Why I think the Galt Misses the Point on Decentralized rypto

Posted by CaptainKirk 1 year, 3 months ago to Economics
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I am 100% okay with getting flamed and being called names and told that this is all a big scam.
It has ZERO value, etc. etc. etc.

But please hear me out. In fact, I don't completely disagree with you, I started where you stand!

We need some form of money. Which must be a store of value (unlike the dollar).
And I ASK you to ignore BOTH the current instability of BTC pricing, and the difficulties in using it. [for now].

What were used, in the past, for money? (Glass beads, shells, various coins, etc. etc. etc.)
And what happens over time (People shave the coins (hence the ridges), people counterfeit the paper,
the English even came to an island with a bunch of glass beads. Bankers use inflation, and debt is used
to enslave us).

I am VERY confident that everyone here is a solid believer that GOLD/SILVER would work just fine.
(Even better if it wasn't so dang heavy... But I've seen plastic bills with pressed gold foil inside)...

The point is. WE NEED a money and a CURRENCY (something we actually spend) that we can TRUST.
We cannot Trust: CBDCs, the Dollar, etc. etc. etc.

But MANY people here REFUSE to consider trusting BTC, because it's "software".
The reality is. It is an IMPOSSIBLE to counterfeit currency. It's #1 drawback is that you can lose access to it because of some failure to keep the password. The #2 is the ability to have someone strong-arm your password from you... And I agree...

But in all honesty. I think if the Gulch [Which digital currencies allow to be geographically disconnected], used crypto as part of their "going on strike" from the rigged system... They would realize it solves a few problems.
Far more than it creates.

Yes, it requires Electricity, Internet, and Devices to transact. (Just like Credit Cards do).
And MAYBE we need some level of Coinage. I agree this is a weakness.

But here are the Strengths:
1) It's impossible to counterfeit! EVEN by Governments and by COURTS.
2) Once it's EVERYWHERE, it makes more sense to use it, then to try to go around it. [Chicken/Egg, I know]
3) It's trust is the SIMPLE fact that if you had MILLIONS in it, and you felt the network was at risk. You, too, could setup a few miners, to help keep the network DECENTRALIZED.

FWIW, I am not sold on PoS (Proof of Stake). This is where you put up money and you RISK that money to authenticate transactions... In such a way that if you try to approve (back door) a fraudulent transaction, your are penalized by having the money you Staked taken from you. [Reality: Some players have enough $$$ that they can afford to lose that money in order to "break" the system].

In PoW (Proof of Work), you solve tough math problems, and the first ones done get the reward (more coins).
This is why it is called Mining. You don't get an outsized amount of coins. In fact the difficult and price can be tracked. Miners are EFFECTIVELY Converting Electricity to Coins via a dollar cost averaging function. And this is a TOTAL DEMOCRATIC Approach. You join other miners, and you mine. You make some money for mining. But there are literally TOO MANY Miners for someone to sneak in and start trying to get "Bogus" transactions to be validated. Every ONE of these miners has EVERY TRANSACTION on them. The SECURITY is that the system is spread out. And that a bunch of RANDOM miners will have to validate your transaction.

Even China could not corner the market on mining in such a way as to corrupt it.

Yes. It is ONLY WORTH what the market says it is. BUT it is also back-stopped by what it costs to MINE new BTCs. Because if you are mining it, and it costs you $35,000 to mine 1 BTC. You have ZERO incentive to sell that at a loss. Much less a huge loss.

And I guess that's the final piece. It will be REALLY hard to manipulate when it is fully adopted.
Full adoption means the price fluctuations are gone.

Gold, Silver, Stocks, Bonds. These are all heavily manipulated.

And the final feature. Imagine the government tries to claim they lost 100,000 BTC last year,
and have no idea where it went.

Um, lets trace those transactions... AND Along the way, lets make sure that taxes were paid/collected.
Lets see. You gave a ton to XYZ Corp, what did they deliver? Where's the contract? (Oh, they were overpaid by 10x and didn't notice... LOL).

TBH... That final piece is why we should FORCE our government to use BTC.
And it's what I HATE about ME USING BTC... I don't want my transactions traceable like that.
But I would still want a Credit Card I use for transactions. And then Settle monthly for BTC.
The ONLY thing that would be public is I paid XXX Visa.

