Irredeemable Currency Session 1, 1/2

Posted by dbhalling 9 years, 5 months ago to Economics
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Keith Weiner Economist and Objectivists talks about our monetary system - video.


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  • Posted by $ blarman 9 years, 5 months ago in reply to this comment.
    That is because most of the currency which got printed never made it into the market. They just used it to buy more currency. And yes, that last sentence describes not only EXACTLY what they did, but the absurdity of it as well.
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  • Posted by j_IR1776wg 9 years, 5 months ago in reply to this comment.
    +1 for you. I think we've all been scratching our heads on the flat inflation rate. I'd like your take on these possibilities.

    1) Could the debt be holding down the inflation rate?

    2) If the central bankers conspire to increase their money supplies at the same rate and keep their interest rates near zero, might that have a dampening effect on inflation? And might this also be keeping gold and silver trading in a narrow range?
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  • Posted by Robbie53024 9 years, 5 months ago in reply to this comment.
    Complicated indeed. I've been scratching my head over the past few years as to why we haven't been experiencing higher inflation. I think that Keith has part of the answer. It doesn't explain why gold/silver have been sliding of late. I wish I had an answer. I've not understood the fundamentals of the stock market that would keep things going up - other than that there's continually more money that's going into it. Likewise, I don't see why gold/silver have been falling - doesn't jibe with the overall economic environment. Everything seems to be upside down. This seems to be a consequence of Fed manipulation. To which I've made the call here for a lawyer to sue the Fed for losses on shorts that should have happened, but which the Fed has intentionally countered and manipulated the market. This market manipulation is going to lead to ruination, but not until after those who are "in the know" have sucked out all they can.
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  • Posted by j_IR1776wg 9 years, 5 months ago in reply to this comment.
    `Complicated indeed Robbie. The pumped up stock market has been caused by the the Federal Reserve Bank's stimulus program which is really Keynesian "priming the pump" as partially described here...
    "...So there's a vicious circle at work here: people hoard money in difficult times, but times become more difficult when people hoard money.

    The cure for this, Keynes said, was for the central bank to expand the money supply. By putting more bills in people's hands, consumer confidence would return, people would spend, and the circular flow of money would be reestablished. Just that simple! Too simple, in fact, for the policy-makers of that time.

    If this is the proposed definition and cure for recessions, then what about depressions? Keynes believed that depressions were recessions that had fallen into a "liquidity trap." A liquidity trap is when people hoard money and refuse to spend no matter how much the government tries to expand the money supply. In these dire circumstances, Keynes believed that the government should do what individuals were not, namely, spend. In his memorable phrase, Keynes called this "priming the pump" of the economy, a final government effort to reestablish the circular flow of money... "
    http://www.huppi.com/kangaroo/Keynesiani...
    The ability to expand the money supply without limits or any discipline coupled with unpayable runaway debt means that this will unravel with great pain. Its only a question of when and how bad.
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  • Posted by Robbie53024 9 years, 5 months ago in reply to this comment.
    And the money pumping has driven up the stock market.

    While I agree that inflation makes the value of a later sum of currency less than a current sum this has been relatively modest as of the past several years. And in the past year or so, the value of gold compared to the dollar has gone down. Thus, your hard currency has "inflated" more than has the actual dollar lately.

    The money supply needs to increase at the rate of the economic activity. If it increases more, that will lead to inflation. That's not good. If it does not increase at the rate of economic activity, then further growth will be stymied. The benefit of a hard currency like gold is that it is relatively stable, and as it increases in value, it incentivizes the mining of more, and as it decreases, it disincentivizes mining. This is natural regulation. What the Fed does is artificial and is used to benefit those who don't deserve it, and punish those who don't deserve to be punished.

    I don't know whether MM feels this is not a problem or that it is. What I know is that this isn't an easy issue and there isn't a clear cut course to take to unravel this without extreme pain.
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  • Posted by Robbie53024 9 years, 5 months ago
    While I think that Keith has many good points, he is mistaken in a couple - had to get to part 2 to find them.
    1) Arbitrage compresses the spread not as he says, but because as a seller agrees to a contract he then reestablishes a new Ask at the Bid price, and as a buyer agrees to a contract he then reestablishes a new Bid at the Ask price. The other buyers/sellers then see these new prices and adjust accordingly.
    2) The cause of inflation relative to gold (or other commodity) is the relative amounts of each. It is because there are so many dollars compared to gold that the number of dollars required to purchase gold goes up. Yes, I agree with the mechanism of desirability of gold that causes the demand in the first place, but the amount of inflation will be dictated by the number of dollars available.
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  • Posted by j_IR1776wg 9 years, 5 months ago in reply to this comment.
    The essence of the crime of counterfeiting currency is theft. This fake money, whether coined, printed, or digitized, waters down the value of the existing real money by reducing the amount of goods that real money can buy. The Federal Reserve Bank has reduced the value of the dollar by 96% since 1913.Mike seems to think this is no problem. Do you???
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  • Posted by Robbie53024 9 years, 5 months ago in reply to this comment.
    Likewise, unions are inherently inflationary. They petition for higher wages without corresponding increases in efficiency (in fact, they fight against increased efficiency, seeking to keep the maximum number of workers employed). This causes the costs of goods to rise, which causes an increase in prices.

