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2) Unknown. Not sure why?
1) Could the debt be holding down the inflation rate?
2) If the central bankers conspire to increase their money supplies at the same rate and keep their interest rates near zero, might that have a dampening effect on inflation? And might this also be keeping gold and silver trading in a narrow range?
"...So there's a vicious circle at work here: people hoard money in difficult times, but times become more difficult when people hoard money.
The cure for this, Keynes said, was for the central bank to expand the money supply. By putting more bills in people's hands, consumer confidence would return, people would spend, and the circular flow of money would be reestablished. Just that simple! Too simple, in fact, for the policy-makers of that time.
If this is the proposed definition and cure for recessions, then what about depressions? Keynes believed that depressions were recessions that had fallen into a "liquidity trap." A liquidity trap is when people hoard money and refuse to spend no matter how much the government tries to expand the money supply. In these dire circumstances, Keynes believed that the government should do what individuals were not, namely, spend. In his memorable phrase, Keynes called this "priming the pump" of the economy, a final government effort to reestablish the circular flow of money... "
http://www.huppi.com/kangaroo/Keynesiani...
The ability to expand the money supply without limits or any discipline coupled with unpayable runaway debt means that this will unravel with great pain. Its only a question of when and how bad.
While I agree that inflation makes the value of a later sum of currency less than a current sum this has been relatively modest as of the past several years. And in the past year or so, the value of gold compared to the dollar has gone down. Thus, your hard currency has "inflated" more than has the actual dollar lately.
The money supply needs to increase at the rate of the economic activity. If it increases more, that will lead to inflation. That's not good. If it does not increase at the rate of economic activity, then further growth will be stymied. The benefit of a hard currency like gold is that it is relatively stable, and as it increases in value, it incentivizes the mining of more, and as it decreases, it disincentivizes mining. This is natural regulation. What the Fed does is artificial and is used to benefit those who don't deserve it, and punish those who don't deserve to be punished.
I don't know whether MM feels this is not a problem or that it is. What I know is that this isn't an easy issue and there isn't a clear cut course to take to unravel this without extreme pain.
1) Arbitrage compresses the spread not as he says, but because as a seller agrees to a contract he then reestablishes a new Ask at the Bid price, and as a buyer agrees to a contract he then reestablishes a new Bid at the Ask price. The other buyers/sellers then see these new prices and adjust accordingly.
2) The cause of inflation relative to gold (or other commodity) is the relative amounts of each. It is because there are so many dollars compared to gold that the number of dollars required to purchase gold goes up. Yes, I agree with the mechanism of desirability of gold that causes the demand in the first place, but the amount of inflation will be dictated by the number of dollars available.
For a free-market business, increased productivity allows more to be produced with the same resources which lowers the costs of goods. This allows the business to pay their more productive employees more without causing inflationary pressure.
As for gold. If you could trade your dollars for a hard currency, then you would be protecting your purchasing power into the future, so why wouldn't you do so? A $20 gold coin from the 1800's could buy you a very nice suit. That same coin would still buy you a very nice suit today. Value has been retained, regardless of the exchange rate into our fiat currency.
But the central theme is wrong, -that- if you know inflation will happen you can plan for it. You can predict inflation, but not quantify it. My experience in corporate/economic planning is ok if it is very low, say under 1%. Inflation is a sort of animal with a life of its own, it is inevitable that people plan conservatively so anticipate high inflation, the outcome is that the inflation rate escalates and there is then the danger of currency and economic collapse. So, government takes some action, the public panic the other way, the economy swings into depression.
The libertarians say that only governments cause booms and busts, I doubt that, but they certainly make them more frequent and probably more severe.
The point about trading at the market price -yes but- consider Soros trading currency but government is bigger even than Soros, so the concept of market price with one enormous buyer/manipulator is hardly valid.
Maybe this is a mis-statement of the proposition from Lets Shrug- inflation must increase at the rate at which money is created, well there may be some manipulation in definition, but it does not happen as blarman etc explain, and remember technological productivity is still working to reduce prices, the question is, how long can inflationary governments expect that productivity will continue to enable them to pull these counter-inflationary rabbits out hats?
trust anything from the liars in this administration??? -- j
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