I think that's fine. But it still has a choke point. And that's the CC company.
BTC cannot be reversed. You spend it, it is gone. Escrow type services will be huge again.

Anyways. I throw these thoughts at this group.
Here are my questions:
1) If it were WELL ESTABLISHED and STABLE in it's value [changes would reflect the OTHER currencies inflation] and it proved to be a storehouse WOULD you use it then? (Why/Why Not)
2) If it guaranteed we could see where the government money was going, would you want the GOVT to be forced to use it?
3) What is a realistic Alternative? (That can't be counterfeited, and could you leave the country if all of your wealth was converted to that? Safely?)

Thanks in advance. I think this discussion is worth having.
And I have my concerns. But they are not with the safety/security of the asset.


All Comments


Previous comments...   You are currently on page 2.
  • Posted by Dobrien 1 year, 3 months ago in reply to this comment.
    Yes . The gold backed system does not work when the money printed does not have the gold to back it up. The US govt reneged on a promise.
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  • Posted by 1 year, 3 months ago in reply to this comment.
    You made my argument.
    Energy is a substitute for human time.
    Especially when combined with Machinery.

    And once you have all of these FANCY Machines and robots you speak of. What happens without electricity, fuel?

    Take any advanced economy. Show me their GDP, show me their energy consumption. GRAPH them together. It's a tight correlation.
    Now drive Energy Consumption to ZERO because it cannot be afforded, or found.
    ONLY Human labor. No gasoline, oil, electricity.

    What happens to GDP?

    Energy is THE Master Resource.
    Not Money. If any currency stopped existing, but energy was still flowing. things work. A new currency will be quickly implemented.

    But stop the energy flowing.
    Imagine the average household having $100K cash in the bank.

    But nationwide. ZERO Electricity.
    No Gas, No Fuel.

    Those on farms would last the longest.
    (especially if they had some animals).

    But everything stops.

    THIS is why I BELIEVE they are going after CO2 (it's the effect of using energy, even by humans, giving them the "right" to tax us for breathing).

    Energy has a cost.
    If that cost gets too high, stagflation from the 70s is back.

    It's our biggest risk. And we are more worried about Gender Names.
    ==

    BTW, everything CANNOT become dirt chieap.
    They are already talking about INCOME TAX for each robot employed.
    The $15/hr minimum wage is something the government WANTS because it guarantees you pay taxes at that income level.

    If prices go down, tax revenues go down.
    If incomes go down because nobody needs to work, then tax revenues REALLY go down.
    I don't see TPTB allowing this.
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  • Posted by 1 year, 3 months ago in reply to this comment.
    To be clear. This is where BTC is at right now.
    It's true value is being established as the number of participants are increasing.

    I will be honest, I think there are way too few BTC. But I realize their goal was that Satoshi's would be the quoted price in the future.

    As you grope around with your ideas... You are getting to the core issues. Decentralized. Trustless. Exchangeable. Divisible. Relatively efficient/quick. (Remember when paying with a CC was SLOWER than using cash? I do. They opened a BOOK and SCANNED IT to see if the card had been cancelled... LOL)

    Back to pricing things like my time. I've refused to work for BTC, and I won't contract to pay someone in BTC until the price stabilizes, or the price negotiation would have to happen MONTHLY... I'd be bankrupt. BTC was $5k when I got started. If I agreed to pay my employee 100k in BTC (meaning 20 BTC). Well, by the end of that year, BTC was like $25k each. If I did not buy them all up front, I would have had to file bankruptcy.

    Stability has to work its way into the system.
    Of course, we think the USD is stable because we are USD Centric (and most of the world is because it WAS the reserve currency). But as that changes... We are going to see more wild fluctuations in USD.
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  • Posted by 1 year, 3 months ago in reply to this comment.
    The spiral is NOT because of psychology. If the money printing stops, there is going to be some whiplash in the system and after some time all the spiraling will dampen out to have the prices arrive at a stable point once again.

    We disagree then.
    First Money IS Psychology. That's why poor people who win the lottery end up worse off. The two are intertwined.

    Second. PLEASE NAME One Country where the hyperinflation was stopped reasonably once it started?

    Every case I Know of, the devaluations are wicked.

