Strong U.S. job, wage gains open door to mid-year rate hike | Reuters

Posted by richrobinson 10 years, 3 months ago to The Gulch: General
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There has been a lot said recently about how the unemployment number is very misleading. Now we get this positive report. I am very skeptical of these numbers. I don't trust this administration at all. GDP was negative in Q1 then magically turns positive. More massaging of the numbers is my guess.


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  • Posted by JaxGary 10 years, 2 months ago in reply to this comment.
    Yes, our inflation is quite high if one agrees that inflation is an increase in the supply of money. However, the reason that we do not feel an immediate impact of that inflation is primarily tied to the fact that the US Dollar is the world's reserve currency and many countries use the USD as their own currencies. That means a great deal of those newly printed dollars are leaving our economy and not directly impacting prices in the US. Several major economic players, mainly China and Russia, are trying to replace the USD as the world's reserve currency. If they are successful, a boatload of those dollars that were previous being circulated OUTSIDE our economy will come home to cause all prices to rise and we will begin to see the negative effects of this Keynesian ideal of unlimited government borrowing, money printing, and spending. We have probably passed a reasonable point of return and should all be bracing for the inevitable - a collapse of the USD. It will happen; the only real question becomes when will it occur.
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  • Posted by Robbie53024 10 years, 2 months ago in reply to this comment.
    I really wish that people would stop saying that, being one who uses statistics to see "reality."
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  • Posted by JaxGary 10 years, 2 months ago in reply to this comment.
    You are looking on the surface; try to see what is not so obvious. The real economic bugaboo to the Fed is disinflation, falling consumer prices, and that does not seem to be prevalent. The government claims of recovers are exaggerated but they are not saying a "hot" economy is driving consumer prices downward. A normal market economy (without government intervention) will always result in progressively lower prices as technological improvements and entrepreneurial skills will improve production efficiencies over time while consumer discretion will reward those firms that achieve efficiency - disinflation is a straw man. Most of us define inflation as an increase in the money supply rather than a rise in price levels as the Keynesians do. Either way, I still do not see any real incentive for the Fed to increase interest rates. I suspect they will actually return to some form of money-pumping as in quantitative easing; not because the economy is cold, but just because they can and lower interest rates makes it less painful for the government to pay the interest on it ever-increasing national debt! I would not be surprised at all if treasury yields enter into negative territory, meaning we would have to PAY interest to hold treasury bonds rather than EARN interest on holding them.
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  • Posted by evlwhtguy 10 years, 2 months ago
    there are lies, damn lies, and statistics. I believe that it was Mark Twain who produced this quote.
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  • Posted by Herb7734 10 years, 2 months ago
    Are all the lefties in the world delusional? Don't they ever wonder why the snake they put in their back pocket keeps biting their ass? You don't have to be a professor of economics to see the lie. All I can think of is that it may be that the world is being run by people from an alternate universe.
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  • Posted by 10 years, 2 months ago in reply to this comment.
    Sorry, I worded that wrong. Bernanke had said that it could be controlled and when Yellen replaced him she agreed.
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  • Posted by 10 years, 2 months ago in reply to this comment.
    Yes, you can make the numbers say anything. There is such a disconnect at this point I wonder if more people are realizing it...probably not.
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  • Posted by 10 years, 2 months ago in reply to this comment.
    Excellent point. I am noticing too that Obama is just saying anything these days. Some of his comments would have buried a Republican.
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  • Posted by 10 years, 2 months ago in reply to this comment.
    If the economy is doing as well as the government claims the Fed has signaled a rate increase by mid year. They either have to disagree with the administration or crash everything.
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  • Posted by $ allosaur 10 years, 2 months ago
    My evil twin, Comrade Citizens says, "Way to go Roto-Reuters! Prop that propaganda and go to work!"
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  • Posted by $ jdg 10 years, 2 months ago in reply to this comment.
    Forget Wall Street. Since 2008 the Fed has increased the US money supply by about a factor of 4.5, mostly buy buying bonds the Treasury couldn't sell by pulling money out of its collective backside.

    That's 450% inflation. So far, only about 10% has reached us as price inflation, mostly because the Fed has been encouraging banks to keep their money on deposit at the Fed rather than lend to anybody. But with the so-called recovery, that is starting to change, and when it does, interest on the national debt is going to be more than the Treasury can pay. (Raising taxes won't help either -- we're above the hump on the Laffer curve.)

    We're headed for runaway inflation, folks. Get your assets OUT of anything denominated in US Dollars, before they get sucked down the black hole!
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  • Posted by Robbie53024 10 years, 2 months ago in reply to this comment.
    bra·zen
    (brā′zən)
    adj.
    1. Unrestrained by a sense of shame; rudely bold. See Synonyms at shameless.

    Since the left has pretty much eliminated anything as being shameful, it would seem that is all that one can be anymore. And since it seems that anyone can be offended by just about anything (excepting white males, who cannot be offended at all but whose very existence is offensive), again, everything must be brazen.
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  • Posted by JaxGary 10 years, 2 months ago in reply to this comment.
    What incentive does the Fed have for raising rates? The theory is to raise rates to cool a rising economy and to reduce rates to stimulate a slowly growing economy. I do not see any impetus for raising the rates at the present time.
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  • Posted by samrigel 10 years, 2 months ago
    If one counts all of those folks that have given up on looking for work and those that are working several part-time jobs to make ends meet then the actual unemployment number is between 12 - 15 %. The one thing I learned many years ago in my college Economics class was you can make the numbers mean whatever you want them to mean. It is all a matter of perspective!!
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  • Posted by wiggys 10 years, 2 months ago in reply to this comment.
    Zenphany you have it absolutely correct. this administration has done what previous administrations have done only in SPADES. the economy is as I have said before in the toilet and it has been flushed. I am sure the unemployment rate is probably 30 percent. wage increases to professional athletes is up but to the rest of the US economy it is non-existent. sales at retail abound. manufacturing is down. the price of oil by the barrel wouldn't surprise me if it were in the 30's before june of 2015. I just read that pork meat is now out selling beef, why because it is cheaper! oil and gas pumping companies are cutting back employees all over the country communities where these people live were gearing up to build more homes, not happening. the early big lie was when the government claimed a HUGH increase in tax revenues, gas prices will continue to drop because people aren't driving unnecessarily. and they aren't squandering the savings to buy new shirts, etc. the closer we get to the end of 0's term, can't come soon enough the worst the economy will get. recent history shows this. from the conservatives hero Reagan to bush 2 that is what we have seen, but if you thought things were bad then wait till this clown leaves office.
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  • Posted by 10 years, 2 months ago in reply to this comment.
    If the Fed buys in to the lie that the economy is doing better and they end up raising rates the stock market would probably fall hard. Difficult times we live in.
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  • Posted by JaxGary 10 years, 2 months ago in reply to this comment.
    Do not expect the Fed to do us any favors. It is an institution that was created to transfer wealth by intentionally devaluing our dollar at the highest possible sustainable rate. Their intent is always to harm us; but to keep that harm to a low enough level that we will not rise up in revolt.
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  • Posted by 10 years, 2 months ago in reply to this comment.
    Ironically these numbers may cause the Fed to increase rates and that may cause a crash on Wall Street. Oh what a tangled web we weave when first we practice to deceive.
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