughts as for what the medium might be, as a producer and consumer, i.e., trader, my preference as expressed in the market would be gold.
I have done some reading in the past, in particular Hayek, on a commodity reserve currency, but I also recall some good arguments against it. Until I refresh my memory, I will reserve judgement. But then as I've said, the market should be the final arbiter.
The same for new ideas like Bitcoin. As a life-long techie, is sounds "cool", but I'd need to study it more before offering an opinion on whether it is a viable "money".
Can you point me to a book or website about the first claim (corruption) since the entire explanation probably wouldn't fit here.
Keep in mind as well, when the Fed reports on inflation, there's a little footnote that's usually said sotto voce that goes, " ex food and energy". So if you're like me, those are your biggest expenses, and anyone who doesn't think that inflation in those two sectors has been anything BUT tame and benign these last 6 or 8 years, hasn't been in a gas station or a grocery store.
They briefly stopped the borrowing in the mid 90s, and I hoped something similar would happen.
Regarding rates and inflation, I still do not understand why they're this low.
Who is this "they" that you speak of? Who are these benevolent, selfless, all knowing beings with their hands at the controls of the largest economy on the planet with only our nations best interest in mind? Able to outmaneuver the random decisions of millions of people and create policy that is fair and beneficial to all while never allowing the temptation of all that power to influence their decisions?
It's not about whether or not "they" can "tweak" here and "adjust" there and guide the economy in a positive direction. It's about the idea that "guiding" the economy means that "they" know where and how the economy should be going and anybody who disagrees is wrong.It's about a corruptible system that attracts corrupt participants and cannot be expected to benefit anybody except those corrupt participants except by pure coincidence. It's about the fact that someone who defends and promotes a corrupt system and it's participants is trying to profit, himself, from that system and is, therefore, one of those corrupt participants.
This "they" that you speak of are not benevolent angels here to help us. They are the devil and it appears that you are not just "playing" as his advocate.
I liked your point that if the economy works around inflation, it could do the same thing with deflation. We need more of that and less of just saying people are wrong without saying why or sometimes even about which claims.
Yes. And it's not happening. As I said, I keep thinking this year we'll return to normalcy. That's been for the past four years.
In a truly Capitalist economy, with sound money based in gold, economic theory proves without question, and just plain common sense dictates, that the normal state would be a gently falling price level. Markets for existing goods would be expanding, and new products would be constantly being invented and brought to market. With a fixed or virtually fixed money supply, all prices, including wages would have to fall due to competition. Everyone would know this, and would rationally factor this into their plans and budgets with no problem whatsoever.
Even the pro-Capitalist Monetarist school of Friedman et. al. was wrong in advocating a "gently expanding" money supply, even if politicians and central bankers could be trusted to keep it gentle. In the long run it would have the same negative effects of any inflationary policy, except not as pronounced as a radical inflationist policy
Unless your comment was meant to be as sarcastic as mine.
I had assumed that this was a traditional model for people with lots of money that they did not want traced or which they wanted to be 'still there' when they got out of prison/ escaped from the country they were in.
Jan
The good thing about trading something of intrinsic value is that the fluctuations aren't masterminded by a central bank and the medium of exchange doesn't depreciate by design.
The bad thing is that the intrinsic value is tied up in exchange of other products/service and not being put to use. It's also bad that the fluctuations are unpredictable. Also, when it goes up, it encourages people to hold it even when other means of production are unused because people are holding their money. When it goes down, it encourages people to invest/consume.
The counter-argument to the things on my list of "bad things" is that human-controlled fiat money is subject to human foibles. Even if the humans were paragons of virtue, the argument goes, you still are turning over too much power to them. (There are certainly other counter-arguments I don't know of.)
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