15

Is 2022 The Year of Breakdown?

Posted by freedomforall 3 weeks ago to Technology
28 comments | Share | Flag

Excerpt:
"If we look at the fragility and instability of essential systems, it's clear that 2022 will be the year of breakdown. Let's start by reviewing how systems break down, a process I've simplified into the graphic below.

1. Regardless of whether it was planned or not, all systems are optimized to process specific inputs to generate specific outputs. Each system is pared down to maximize efficiency as the means to maximize profits. This efficiency in service of maximizing profits requires trade-offs that only become visible when some key part of the system fails.

The system that ships containers around the world offers a useful example. Shipping containers revolutionized shipping and reduced costs by commoditizing containers (all standard sizes), container ships (specifically designed to carry thousands of containers and container ports with specifically designed cranes, docks and truck lanes / queueing.

It's possible to load a container on some other craft with a jury-rigged crane, but the efficiency of that is essentially a fraction of the optimized system: the jury-rigged crane will only be able to load a handful of containers, the ship will only be able to carry a few containers, and the likelihood of the containers shifting increases.

The infrastructure and labor are both highly specialized. Calling out the National Guard to speed up container offloading is a useless gesture unless the Guard can deliver more cranes and experienced operators.

The greater the optimization, the greater the fragility as the breaking of any one link brings the entire system to a halt. Throwing in equipment and labor that the system isn't designed to use will fail.

Virtually every essential system has been stripped of redundancy, resilience, reserves and adaptability as the means to fully optimize inputs, processes and outputs. The system works well if every link in the dependency chain is working perfectly. Should one link go down, the entire system goes down."
SOURCE URL: http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2021/12/2022-year-of-breakdown.html


Add Comment

FORMATTING HELP

All Comments Hide marked as read Mark all as read

  • Posted by mhubb 3 weeks ago
    the US cannot sustain the level of debt, level of giving stuff to people that do not belong here and our own home grown parasite class

    add in unconstitutional and senseless restrictions on We the People

    the pot has been locked down
    at some point the cover will blow off
    Reply | Mark as read | Best of... | Permalink  
  • Posted by GaryL 2 weeks, 5 days ago
    The only thing I can say is those much younger than many here are the ones pushing all the free stuff and they will be the ones who suffer from it. With well over $30 Trillion in debt that can never be paid back we are doomed for failure but probably not in the lifetime I have left.
    Reply | Mark as read | Best of... | Permalink  
    • Posted by term2 2 weeks, 5 days ago
      u never know when the rubber band will break. Could be 10 years, or 1 year depending on what happens in terms of spending and peoples' reactions to inflation. I am already cutting back on buying stuff, as I think inflation is far more than the 7% they are claiming already.
      Reply | Mark as read | Parent | Best of... | Permalink  
      • Posted by $ Markus_Katabri 2 weeks, 4 days ago
        Actual inflation that I can calculate just with my own buying seems to be around %12. From last year.
        The myth of “overrun” hospitals is also a nice little piece of propaganda. The “system” is designed to operate at 80%-90% capacity. That’s the sweet spot for profit. So an additional 10% in the grand scheme of things is really not that unusual. But now the media has to call attention to it to drive the desired narrative.
        Reply | Mark as read | Parent | Best of... | Permalink  
  • Posted by $ blarman 2 weeks, 5 days ago
    And unfortunately for the rest of us, this is precisely what the Progressives want. They want to burn everything down and start over because they envision a utopia built by their own hands, or rather a utopia built by slave labor to emphasize their own delusions of grandeur. What they can not comprehend is that the notion of a utopia based on a government of control is a farce beyond farces. And yet they do not care.
    Reply | Mark as read | Best of... | Permalink  
    • Posted by term2 2 weeks, 5 days ago
      thats why I call Bidens plan as "tear down faster". There is no building back under socialism
      Reply | Mark as read | Parent | Best of... | Permalink  
      • Posted by $ blarman 2 weeks, 4 days ago
        It was very interesting reading "The Gulag Archipelago." One of the things which was mentioned was that several of the maintenance engineers for public works were honest, decent people just trying to do a better job. Instead, they were prosecuted and sent to the Gulag for doing just that - all the while basic services like water, electricity, etc. deteriorated because they couldn't get parts to fix the machinery due to bureaucratic waste. So typical of leftists.
        Reply | Mark as read | Parent | Best of... | Permalink  
        • Posted by term2 2 weeks, 2 days ago
          Assuming that our country doesnt go to war with bhina, russia, north korea, or iran, the best thing that could have happened to the USA is the election of Obama. It is showing the abject stupidity of the left and their inability to actually run a government.
          Reply | Mark as read | Parent | Best of... | Permalink  
          • Posted by $ blarman 2 weeks, 2 days ago
            Sometimes it takes that large foam cluebat of Reality upside the head to wake some people up. Others remain oblivious, unfortunately while others revel in complicity. It is as if a large portion of the population simply refuses to use that marvelous intelligence with which the race of man is uniquely endowed, preferring instead their base emotions. So sad - especially for the rest of us!
            Reply | Mark as read | Parent | Best of... | Permalink  
            • Posted by term2 2 weeks, 1 day ago
              I would think that 7% reduction in the value of the dollar would kick people in the hind end. If you had 60k in income or salted away for retirement, thats like $4200 that just got stolen from each of us
              Reply | Mark as read | Parent | Best of... | Permalink  
              • Posted by $ blarman 1 week, 5 days ago
                While I agree, unfortunately most people don't understand the true implications of inflation. Most couldn't even give you a definition if they tried. It's just one more way in which the public education system fails students on critical concepts.
                Reply | Mark as read | Parent | Best of... | Permalink  
                • Posted by term2 1 week, 5 days ago
                  public education system is designed to only teach what assists the government in its policies. Teaching about inflation would be definitely NOT on the agenda
                  Reply | Mark as read | Parent | Best of... | Permalink  
                  • Posted by $ blarman 1 week, 5 days ago
                    My dad (retired electrical engineer) used to teach remedial algebra to college students - many of them athletes. One of his favorite things to teach was the principle of compound interest which most of them had never heard of. After one of these classes, a particular student stood up and cut up his credit card on the spot.
                    Reply | Mark as read | Parent | Best of... | Permalink  
                    • Posted by term2 5 days, 21 hours ago
                      inflation is another one that isnt taught. its just plain theft by politicians and it should result in the politicians put in jail for theft
                      Reply | Mark as read | Parent | Best of... | Permalink  
                      • Posted by $ blarman 4 days, 22 hours ago
                        100% agree. Yet its been a standard policy of the Federal Reserve since its inception. You'd think they were thieves or something.

