UAE leaves OPEC . The deep state is panicking
Imagine a world where oil and gas is cheap and plentiful. No more cartel price manipulation. Terrorist no longer threaten energy supply.. With Sanctions removed three huge oil producers now will boost the supply , no breaks for Chyna anymore or Cuba. Pay up bitches . Fast track permits and red tape being cut. Drill baby drill !This curve already prices in some mean reversion. But the UAE move is the catalyst that should steepen that downward slope sharply and pull prices lower, faster.
Why this breaks OPEC’s grip faster than the market has fully digested
UAE is no small player. It’s OPEC’s third-largest producer (behind only Saudi Arabia and Iraq), with ~3–3.6 million barrels per day (mbpd) of current output but nameplate capacity of 4.8–5 mbpd (and plans to push higher). Under quotas it was artificially capped; now it’s free to maximize production for its own “national interests.” Analysts estimate it can add 1–1.5+ mbpd of incremental supply relatively quickly.
UAE has a built-in bypass around Hormuz. UAE operates the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, which ships 1.5–1.8 mbpd directly to the Gulf of Oman, completely avoiding Hormuz. This gives the UAE a unique ability to flood the market with extra barrels almost immediately once it cranks up the taps.
Cartel discipline just cracked wide open. OPEC+ has been holding back supply to keep prices elevated. Losing the UAE (a core Gulf heavyweight that has long chafed at Saudi-led quotas) signals the beginning of the end of unified production cuts. History shows cartel fractures lead to cheating, quota busting, and outright price wars. Multiple analysts are already warning this could trigger a “bitter struggle for market share” among Gulf producers, the UAE acting independently, and U.S. shale once the Iran-related disruptions ease.
The timing makes the drop faster than the futures curve implies
The futures curve I posted is a gradual glide path—reasonable under normal OPEC+ restraint.
The exit news is only 48–72 hours old. Markets haven’t fully repriced the structural supply shock yet.
High prices ($105+ WTI) are largely war-premium driven right now. Once that premium fades (and it will—wars don’t last forever), the UAE’s extra barrels hit an already-rebalancing market.
Higher prices themselves are self-correcting: they spur more U.S./non-OPEC supply and faster demand destruction. Add UAE’s unrestricted output on top and you get a supply glut sooner than the curve currently discounts.
Trump himself called the move “a good thing” that will ultimately lower the price of oil. Wall Street notes from Capital Economics, Reuters analysts, and others are already flagging medium-term downward pressure and a “structurally weaker OPEC."
Bottom line: The chart I shared is directionally right—but it’s still too polite. The UAE just lit a fuse under OPEC’s supply-control mechanism. Expect the futures curve to steepen downward faster, with nearer-term contracts (summer/fall 2026) getting dragged lower first as the extra barrels actually hit the water. This isn’t speculation; it’s basic supply-and-demand math once the cartel’s biggest recent dissident goes rogue.
Oil at $105+ was never sustainable once the biggest quota-breaker in the cartel walked out the door. The decline you’re seeing on that chart? It’s about to get a lot steeper.
Why this breaks OPEC’s grip faster than the market has fully digested
UAE is no small player. It’s OPEC’s third-largest producer (behind only Saudi Arabia and Iraq), with ~3–3.6 million barrels per day (mbpd) of current output but nameplate capacity of 4.8–5 mbpd (and plans to push higher). Under quotas it was artificially capped; now it’s free to maximize production for its own “national interests.” Analysts estimate it can add 1–1.5+ mbpd of incremental supply relatively quickly.
UAE has a built-in bypass around Hormuz. UAE operates the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, which ships 1.5–1.8 mbpd directly to the Gulf of Oman, completely avoiding Hormuz. This gives the UAE a unique ability to flood the market with extra barrels almost immediately once it cranks up the taps.
Cartel discipline just cracked wide open. OPEC+ has been holding back supply to keep prices elevated. Losing the UAE (a core Gulf heavyweight that has long chafed at Saudi-led quotas) signals the beginning of the end of unified production cuts. History shows cartel fractures lead to cheating, quota busting, and outright price wars. Multiple analysts are already warning this could trigger a “bitter struggle for market share” among Gulf producers, the UAE acting independently, and U.S. shale once the Iran-related disruptions ease.