    Yes, inflation is the cause, but usually NEVER the trigger. The trigger is that realization (by people en masse) that they are better off spending their money than saving it.

    Look at our situation. Our USD has lost 97% of its purchasing power. That seems pretty severe... But it's happening slow enough and things are still available.
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  • Posted by nonconformist 1 year, 3 months ago in reply to this comment.
    I see profit as follows: Profit is, more or less, the difference between your closest competitor's price and your own price (if not enforced by violence with the help of government monopoly). Profit CAN happen legitimately, and is usually a result of R&D into increasing productivity. Profit is usually temporary, until your competitor figures out what you are doing and clones it.
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  • Posted by nonconformist 1 year, 3 months ago in reply to this comment.
    Yes, I've heard about the energy argument. No, I don't agree with it.

    Energy is a resource. Oil is a resource. When you pay somebody for oil, you are not actually paying them for the physical thing. You are paying them for the SERVICE of pulling it out of the ground. Why? Because free market allows competition and competition lowers prices until they cannot go any lower. Why can't they go any lower? Because it becomes not worth their time to the person performing the extraction service. So, you are actually paying for somebody to do the work for you, not for the physical thing itself.

    If oil existed but nobody was making use of it, then it wouldn't do any good to you. What is the price of energy when it is sitting in the ground and not being used? Zero.

    The reason why original societies were so poor was not because they didn't have oil. It was because their productivity was shit. They had the same amount of time but they could not do much with it. Technology allowed them to be more productive and more rich.

    When robots and AI are fully developed and deployed, everything will become dirt cheap. Why? Because you don't have to pay humans for their time, robots took their jobs. Robots don't have agency and don't have to be paid. Productivity will go off the scale. GDP will have a nuclear explosion. Even with the same amount of energy, everything will become dirt cheap. Why? Because you are not paying for energy, you are paying for human time.

    The only exception to the above that I can think of is when resources are physically limited. Then prices will appear to have a non-human-time component to them, although, there is a case to be made that it still will relate to human time if you do a deep analysis on it.
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  • Posted by nonconformist 1 year, 3 months ago in reply to this comment.
    'By Hyperinflation starts when you HAVE SO LITTLE TRUST that the currency will hold it's value, that you THROW your money at "THINGS".'

    The only reason why you would have so little trust in the currency's value IS because it is getting devalued PHYSICALLY. The lack of trust doesn't just come out of nowhere.

    All these strange psychological behaviors are CAUSED by money PHYSICALLY getting printed into oblivion.

    The spiral is NOT because of psychology. If the money printing stops, there is going to be some whiplash in the system and after some time all the spiraling will dampen out to have the prices arrive at a stable point once again. The spiral continues because the parasites continue to predate on society.

    The only requirement of hyperinflation is an exponential increase in the monetary base. FOMO isn't required. "Just inflation" is when you have a linear increase in the monetary base. At least that is how I understand it.
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  • Posted by nonconformist 1 year, 3 months ago in reply to this comment.
    "I do believe that everything will be digitally titled."

    The problem with CBDCs (and such) is not that it is digital or whatever. The problem is the built in state backdoor with special privileges that allow predation/slavery. Also that it is compulsory, enforced with the threat of death.

    Easy fix: voluntarism.
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  • Posted by nonconformist 1 year, 3 months ago in reply to this comment.
    "It literally has that feel now that you described the insurance process to ensure price stability."

    I don't actually care too much about price stability for individual items. If productivity goes up, the price SHOULD go down. If demand for item goes up, the price SHOULD go up (temporarily, until the producer ramps up production). However, price for items should not change without a permissible factor. I guess what I care about is the 'store of value' property of money.

    The insurance companies will need to figure out how to make sure they don't lose money due to backing asset price volatility. If the price goes up for the item, they aren't going to suffer. However, if the price goes down, they will have to ask their customer to pay up. If their customer doesn't pay up, then they are the ones on the hook for it. If the insurance company doesn't cover, the wallet providers and users will just evict them from their wallets' trusted parties list. That will cause loss to the current holders of their tokens but somebody has to get hit with the loss in my system.
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  • Posted by 1 year, 3 months ago in reply to this comment.
    Again, the lesson from Terra Luna and the stock market.

