Is the Stock Market On Auto-Pilot Climb?
Posted by freedomforall 4 days, 18 hours ago to Business
Excerpt:
"I’ve wondered, and I want to emphasize that this is my speculation, not something I can prove, how often enormous options purchases are being used to manufacture or accelerate momentum underneath the surface of the market. I’ve asked this question specifically related to the NASDAQ and Tesla multiple times, dating back to the early 2020s.
Archegos’ Bill Hwang, for example, used highly leveraged derivatives to create massive synthetic exposure, whose buying pressure pushed stocks higher, increased his collateral and borrowing capacity, and funded even more derivative exposure, creating a self-reinforcing feedback loop. Until it all went to shit.
Buy enough calls and somebody has to sell them to you. Depending on how dealers are positioned, those dealers may hedge by buying the underlying stock. If the stock rises, the delta of the calls can rise with it, requiring additional hedging. Momentum strategies notice the move. Humans see a chart going vertical and pile in. Suddenly you have a feedback loop."
Fascinating speculation. Please read it all.
"I’ve wondered, and I want to emphasize that this is my speculation, not something I can prove, how often enormous options purchases are being used to manufacture or accelerate momentum underneath the surface of the market. I’ve asked this question specifically related to the NASDAQ and Tesla multiple times, dating back to the early 2020s.
Archegos’ Bill Hwang, for example, used highly leveraged derivatives to create massive synthetic exposure, whose buying pressure pushed stocks higher, increased his collateral and borrowing capacity, and funded even more derivative exposure, creating a self-reinforcing feedback loop. Until it all went to shit.
Buy enough calls and somebody has to sell them to you. Depending on how dealers are positioned, those dealers may hedge by buying the underlying stock. If the stock rises, the delta of the calls can rise with it, requiring additional hedging. Momentum strategies notice the move. Humans see a chart going vertical and pile in. Suddenly you have a feedback loop."
Fascinating speculation. Please read it all.
NIFO = Nuke It From Orbit
Just a couple of years ago a family inherited a house with a safe, in the safe were gold coins during that time, when they took it to a coin dealer, they confiscated the coins, and gave them to the government... Because it was ILLEGAL to not turn in your gold and those coins are were removed from circulation afterwards.
Also, realize. When they come for YOUR guns. There will be 20x more armed people outside your place than you can "muster". They will clear the houses of arms, one at a time.
Having purchased "more than 1" firearm in the past decade, EVERY one that came from out of state forced me to sign and disclose my address and a phone call to the FBI while I waited...
So, they probably have a pretty good list.
The "tell" will be a law that says it's illegal to NOT report any transfer of weapons in the last 10 years, and WHO specifically you transferred what weapon to. That's the piece that will tell me they will start disarming us.
By that time the shite hits the fan, I (and many others) have already been long prepared.
I'm old and tired, I live a long way off the track.
If they feel it's their duty to die trying to take my God-given rights away...then it's their hill to die on.
Bring it on MF.
First, the markets are rigged to go up and to the right. (See the Plunge Protection Team)
Second, as Michael Saylor Realized, 80% of stock movement is Inflation (A weaker dollar buys fewer shares)
(Worse, companies our FORCED to leverage their balance sheet with debt to get a better multiple!)
Given that as a Thesis, and you can test this... Buy every dip, hold forever. (Specifically buy any 2nd red day in a row, whatever Market ETF you want: SPX, QQQQ, etc)
For now, they will always kick the can down the road.
And... Will the MONEY always keep coming in, every month?
YES. Every 401(k) out there is set up the same way, by design.
My daughter gets "Matching" on her 401(k) deposits, up to (say $5,000/yr). Which means, if she puts in $5k they match with $5k. And she starts with a 100% return. All of that goes into the Market, every month.
Now, what they wont tell you, is while people were buying ENRON in the accounts, BEFORE they decimated the ratings, every big holder was unloading their positions into these buyers. But eventually you run out of MONTHS...
Finally, given these facts... Most all of you should be able to do pretty well. Basically, invest in the BROAD market. DCA in general, which means buying a bit more on dips/pullbacks. And avoid specific stocks UNLESS YOU have strong faith in the stock (AMZN,NVDA,AAPL, etc).
Ride along with the Fraud. Do NOT panic sell. They have a vested interest in the game going up.
And part of the game involves the SHELL Game. Where is XEROX today? Kodak? Is Nike even in the S&P any more? (This is why you use the indexes. EVERY stock can go down. 80% are not doing great. But the raw index is powering up and to the right).
Final view point. If you are claiming "I refuse to do that, because when it blows up like 1929, it's all going to zero". While you have a point. Will your BANK survive? If you are talking such a systemic failure, and we KNOW the banks are heavily invested in the markets... Your banks are empty. It will be hard times.
Be prepared. 6-18 months of food at home, and 12 months of living expenses at home, so you don't have to panic sell, or take "Sorry Mr. Smith, your account lost all of it's value. We can give you an emergency check for $1,000 but that is all you will ever get. You could wait 10 years to get the $200,000 you had deposited, but we doubt that is going to happen. FSLIC/FDIC/SIPC are all insolvent..."
Add to that basic equation, the rest of the world is in downfall mode. America is picking up their market share, be it IT, oil, industrial metals, manufacturing, agriculture.. everything but the financial sector.
And even that is on President Trumps radar.
The City of Londons days are numbered.
Then you will see a market uptick that will blow your mind.
And it's a big but... Go look at the chart of EVERY major stock market. And compare the movements...
They move in lock step. It's insane to think what's good here is good in Germany, France, etc. etc.
Yet they move together MOST of the time.
My concern is that ONCE governments figured out... Prices are SIGNALS... they manipulated the prices to create the ONE signal "Time to Invest". When was the last time to "save?" the big signal? Now, interest rates are creeping up. That's usually the signal to "save"... (do I make 9% in the market, or 5-6% in a CD or Treasury?)
But the signals are broken. Because of both the manipulation and the constant currency debasement.
Yes, the dollar is the best currency COMPARED to all of the others. And we keep finding ways to force our Treasuries to be "desirable". Currently, USDT (Crypto Stable Coin for $1) is required to back it's currency with Treasuries, and is allowed to keep the interest. It's one of the biggest buyers of Treasuries. And we are FIGHTING to keep everything priced in Dollars.
Boy it would be nice if we had a Money/Currency that could NOT be controlled by bankers... So it could be a true store of value... And not "indirectly" taxed away from us with debasement... (Hint: BTC). And the government and bankers DO NOT want it because they would have to be honest. Could you imagine if the Government paid all bills using BTC... And every transaction was Public... Gone would be the days of a $9T shortfall (missing money) that the government cannot seem to trace... I give it 2 more generations... Once we replace congress with AI... Judges with AI... Imagine an HONEST AI pushing "common sense" legislation where they can be clear as to the meaning. And the AIs that interpret it, comprehend the purpose...
PS: I tend to agree that the market goes higher from here, and as other countries default... We benefit.
A $100,000 investment in Apple in 2000 was a $100 million result by 2019.
A lot of that came from SE Asia buyers of expensive (but useful) gadgets.
In spite of governments.
But it helps the index go up and to the right!
https://www.chartmill.com/stock/marke...