100,000 dead will look like a warm up act
I’d figured that Trump was in the middle of 3D chess when he took Maduro out before Iran, so we could access Venezuela’s oil when Iran shutdown the straight of Hormuz. It hasn’t come on line yet, I’m sure its going to be delayed by months more due to the two massive earthquakes. Up to 100,000 dead….
I hope he has contingency plans…
We are almost out of reserve, weeks away is all… If we run out of oil, John won’t have to go Galt. The wheels of the world economy will fall off and the famine will make 100,000 dead will look like a warm up act.
I hope he has contingency plans…
We are almost out of reserve, weeks away is all… If we run out of oil, John won’t have to go Galt. The wheels of the world economy will fall off and the famine will make 100,000 dead will look like a warm up act.
In the back of my mind....I keep going back to the Epstein story...thinking it probably runs much deeper than anybody realizes. The effects could end up being massive.
Precarious for the Deep State leaches. USAid and their money laundering cut off , Maduro and Iran Deep state terror proxy countries Gone………….
Iran has informed the U.S. that, despite troublemaking Fake News reporting to the contrary, there are “NO TOLLS, NO INSURANCE COSTS, & NO OTHER CHARGES OF ANY KIND BEING SOUGHT OR RECEIVED BY IRAN ON SHIPS TRAVELING THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ.” If this is false information, negotiations would end, immediately! Additionally, no money has been given to Iran, or released from their money to them, by the U.S. We will be releasing some of their money, that is totally controlled by us, to our Farmers and Ranchers, for the purchase of Corn, Wheat, Soybeans, and more. Food is desperately needed in Iran, and we will be purchasing it for them exclusively from the United States. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP
You're actually onto something real here, but the picture is more nuanced than a simple equivalence. Here's how it actually breaks down:
You're right about U.S. shale vs. heavy crude
Before the shale boom, U.S. refiners were designed to process heavy, lower-value crude from Canada, Venezuela, and the Middle East. They underwent over a decade of modifications to run more U.S. light-sweet shale grades. So your intuition is correct — it's actually the American shale crude that's the odd one out in the current refinery landscape. Bloomberg
But Venezuela ≠ Middle East crude — they're both "heavy sour" but not identical
This is where your premise needs a small correction. While both are classified as heavy sour, Arabian Gulf crudes are easier to run, require less blending, and offer more predictable yields. U.S. refiners can process Venezuelan crude, but often only within narrow operating windows and with higher costs. Arab News
Venezuelan crude is actually heavier and dirtier than most Middle Eastern grades. Merey crude from Venezuela's Orinoco Belt has among the lowest API gravity and highest sulfur content globally, requiring specialized refinery units to break down the heaviest molecules and remove impurities. Less than half of U.S. refineries have a coker. OilPrice.com
The strategic logic still holds, though
U.S. refinery capacity is designed to process heavy crude oils like Canadian or Venezuelan crude. The refineries that can handle Venezuelan oil — particularly Valero, Exxon, Marathon Petroleum, Phillips 66, and PBF Energy, which have the most coking capacity — are the same ones built to handle Middle Eastern heavy sour grades. So Venezuelan crude competes with and can substitute for Middle Eastern oil in many facilities, even if it's not a perfect drop-in replacement. Visual CapitalistBloomberg
The real bottleneck
The limitation isn't refinery compatibility — it's Venezuelan production capacity itself. Venezuelan crude exports have typically fluctuated between 700,000 and 900,000 barrels per day when flows are relatively stable. At this scale, Venezuelan crude cannot replace Arabian Gulf supply — even if every Venezuelan barrel were redirected to the U.S., it would only supplement U.S. heavy sour intake rather than replace it. Arab News
And of course, last night's earthquakes hit a country whose pipeline network had not been updated in 50 years, with PDVSA estimating it would take $58 billion to get pipelines back to peak condition — before any earthquake damage is factored in. OilPrice.com
So the short version: your instinct about refinery compatibility is largely correct — the heavy sour infrastructure is the common thread between Venezuelan and Middle Eastern crude, and U.S. light shale is actually the disruptor. But Venezuela is more of a supplement to Middle Eastern supply than a true replacement, and the earthquakes have just made even that supplement harder to realize.
Compared to WW2, this is nothing.
Venezuela's "oil" is not similar to the Mideast oil.
It's extremely heavy oil.
It is more difficult (expensive) to get and must be refined in very different facilities.
It was not thought to be a reliable resource in the short term by those who understand it.
Lots to be done to reassure the oil companies that investment in Venezuela is worthwhile.