    FLOAT determines the price.
    So, if I can sell 10% of my position, and drive prices lower. I can force a DEFAULT in my OPPONENTS, triggering their sell orders, creating more pressure.

    If the value is "truly" higher, then I, who started it all, just buy back 3-5 times my original sell, and I've managed to dollar cost average BELOW Market.

    This crap happens ALL the time.
    In fact, if you watch the market closely, you will see huge volume spikes in some stocks at the CLOSE. This is because Market Makers are allowed to trade OFF BOOK all day long, then bring the VOLUME of trades back onto the exchange at the end of the day, so nobody can front run them.

    It's a complex system. It requires simulation.
    Complex systems have EMERGENT behaviors.
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  • Posted by nonconformist 1 year, 3 months ago in reply to this comment.
    "The tokenization will be centrally managed, like communism"

    No, that is incorrect. I was actually imagining the whole scheme running on some system similar to a cryptocurrency with some additional bits mixed in. You would have a decentralized protocol, multiple open source implementations of wallets and insurance software. Blockchain may also be very helpful. I have given some thought to the technical aspect of it, however, I haven't yet decided on a particular configuration of concepts that will make this work. Obviously, there are multiple ways to make it work, each of which has its pros and cons.

    I myself am an ancap/volutarist and an individualist and would be opposed to state enforced anything and/or collectivism. I think of my system as existing in a free market without centralization. The insurance companies would be separate entities and tokens signed by them may not be accepted by all wallets. The wallet providers and their users would have to decide which insurance companies are worthy.
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  • Posted by nonconformist 1 year, 3 months ago in reply to this comment.
    "Also realize that the system could be attacked by outside forces that buy slowly, and then DUMP Quickly. Offering up the asset BELOW costs, to bankrupt the insurer, and trip other clauses."

    I don't think this situation you describe is a successful attack strategy.

    Let's assume a party has been slowly buying houses at price of X. Then, they decide to start dumping their houses all at once. This causes the prices to fall. So, the new price slides down to X0.5. The thing is, they are going to lose money by doing that. The last house they sell is going to be priced at X0.5 but they initially bought it for X. So, how are they winning here?

    Insurance companies are not going to be hurt by this strategy. They will likely have a hedge position that would go up when houses go down, assuming tokens backed by houses is what they are insuring. Additionally, what they will do is they will use their fund to buy up houses on the cheap. Then, they will wait for the price to raise back to X and will start to slowly sell the houses. So, they will win in this situation. Also, it is likely going to be the case that only a small portion of the value of the houses going to be backing the circulating tokens, because they will have a volatility margin and not the entire allowed backing amount will be backing the circulating tokens. So, there is very little risk in this situation. Of course, the risk will exist and supposedly they will calculate it properly and have a fund dedicated to covering any potentially sticky situation.
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  • Posted by nonconformist 1 year, 3 months ago in reply to this comment.
    I don't think Terra Luna is comparable to my scheme. It was a completely different scheme.

    You can do certain things in my scheme to make sure tokens hold the same value:
    1. Don't use items with high price volatility to back your tokens.
    2. Don't use items that have too much depreciation to back your tokens.
    3. Don't use the whole value value of your item to back your tokens, leave a healthy margin for volatility.
    4. Pay down overextended tokens.
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  • Posted by 1 year, 3 months ago in reply to this comment.
    Hmmm... Actually GDP charts perfectly with energy consumption. Now you MIGHT argue energy/time but that is more about effectiveness/efficiency IMO.

    So, energy (Horse Power). Or original societies were limited in what we could accomplish by just HUMAN energy. Then TOOLS came, and became a multiplier. Then beasts of Burden. Then Machines, then electricity (as an input into machines) or other fuels.

    Which is why I laugh when inflation does not include FOOD and ENERGY. Which is... ALL ENERGY.

    Even food is effectively captured energy.

    Selling for a profit is not predation (not that you said that). But "Rent Seeking" is... (That is using your POSITION to declare a fee is required to play/participate).

    Interesting thoughts.
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  • Posted by nonconformist 1 year, 3 months ago in reply to this comment.
    My understanding of finances is that it has nothing to do with physical items. The root of value is human time. We all exchange each other's time. Our time can be converted to physical items. It can also be in non-physical things, such as information (produced using our time). Music, software, companies, services, etc.