    For a free-market business, increased productivity allows more to be produced with the same resources which lowers the costs of goods. This allows the business to pay their more productive employees more without causing inflationary pressure.
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  • Posted by Robbie53024 9 years, 5 months ago in reply to this comment.
    How do you "predict" inflation and be correct? It used to be that the best that we could do was predict a general level of inflation - mild, average, high, hyper - but even that has been thrown into disarray lately. We "should" be facing high, maybe even hyper, inflation now, but we are at mild to avg. Makes no sense.
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  • Posted by Robbie53024 9 years, 5 months ago in reply to this comment.
    Meddling with an economy, such as what happens with nearly all central banks, causes the very problems that they seek to prevent. Only a free market will adjust appropriately and allocate risk and rewards efficiently.
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  • Posted by Robbie53024 9 years, 5 months ago in reply to this comment.
    Austrians believe that booms/busts are part of the business cycle, and meddling with the economy exacerbates those cycles. Trying to eliminate the busts just ends up making them even worse.
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  • Posted by Robbie53024 9 years, 5 months ago in reply to this comment.
    Ah, but your source of supply is the one who sets the terms, ultimately. As much as Venezuela hates the US, I doubt that they are going to accept the Ruble. The Yuan, perhaps.
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  • Posted by Robbie53024 9 years, 5 months ago in reply to this comment.
    Prices have certainly gone up, and more than the official numbers, but what MM was describing is that the money supply has tripled, but prices have not tripled (thus, maintaining an even amount of purchasing per number of dollars). That would indicate that the economy has grown to offset the additional number of dollars - that clearly isn't the case. The other alternative is that someone is holding those dollars so that they aren't actually in circulation. We see that bank reserves have gone up - check. We also see that nations like China are holding dollars. Will they continue to do so? We better hope that they do. Should the banks reduce their reserves or other nations decide to switch from dollars to some other currency, we will be facing horrendous inflation. There's no way that the economy could grow and/or destroy that many dollars quickly enough not to have hyper-inflation.

    As for gold. If you could trade your dollars for a hard currency, then you would be protecting your purchasing power into the future, so why wouldn't you do so? A $20 gold coin from the 1800's could buy you a very nice suit. That same coin would still buy you a very nice suit today. Value has been retained, regardless of the exchange rate into our fiat currency.
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  • Posted by Robbie53024 9 years, 5 months ago in reply to this comment.
    What's your point? If you get spot, you're doing better than at a dealer where you will only got spot+.
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  • Posted by Lucky 9 years, 5 months ago in reply to this comment.
    Another interesting MM post, many good ideas so I give 1p.
    But the central theme is wrong, -that- if you know inflation will happen you can plan for it. You can predict inflation, but not quantify it. My experience in corporate/economic planning is ok if it is very low, say under 1%. Inflation is a sort of animal with a life of its own, it is inevitable that people plan conservatively so anticipate high inflation, the outcome is that the inflation rate escalates and there is then the danger of currency and economic collapse. So, government takes some action, the public panic the other way, the economy swings into depression.
    The libertarians say that only governments cause booms and busts, I doubt that, but they certainly make them more frequent and probably more severe.

    The point about trading at the market price -yes but- consider Soros trading currency but government is bigger even than Soros, so the concept of market price with one enormous buyer/manipulator is hardly valid.
    Maybe this is a mis-statement of the proposition from Lets Shrug- inflation must increase at the rate at which money is created, well there may be some manipulation in definition, but it does not happen as blarman etc explain, and remember technological productivity is still working to reduce prices, the question is, how long can inflationary governments expect that productivity will continue to enable them to pull these counter-inflationary rabbits out hats?
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  • Posted by johnpe1 9 years, 5 months ago in reply to this comment.
    and beware -- who issues the inflation data? do we
    trust anything from the liars in this administration??? -- j

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  • Posted by LetsShrug 9 years, 5 months ago in reply to this comment.
    Well I'm sure MM would be suited up and stretching right now if they were... he has many degrees in all things, ya know?
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  • Posted by $ jbrenner 9 years, 5 months ago in reply to this comment.
    Of course, I was teasing. I did live in Chicagoland for a while. The wind in the Windy City refers to the politics, not the weather.
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  • Posted by $ jbrenner 9 years, 5 months ago in reply to this comment.
    Inflation is only a BAD idea for us. It empowers people who don't produce and save (i.e. people who mooch), and it empowers people who wish to be our overlords (i.e. people who loot). It is a particularly insidious weapon they can use against us. What I am writing reminds me of Francisco's conversation with Rearden during the money speech.
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