:)... Robbie, 'hard science' uses distribution curves very often. Many events and measurements are not 'either-or'... :)

Still, I've never heard of an ECONOMIST running a double-blind Controlled Experiment...

Real folks like people in marketing do very often.
:)
Economists just seem to forecast futures based on past events that are never close enough to 'current conditions' to make the bases of the predictions viable.

My favorite is the number of "economists" and financial gurus who have "predicted 25 of the last four recessions."

Need more evidence than that?
:)

Social Science?
Candidate for the Oxymoron of the Day for today?
:)

And, Rob... I enjoy the 'price of the day' for gasoline as much as I can, but I only drive about 6000 miles a year in my Prius, even counting five jaunts across the US, so at 400 miles per tank, the pendulum swing in the price of gas can swing full cycle or more as I burn off one tank!

I essentially don't care about the price of gasoline. I'm just lucky that way at this point in my life. If I commuted 100 miles round trip to work each day, it probably would have more impact on me.

But you're just supporting my comments about the cyclical nature of all nearly everything. You might try a subscription to Reason Magazine for their views on such issues, as well as their periodic summaries of recent events and their take on 'em... much like MarketMinder's reviews.

Cheers!

Well Jack intentionally does not put those barcodes on his books to make such a thing next to impossible. For example, you probably cannot buy a new copy of one of his books on Amazon.

You can only buy this book directly from the author. He does not sell it in any other way so you won't find it in a library.

Some more recent experiments appear to have demonstrated that the frog can and DOES jump out of the pot if he/she can. :)

And everyone seems to forget EVERY TIME that ALL of these swings are Cyclical! If frackers cap wells, the oil is still there, waiting for the next upswing in crude prices. The resources don't decay with age, y'know....

Virtually all natural resource price swings work the same way. When gold prices drop, mines shut down until the prices firm up and then they're reopened until supply exceeds demand and the price of the shiny drops again... at which point they shutter the mines again.

Or you can forget history. Ken Fisher points out that the LONG Term Gains from investments in Gold (or virtually any other precious metal) average less than that of the S&P 500.

If you want to time any market, more power to you. I've hit a couple good ones with lucky timing (or skill, as I might prefer to call it) but over the long haul, you're better off not counting on that strategy for your retirement nest egg...

Ah, shit... what do I know? I'm just an 'injunear', not an MBA or a Ph.D. in some flashy discipline like "investing" or "economics"... :)

ps... "Economics is NOT a 'science'... they never get to run controlled experiments..."
:)

"Foreseeable Future Is An Oxymoron"....
--- me.

Depression? Hyperinflation?
Follow the Money, Follow the Power, Follow the Control over Others...
Do those two scary scenarios (scenaria?) follow logically from that? Who stands to lose in those kinds of future worlds? Crony Capitalists? They might have a vested interest in NOT letting that shit hit the fan... lucky for us, maybe?

We shall see... but I still don't trust ANY of these Cassandras OR Wild-Eyed Optimists, especially if they're also selling subscriptions to their Advice Letters...

That was funny.... I checked MarketMinder for some history and was not disappointed, although their last mentions of the BDI was quite a few years ago... sample at http://www.marketminder.com/a/fisher-inv...

I love predictions of "this [whatever] will continue linearly (or exponentially) forever and we're all doomed..."

Want a good read? Buy/download/read any or all of Ken Fisher's books... and although I AM a client of his company, I do NOT get a toaster or any such reward if you partake of any of his services... except maybe if you cough up 0.5 Mil or more and become a client. In which case, I think they send me a Thank You letter... :)

Interesting and scary. Could you stop giving them ideas?

For an ounce a week, sure. It'd be a cut in my current pay, but far less BS and worth it.

I forgot to mention that property tax angle. They'll just raise the tax sky high if your mortgage is paid off too... and then the kings men can just stop at every door regardless. Will be so easily accomplished after they take our guns. Busy day :)

I can hire you to watch my gold.... ;-)

10% of my holdings are in ammo of various calibers. Just sayin'...

Great observation. I agree. Wow. I wasn't expecting this many comments today...geez.

All good food for thought!

Any investment that I make in gold would be less than around 10% of my holdings.

What I really want is something that is Armageddon proof!

I strongly think the radio ads are wrong and gold should be a small fraction of your portfolio. Even if you're generally bearish, you can invest in funds of stocks of mature companies that pay dividends. I would normally say bonds, but I think rates are poised to rise, which will make bonds go down and usually make stocks go up.

When I hear the gold ads, I always envision post WWI Germans; using wheelbarrows to get their paper money to the baker, for a loaf of bread. Or Waterworld, where the only currency was rare elements, like dirt!

I just need to get motivated and do some research. Gold is low at the moment (according to the radio), and this would be the right time to invest.

"I do wake up every morning and tell myself that this is the day to turn some of that IRA into gold"
What are you in now? I'm pretty sure there are ways to take short positions within an IRA. You absolutely can invest in precious metals and minerals funds.

I dont have proof, but I have put my money on this several times over the past weeks and been correct every time. It definitely happened but the long term effect is something that still needs to be addressed.

Snort. Not likely.

And YUM!!!