    The IOUs that I am thinking of are about facilitating exchange of time among members of society. The tokens-backed-by-existing-wealth thing is only a gimmick to keep the prices stable and prevent cheating.

    In my system, the insurance companies play an important role in the minting of tokens. Additionally, the tokens should be publicly verifiable. So, when you do your transaction, your wallet software would do the verification to make sure the tokens are valid. Alternatively, the miners (ones producing blocks) may be ones responsible for doing verification. Any "false" tokens would be rejected.

    By the way, I consider all states (governments? countries?) to be immoral. Any fraud or violence is wrong, no matter who dishes it out. Monopoly on violence is violence. No person or organization has the right to decree laws but logic and reason. The "forefathers" were statists, and so is the constitution. I guess it is a step in the right direction, but it has a long way to go before I will completely agree with it.

    There is a lot of human predation happening in society. It takes place in all levels of society: the financial sector, the government, etc. It is a miracle that the thing (society) is able to continue existing. The day when predation is eradicated is the day when humanity will be finally liberated.
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  • Posted by 1 year, 3 months ago in reply to this comment.
    Go research the Terra Luna debacle. You cannot insure price stability.
    The price of the insurance required would be devastating.

    Also realize that the system could be attacked by outside forces that buy slowly, and then DUMP Quickly. Offering up the asset BELOW costs, to bankrupt the insurer, and trip other clauses.

    Finally, if you pull back and think about what you are saying... It could be restated as:
    "The tokenization will be centrally managed, like communism"

    It literally has that feel now that you described the insurance process to ensure price stability.

    The reality is that price is a discovery process that changes over time. The value of a new TIRE is significantly different 3 months before I need new tires, and on the side of the road on a busy street, or the side of the road 400 miles from everything.

    I do believe that everything will be digitally titled. And along with the title, you will be able to have a digital representation that they will let you load into one of many metaverses (things I hope to never be involved in)....
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  • Posted by 1 year, 3 months ago in reply to this comment.
    I think you missed the point of the psychological piece. Let me be clear.

    Inflation is near constant in this fake world (In a natural world, progress is always deflationary, because we stand on the shoulders of those before us).

    By Hyperinflation starts when you HAVE SO LITTLE TRUST that the currency will hold it's value, that you THROW your money at "THINGS".
    And by throw, I mean, you buy whatever you can. And you are willing to pay ABOVE the ASK to get the thing, because going home with your cash, literally means you will be able to buy less tomorrow.

    In Weimar Germany, shops raised their prices to cover costs. And they bought as much inventory as they could afford. The cycle starts. Then LESS flour is available, so they outbid everyone to buy more flour. But they will price that into their bread.

    The people buying their bread will see the line forming, and the bidding wars start, raising the price of the bread. The SANE person you think of... JOINS the insanity when they NEED bread, and have BUNDLES of "currency". Because coming home without food is an undesirable option.

    Once that game starts... It plays out like the HOUSING BUBBLE. With people LISTING a house for DOUBLE what they paid for it 2yrs ago, and it selling for 20% ABOVE that price in 24-48hrs.

    FOMO: Fear Of Missing Out... It's a REQUIREMENT to by Hyperinflation.
    Otherwise, it's just Inflation. It could be 200% or 800% inflation. That's just inflation.
    The death spiral is when the PSYCHOLOGY changes and people REALIZE there is NO SAVING MONEY, there is very little value in money. AND it is WIDESPREAD.

    It's hard to call it Hyperinflation when only 4 people in the whole country are behaving that way.
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  • Posted by nonconformist 1 year, 3 months ago in reply to this comment.
    "It should not be static, though."

    The prices for goods naturally fluctuate based on supply and demand for those specific goods. What I'm talking about is something else, it is having the value of 1 unit of "token" not change, on average.

    You really don't want inflation or deflation.

    When you have inflation, the poor suffer and the rich get more rich. When you have deflation, the reverse happens. You want fairness in the system, which is why you need the value of your currency to be as stable as possible.
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  • Posted by nonconformist 1 year, 3 months ago in reply to this comment.
    "Hyperinflation is a Psychological Issue."

    Not really. I disagree. It is rather mechanical. If it was only in people's heads then what would happen is everyone raises their prices until everybody cannot buy or sell anything (because on average nobody will have enough currency). Then, they will have to lower prices back down to a level where people now have enough money to afford stuff.