The timing makes the drop faster than the futures curve implies
The futures curve I posted is a gradual glide path—reasonable under normal OPEC+ restraint.
The exit news is only 48–72 hours old. Markets haven’t fully repriced the structural supply shock yet.
High prices ($105+ WTI) are largely war-premium driven right now. Once that premium fades (and it will—wars don’t last forever), the UAE’s extra barrels hit an already-rebalancing market.
Higher prices themselves are self-correcting: they spur more U.S./non-OPEC supply and faster demand destruction. Add UAE’s unrestricted output on top and you get a supply glut sooner than the curve currently discounts.
Trump himself called the move “a good thing” that will ultimately lower the price of oil. Wall Street notes from Capital Economics, Reuters analysts, and others are already flagging medium-term downward pressure and a “structurally weaker OPEC."
Bottom line: The chart I shared is directionally right—but it’s still too polite. The UAE just lit a fuse under OPEC’s supply-control mechanism. Expect the futures curve to steepen downward faster, with nearer-term contracts (summer/fall 2026) getting dragged lower first as the extra barrels actually hit the water. This isn’t speculation; it’s basic supply-and-demand math once the cartel’s biggest recent dissident goes rogue.
Oil at $105+ was never sustainable once the biggest quota-breaker in the cartel walked out the door. The decline you’re seeing on that chart? It’s about to get a lot steeper.
Hmmm, will the US and UAE form a new "cartel" across the world? Only Trump knows...
Today: $105.71
101.94. -3.13. (-2.98%)
At close: May 1 at 4:59:59 PM EDT
The potential for much lower prices can be realized when all nations can operate in their own self interest and not be City of London puppets. OPEC will be a trivia Question in the near future. Same with NATO and more…
First, overall oil production (without Shale) is down.
We peaked a few years back.
Russia peaked almost 10 years ago.
Shale wells are fast acting, fast dying.
High Prices... Above $100/bbl is what makes exploration worthwhile.
Pay attention to time to find, time to build, time to drill, and time to first barrel of oil.
This can be 5 years. It's always measured in years. Not months!
And starting with Covid... Most of these companies stopped LOOKING for new oil.
Exploration dropped like 80% (opinion, I have no evidence other than reading Martenson).
Now, I am TORN. We hear about Peak Oil. Which Martenson believes, and has believed
since the 1980s. Based on Oil being a Fossil Fuel.
TBH, I no longer believe this. I believe the FORRESTS become sludge when compressed between heavy rocks. Trees are carbon, etc. etc. etc. (more so that dinosaurs of where there were NEVER enough to produce this amount of oil).
Meanwhile, our SPR is shot, just about spent. And we keep spending it to keep oil down.
Finally, it takes 45-60 days to get ships here, to either load or unload. And that process can take between 1 and 3 days per tanker.
The impacts of shutting down the Gulf of Hormuz is ONLY NOW beginning to be felt.
Oil NEEDS to be higher.
Oil likely needs to be $150/b... To encourage finding more.
I cannot know if we are truly at peak oil. But I do know the amount of it is Finite.
And at some point, the cost of getting it will so far exceed the current price per barrel that we will be forced to change how we treat it!
At least Global Warming is dying off as the biggest concern.
(And on Cue... Gore showed up preaching a potential Ice Age, IKYN)
I never heard an explanation of how the dinosaurs got down a mile or two below the surface in the first place.
I heard/read that the dinosaur Theory originated with Rockefeller because he thought that would make oil appear to be a limited commodity and therefore could charge higher prices.
Well, we know you can sequester a LOT of CO2 in the soil as well. Light a forest on fire, and it leaves Charcoal behind (lol).
When Washington state privatized liquor stores, the prices actually skyrocketed due to more taxes getting tacked on.
And the Liquor Control Board had the gall to blame it on the retailers.