                        Oh, right. They ARE.
                        Reply | Mark as read | Parent | Best of... | Permalink  
                        • Posted by term2 4 days, 21 hours ago
                          they are giving the populace from whom they steal, a chance to think that its only "the others" who pay for the printed money, while they themselves get to spend it....
                          Reply | Mark as read | Parent | Best of... | Permalink  
              • Posted by 2 weeks, 1 day ago
                And that has been going on for 109 years.
                It's revolting.
                Reply | Mark as read | Parent | Best of... | Permalink  
                • Posted by term2 2 weeks, 1 day ago
                  I lived thru the 70% and the outcry was a lot. I would say that even a continuous 7% is going to produce a lot of pushback. Its really already closer to 10% if calculated the real way. I just left costco and just got essentially normal things I usually get- this time the bill was $500. Blew my mind
                  Reply | Mark as read | Parent | Best of... | Permalink  
  • Posted by Owlsrayne 2 weeks, 4 days ago
    The whole system is breaking down now, at this moment. The stores in the next town from where I live that has a WalMart, Dollar 25 store, & etc; the shelves in these stores are empty or limited supply of certain products. Even the local supermarkets have shelves empty even bread is in limited supply. Next time I go out to the supermarkets I'm going to take photo's and send them to Senator Sinema, with a comment that the lack of products in the stores looks like the markets in the old Soviet Union.
    Reply | Mark as read | Best of... | Permalink  
    • Posted by term2 2 weeks, 2 days ago
      even with a Trump in office, they did a shutdown of the economy, resulting in a breakdown of the just in time efficiencies of the economy.We are just seeing the results, and it will take awhile longer for the economy to take into account the new leftist rules and re establish the balance between production, delivery, and demand. Leftists are great at tearing down, but completely useless in the building back part.
      Reply | Mark as read | Parent | Best of... | Permalink  
  • Posted by $ katrinam41 2 weeks, 5 days ago
    This is something the msm will never talk about. Ffa, you have an ability to see the relevant and communicate necessary information. The country indeed the world, has reached that point of no return and just one small slip will create an unstoppable avalanche of failing, collapsing systems. One gentleman who writes for PJ Media put it very simply. "Go home 2022. You're already drunk." If you haven't prepped yet, get busy. It's almost too late.
    Reply | Mark as read | Best of... | Permalink  
  • Posted by term2 2 weeks, 5 days ago
    being an engineer, I agree with you totally. Everything eventually runs on just in time to reduce unneeded costs.

    A break in one supply or service chain upsets the whole enchilada and it spreads outwards to many other areas until new supply and service chains are re-established. Biden is STUPID to upset the supply chains and get government involved to change things even more.

    Requiring vaccination on a schedule is a great way to break a labor supply chain and force companies to try and hire people to replace ones it had to fire for not getting vaccinated.

    Unleashing inflation is a great way to cut economic real output as people decide NOT to spend so much money. I just went to costco and was amazed by the $500 bill I got at the register for not that many things. Next time, I will just buy less stuff. A friend went to Rio Casino in Las Vegas and went to a bar there and was presented with a bill for $28 for a double vodka drink. He refused it and walked away. One less drink the casino will sell. Multiply that by the number of people who will do the same in the stores, and you see what will happen- volume of products will go down, people will be laid off, and here we go again.
    Reply | Mark as read | Best of... | Permalink  
  • Posted by term2 2 weeks, 5 days ago
    being an engineer, I agree with you totally. Everything eventually runs on just in time to reduce unneeded costs.

    A break in one supply or service chain upsets the whole enchilada and it spreads outwards to many other areas until new supply and service chains are re-established. Biden is STUPID to upset the supply chains and get government involved to change things even more.

    Requiring vaccination on a schedule is a great way to break a labor supply chain and force companies to try and hire people to replace ones it had to fire for not getting vaccinated.

    Unleashing inflation is a great way to cut economic real output as people decide NOT to spend so much money. I just went to costco and was amazed by the $500 bill I got at the register for not that many things. Next time, I will just buy less stuff. A friend went to Rio Casino in Las Vegas and went to a bar there and was presented with a bill for $28 for a double vodka drink. He refused it and walked away. One less drink the casino will sell. Multiply that by the number of people who will do the same in the stores, and you see what will happen- volume of products will go down, people will be laid off, and here we go again.
    Reply | Mark as read | Best of... | Permalink  

FORMATTING HELP

  • Comment hidden. Undo