Excerpt:
"In my article ‘Iran vs Israel: What Happens Next Now That Shots Have Been Fired?’, published in April of 2024, I predicted:

“I have little doubt that Israel will commit to extensive aerial strikes on Iran this year or early in 2025, and we’ll see very quickly if Russian air defense technology sold to the Iranians is effective or ineffective…

The Israeli public position will be that their strikes are focused on taking down any existing Iranian nuclear labs. There is no solid evidence that Iran has made much headway in developing nukes (they might have dirty bombs), but the notion of nukes is more than enough in terms of public relations and justification for the war…”

Trump has always been the wild card, and he still is to some extent. His comments on the nuclear negotiations suggest that he is continuing to push for a peace agreement, but Israel put the kibosh on any diplomatic plan when they assassinated multiple Iranian military leaders (Mohammad Bagheri, Hossein Salami, Gholamali Rashid, Amir Ali Hajizadeh, Fereydoon Abbasi). There’s no going back after the direct targeting of so many high ranking officials, and that may have been Israel’s intention.

This is the same strategy Israel used against Lebanon in the now infamous “pager bombings”. To be sure, Israel’s ability to infiltrate enemy governments and gain strike ready knowledge on their leadership is impressive, but in some ways it’s also desperate. These are guerrilla tactics, not the tactics of a country confident in its ability to win a conventional war.
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The reality is, just like Ukraine, Israel cannot win a protracted war without aid from the US. In order for them to execute an actual ground invasion of Iran (not to mention Lebanon and a host of other regions throughout the Middle East) they will need US weapons and troops.

As I’ve mentioned over and over again, I really don’t care about either side. I don’t care about Gaza, I don’t care about Iran, I don’t care if Israel succeeds or fails. I also find Islamic fundamentalism to be authoritarian, degenerate and parasitic to the west, but if they stay in the Middle East then it’s not really my concern. I don’t care about ancient tribal vendettas.

I find people with an overt hatred of Israel politically suspicious, and I find people who worship Israel as if their government is devoid of corruption politically suspicious. I find anyone that demands I pick a side politically suspicious. I find leftist activists that hijack Muslim causes suspicious and reprehensible. I don’t care what goes on in the Middle East, and I think most conservatives agree with me.

What I do care about is America and Americans. It’s clear that Israel NEEDS the US deeply involved in any long term war with Iran, and this is where I have a problem. Everyone wants the US to fight their wars for them and the scheming is growing tiresome."