    Hyperinflation is when producers raise their prices but there is still enough money that SOMEBODY has (those that are closest to the money printer) that keeps buying their stuff. So, they keep raising prices. The money printing continues to increase because those guys keep needing more and more money to buy the same amount of stuff. This causes money supply to grow exponentially. Without money printing there is no hyperinflation.

    Hyperinflation would be impossible in my system because in order to mint tokens you need to produce the matching amount of wealth and insure it. If you do that too much, prices for the stuff you produce is going to fall, and so would your tokens devalue slightly, forcing the insurance company to raise insurance rate and bankrupting you. Basically, my system is self-correcting.
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  • Posted by nonconformist 1 year, 3 months ago in reply to this comment.
    "your system suffers from one flaw and that is that to TRANSACT with others, you often have to AGREE on the "currency" for the "value". How do you price someones time?"

    The exact price amount doesn't matter. It only matters relative to everything else. Initially, nobody will know what anything should cost, so, it will be a chaotic start. But, over time, the value of 1 unit of "token" will settle to some average. It would be the insurance companies that would act as a force that would balance the value of 1 unit of "token", or so I theorize.

    The prices for specific products and services (or human time required to produce them) would be set by supply and demand.
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  • Posted by nonconformist 1 year, 3 months ago in reply to this comment.
    "if Bezos found a Gold Asteroid. The "value" of gold SHOULD decline..."

    That's the problem. The gold backed currency would hyperinflate. Prices for everything else would go up. There is going to be a wealth transfer to Bezos. That's no good.

    But, if your currency was priced to ALL wealth, the tokens that were backed by gold would be replaced over time by insurance companies that insured them with tokens that are backed by something else (due to loss of value) and the value of the currency would stay the same along with the prices for everything else.
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  • Posted by 1 year, 3 months ago in reply to this comment.
    The problem with bitcoin is that it has a fixed number of tokens. As more and more people start using it to exchange more and more goods, the value of bitcoin increases.

    Actually, this is why a SATOSHI is 10^-8 of 1 BTC. ONCE BTC consumes 100% of the oil markets, for example, it's price will stabilize.
    (it will likely be very high per BTC).

    My view is that a Satoshi will be roughly $10 of value when BTC is used as a BRICS type currency.

    The challenge of using other tokens is that you need mining for each type of token, and controls. You must make sure someone cannot MINT new "false" ones or cheat the auditors matching to physical.

    If tokens are IOUs... They become Claims (future Claims on physical items).

    But I like the fact that you are thinking about it.
    THIS is what our forefathers were doing before creating our constitution...

    Do you understand the basics of M1 (Gov Bonds), M2 (Fed Mulitplier), and M3 (Fed Window Multiplier) money supply

    Realizing that M2 is hard to get...
    You can think of M3 as the AVERAGE LEVERAGE of all banks (15:1) and multiply that by the Government Debt.
    That's how much money is floating around in Dollars. And any attempt to reduce that causes massive deflationary pressures which will destroy the banks (ponzi schemes requiring every increasing dollar inflation).

    In fact, if the US govt ran the FED window.
    We could be completely out of debt. (Because the govt interest paid is on 1x multipler, but the interest collected is a 15x multiplier).

    When people realize this. They should realize that the bankers have been stealing us blind forever.
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  • Posted by 1 year, 3 months ago in reply to this comment.
    In reality if Bezos found a Gold Asteroid. The "value" of gold SHOULD decline... Based on how much he introduced into the system.

    I like the tokenization concept.
    And in reality, your system suffers from one flaw and that is that to TRANSACT with others, you often have to AGREE on the "currency" for the "value". How do you price someones time?

    Hyperinflation is a Psychological Issue. It happens QUICKLY because EVERYONE realizes "I would rather have than hold these dollars, because I will be able to barter for more dollars later". It becomes a race to the bottom for assets (spending every more $s just to close a deal. Think about the housing market when people were offering A LOT above the asking price to get the contract). Then add an accelerant.

    It should not be static, though.
    In reality, markets need a level of inefficiency in order to operate. Nat Gas is worth LESS in the summer than the winter. And you have to store it. So price fluctuations are normal/expected.
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