What if the Iran Military Action Is Really About MAGA?
Posted by freedomforall 3 days, 13 hours ago to Economics
Excerpt:
"Western Europe and China would lose significant power and wealth if Iran cedes to Trump’s demands. If China pays for oil with dollars, they will quickly burn through their currency reserves and the yuan would crater. Europe will become irrelevant. This is the real fight; Iran is just a proxy.
Trump has a window of time before he needs to produce results in front of the mid-term elections. I think the result is going to be a sharp drop in the price of oil and natural gas because I believe the US is going to succeed in the Persian Gulf.
Every day the blockade continues, inventories build on Kharg Island and the entire oil supply system in Iran backfills. They don’t have the benefit of time because they are running out of available inventory capacity. The next step will be the shut-in wells which means those wells will need to be re-drilled in the future. Without the export channel, Iran is drowning in its own oil.
...
Iran and China have been ignoring US sanctions for years even as these restrictions have created opportunities for our so-called “friends” in Europe to extract rent from this illicit trade. You don’t move 500 ships around the world’s oceans, particularly through the Straits of Malacca, without everyone knowing it.
Laundering the cash flow of the shadow fleet has been a boon to banks around the world, especially banks in Turkey and Dubai, but no longer. The UAE is seeking US dollar swap lines with the US because the conflict has cut oil cash flows.
Without the revenue generated by the shadow fleet, Iran is helpless and the global banks siphoning off that revenue become insolvent thus the need for dollar swap lines. This isn’t 2008 where the Federal Reserve effectively bailed out the world with dollar swap lines with central banks. The Trump Administration is destroying the life-blood of the Western banking system. Power is moving from Dubai and Singapore to Houston, which is becoming the center of the global energy market."
"Western Europe and China would lose significant power and wealth if Iran cedes to Trump’s demands. If China pays for oil with dollars, they will quickly burn through their currency reserves and the yuan would crater. Europe will become irrelevant. This is the real fight; Iran is just a proxy.
Trump has a window of time before he needs to produce results in front of the mid-term elections. I think the result is going to be a sharp drop in the price of oil and natural gas because I believe the US is going to succeed in the Persian Gulf.
Every day the blockade continues, inventories build on Kharg Island and the entire oil supply system in Iran backfills. They don’t have the benefit of time because they are running out of available inventory capacity. The next step will be the shut-in wells which means those wells will need to be re-drilled in the future. Without the export channel, Iran is drowning in its own oil.
...
Iran and China have been ignoring US sanctions for years even as these restrictions have created opportunities for our so-called “friends” in Europe to extract rent from this illicit trade. You don’t move 500 ships around the world’s oceans, particularly through the Straits of Malacca, without everyone knowing it.
Laundering the cash flow of the shadow fleet has been a boon to banks around the world, especially banks in Turkey and Dubai, but no longer. The UAE is seeking US dollar swap lines with the US because the conflict has cut oil cash flows.
Without the revenue generated by the shadow fleet, Iran is helpless and the global banks siphoning off that revenue become insolvent thus the need for dollar swap lines. This isn’t 2008 where the Federal Reserve effectively bailed out the world with dollar swap lines with central banks. The Trump Administration is destroying the life-blood of the Western banking system. Power is moving from Dubai and Singapore to Houston, which is becoming the center of the global energy market."
